Alright guys, let’s try this again. If you were on South Dakota State on Sunday, you were gypped because of late game antics. If you guys like trends, check out Pony’s post. Summit League overs have been fantastic, defense is optional for the most part in this conference.
https://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/cbb/1762264/cbb-conference-play-trends-that-matter#pi10718=1
Denver @ IPFW (-7.5, 143.5)
Since January of the 2014, IPFW is 11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS, and 7-6 over under. These teams played in early February with IPFW winning 70-63. In that game, Denver had one of their worst halves of basketball of the year. They were down 38-19 in the 1st half. 2nd half they outscored IPFW 44-32. Denver had an awful FT game, they shot 45.5% vs their conference average of 75.2%.
IPFW at home, not very good. They beat South Dakota by 11 (very fluky game when you look at box score), lost by 9 to South Dakota State, lost by 24 to Oral Roberts, beat North Dakota by 4, lost to North Dakota State by 11, beat Western Illinois by 6, and lost to Omaha by 2. This a very mixed bag from them. IPFW in conference at home is putting up 66.43ppg and giving up 70ppg. IPFW as a home favorite is 4-2 ATS and 1-5 O/U.
For Denver, I don’t need to go through the teams they lost by. They generally lose and generally by double digits. Only lost by 2 @ South Dakota and 6 @ Western Illinois, this team stinks. Denver generally covers on the road, that’s because they are mid double-digit dogs which leaves a big back door. Not in this game though. Denver in conference on the road is giving up 83.86 ppg on the road, this is big help for the over. Denver is averaging 73.71 ppg on the road. Denver as a road underdog is 7-6 ATS and 10-3 O/U.
I like IPFW -7.5, they keep beating this team which means it’s a match up issue in favor of IPFW. I think they win by at least 10 here. IPFW wins this 79-69. Strong lean (borderline like) over, I might change this after sleeping on it. Asking 72ish from each team isn’t much here to me despite the weak IPFW scoring.
North Dakota @ Omaha (-5.5, 152.5)
I like this game much more than IPFW game.
These 2 teams have been on and off since February 2013. Omaha is 7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS, and 6-1 O/U. The sharps brought Omaha down from -6, no idea why and I disagree with the move.
These teams played in early January with Omaha winning 66-62. It was North Dakotas lowest amount of points in conference and Omaha’s 3 lowest. Omaha shot 28.6% from 3, 42.6% from the field, and 55.6% FT. All below their conference averages. North Dakota shot 34.5% form the field, 33.3% from 3, and 85% FT. This well below their average field %.
Omaha is at home, they beat South Dakota State by 3, Oral Roberts by 7, Western Illinois by 5 in OT, IPFW by 4, lost to South Dakota by 1, lost to South Dakota State by 8, and beat Denver 23. Omaha is putting up 80 ppg and giving up 75.28ppg. Omaha is 11-2 SU at home and 7-5 ATS. As a home favorite, they are 6-4 ATS and 7-5 ATS at home.
North Dakota is a team I want nothing to do with on the road. Won @ Denver by 11, lost to Oral Roberts by 15, lost to South Dakota State by 21, lost to North Dakota Sate by 9, lost to IPFW by 4, and beat Western Illinois by 3 in OT. North Dakota is putting up 74.83 ppg on the road and giving up 80.67 ppg. On the road, they are 4-11 SU/ATS for the entire season. 2-11 SU/ATS as an away underdog and 4-8 ATS with equal rest. I want nothing to do with this team on the road, sharps can have them.
Both of these teams are over teams. North Dakota is 15-10 to the overs while Omaha is 16-11-1 to the over. North Dakota on the road is 11-4 to the over, ND on the road as an underdog is 9-4. Omaha at home is 7-4-1 to the over and Omaha as a home favorite is 6-3-1 to the over. In conference games, both teams are 9-5 to the over.
Omaha wins this game 84-74. Omaha is fully capable of winning by double digits here. I also like over 152.5. Both teams will get close to the 76ish we need and Omaha will take it to the over. Neither of these team’s force TOs, both are rated 310+ on Ken Pom. Omaha is good 3-point team, ND terrible 3-point defense. North Dakota is a good effective FG % and 2P% team, Omaha doesn’t defend either very well.