I suck and I can't predict these **** games for the most part.
It is probably getting old this season, but wtf is up with the inconsistency of these teams. I am gonna cherry pick the Portland/Pacific Over 129 play that lost by 9 for an easy loser, it never had a chance. Both teams average 70 possessions a game with an offensive eff. of 1.027 and .95. For those who don't know, that is points per off. possession. Defense is about the same, but flipped for the teams, Pacific was better at both which is why they were favored. Just off of those numbers they should score about 137, but you can't go off of just those. There are other factors with strengths and weaknesses on offense and defense, but it is a good starting point. Both teams foul a bunch which is what was part of my handicap for more points and that happened. Both teams shoot 36% and 39% from 3 and give up 34% and 32% which is about average to below average for defense. Here is the **** bullshit I am dealing with this season. Portland shot 5 total 3 pt. attempts in the game. They average making 7 3pt. fgs a game. They took 5 for the game! You got a team that is giving up 34% from 3 and you are shooting 39% from bomb range and you take 5 for the game. That shit is impossible to handicap and the reason I haven't made a max bet all season long. It is going on every night across the board in numerous games with head scratching results. I usually would have had like 5 to 10 max bets by now pregame. This season, I haven't made one, because you get these results with no explanation to why they happened. I would like to ask the Pilots coach why his team only attempted 5 3s for the game when they are one of the best from distance in the nation. Misery needs some company, I hope others are noticing the same wacky ass shit in their losses this season.
Lastly, thank you for live play. If it wasn't for live play I would have probably pitched the college ball season and moved on to golf and the Aussie Open. I went 4-7 pregame, down on pregame bets for the year at about 12-15 games under .500. Worst I have been since I started betting.
St. Louis first half, will play +4...good spot for them after a big home win for Dayton and a quick turn around to the road vs. a well rested St. Louis team with solid inside D and their biggest home game of the season so far. I expect them to come out on fire getting those off. boards containing Toppin for at least a little while. I don't trust their FT shooting to get them through the game though, it is like the have a team full of Shaqs, **** ridiculous.
Fairfield +5.5...Fairfield is the better team in many different stats, especially on defense and rebounding. I expect them to be in this game from start to finish and they have shown the ability to compete and win on the road. Iona is giving this many points on name alone because they are usually one of the top dogs in the conference. I don't see it this year, they need to figure shit out on both sides of the ball. Iona is extremely inconsistent and they have one win against a team better than 300s in power rankings.
Just those two for the short card Friday, good luck y'all. Enjoy payday.