Kent State +2.5 -110 ***
First, let's discuss why folks would pick CoC here. They have been good at home and just won their home tournament in dramatic fashion. The lone loss has come to UNC, although UNC has been underwhelming compared to expectation so far. Folks are also aware they play at a fast tempo and are a good offensive team.
All that said, I think Kent State comes in here at the right time. According to Kenpom, Kent St is almost 4 points better on a neutral. Someone could tell me I am wrong, but I don't think CoC home court is worth 6.5 points. Both have good dominant SU and ATS lately, but Kent St is 7-1 SU on the road last 8.
The market has adjusted to CoC - Their only ATS loss was as -3 when the game went off against Richmond. However, the opened +2.5/3, so money flooded on them until it got to 3 at closing.
offense Kent - 95, CoC - 74 - Similar offensively
def Kent - 99, CoC 192 - Kent much better, including forcing turnovers at a top 5 rate You can see both Richmond, Va Tech and even Colorado St boast a kenpom def efficiency higher than Kent St, but all three are 184, 240, 256 in opponent turnover rate. Davidson ranks 179 in def eff, and 284 in def TO rate. I like the difference in terms of what Kent St can do differently to take Charleston out of their comfort zone.
Pace both in top 30. This seems to be an advantage for Kent as the pace won't throw them off. Again, comparing the Co St, Rich, Va tech,and add Davidson those tempos are 360, 326, 345. 298
All in all, Kent matches up better to Charleston than Charleston's previous listed opponents. Combine that with the situational spot and think Kent St is good value here.
All the best to everyone.