Buffalo at Akron (-7.5, 159)
I got this number at 7, I am seeing 7.5s and 8s. In the numbers below, I used the Ken Pom adjusted ratings.
Both of these teams put up points. Both teams are top 50 in scoring offense averaging 75+, the problem is Buffalo’s putrid defense. Thy are ranked #313 in scoring defense. This isn’t bad, this is bottom of the barrel type defense. If you use Ken Pom’s adjusted offense and defense metric, Buffalo offense is #6 in conference (out of 12) while Akron is #1. Adjusted defense, Buffalo is #7 and Akron is #3. Buffalo just plays super-fast with the #6 adjusted temp and take a beating on the defensive end. Akron also is a fast-paced team with the #96 adjusted temp. Playing fast isn’t anything unusual for Akron. Akron in conference play is putting 79.7 ppg and giving up 66.9 ppg. They are boat racing teams. Buffalo in conference play, 77.2 ppg and giving up 75.3 ppg.
Akron likes to shoot 3s, they are #1 in conference hitting 47.3% from 3, Buffalo is average at defending the 3 with the #6 rated 3PT defense. Akron is also #2 in 2PT % shooting while Buffalo has the #8 FG defense. To make things for worse for Buffalo, Akron is hitting nearly 80% FTs and Buffalo fouls a lot. Buffalo is #221 in fewest fouls and #236 in personal fouls per game. You can’t be sending Akron to the line with that many fouls. They will pull away from this game.
Buffalo likes to shoot from the field and are rated #3 in 2PT % in conference, problem is Akron is the #1 rated team in conference in defending the field. Akron’s defensive weakness is the 3 but Buffalo is the 11th best 3PT team in conference. To make things worse for Buffalo, they stink at FT shooting and I can always fade a team in a big mismatch at FT shooting. Buffalo is the 10th best FT shooting team in conference and Akron is an average fouling team.
This Buffalo defense isn’t good and Akron wins this game by 10+. In terms of the total, this line seems super high to me. I am guessing Akron wins 85-73, this game still goes under. The books are adjusting for both the high-flying offenses. Buffalo struggled at Ball state and they are #1 in conference in adjusted D. Buffalo put up points at Central Michigan with the current #5 adjust defense but Central Michigan is #217 in same category for all schools. You have to go back to February 24, 2017 to get a game going over 159. I will only lean under for now, not sure if you will get a 160 again. On Pinnacle, you have extra juice both on the over and under. I am on a nice 12-8 run in these writes up, let's make it 13-8!