I think I like your pick, but not for any of the reasons you mentioned. The first game they won at home they had their do it all soon to be NBA player in Halliburton. Injuries have truly decimated this team. Which is why I don't think looking at how they played this team previously will hold water.
Iowa state has been GREAT at the big 12 tournament the last 5 years. But those were talented teams with multiple players either playing in the NBA now or over seas.
What I do believe you are getting with Iowa State is some value though. I think the number has over corrected for the obvious things I mentioned above. Just 2 weeks ago they played AT Oklahoma State and the number was +7. This is a terrible Iowa State team compared to the last 5 years it truly is. But this building will still lean more towards Iowa State. Iowa State fans are known for taking this building over (It probably won't happen to as much of an extent this year but still) The fact that were getting almost the same number that we got at Oklahoma state two weeks ago. Iowa state is the right side even though I won't be participating.