Ohio @ Buffalo (-6.5, 154.5)
Mason McMurray F-questionable, missed last 3 games with back (not a loss at all, bad stats)
Buffalo is 8-4 at home while Ohio is 2-2 on the road. Ohio has not traveled much at all this season; this is only their 5th road game of the year and last road game was January 4 (during winter break). This is the first game for them being in the new semester. Last 4 matchups, Buffalo is 4-0 and have blown out Ohio when playing at home. These games are 3-1 O/U with a combined point total of 167.75 (lowest point total of 139). Buffalo has played the superior SOS at 146 while Ohio is at 222 (via teamrankings.com). Buffalo hasn’t traveled much all season; they have played only 4 road games all year. Buffalo has put up 81 ppg at home and has allowed 75 ppg. Ohio on the road 66.25 PF and 61 PGA. Ohio has play St. Bonaventure (11-5 currently), Iona (3-8 currently), Villanova, and Western Michigan. The St. Bonaventure game is misleading final score, they shot 15.8% from 3 and first game of the year. Ohio hasn’t been good on the road for the most part.
Stat wise, PPG and PPGA for Buffalo 77.7 and 77.2. Ohio, 69.1 and 70.2 (wash).
Scoring offense and defense Buffalo, 26 and 321. Ohio is 181 and 171 (relative wash). FG% and FG% defense for Buffalo is 158 and 287. Ohio is 90 and 162 (medium edge Ohio) 3PT per game, 3PT%, 3PT defense, 3PT made, and total 3PT made for Buffalo; 51, 148, 230, 50, 69. Ohio; 55, 80, 187, 98, 78. (relative wash/slight edge Buffalo because bad Ohio SOS). FT%, FT attempts, FT made for Buffalo; 333, 161, and 246. Ohio; 224, 289, 295(slight edge Buffalo). Personal fouls per game and fewest fouls for Buffalo; 242 and 207. Ohio; 173 and 144 (edge Ohio). Total rebounds and total rebounds per game for Buffalo 51 and 12. Ohio is 248 and 230 (stat gap edge Buffalo, very fat stat gap favoring Buffalo in ORPG of 3 vs 234). APG, blocked shots per game, SPG, total blocks, total assists, total steals for Buffalo; 24, 64, 29, 69, 37, 38. Ohio; 56, 242, 163, 246, 89, 181 (all favoring Buffalo).
Buffalo possessions #14 77.5, Ohio #253 70.1. This is why Buffalo has so many turnovers and is so low on scoring defense.
I will lay the -6.5 (can get -105 at FanDuel) with Buffalo. They have played the better SOS, by far superior rebounding team, go up and down the floor, superior shot blocking team, Ohio rarely playing on the road, Buffalo being the slightly better 3PT team, and Buffalo blowing out this team at home the last 2 years. My only concern is the FT shooting, if this game is close, I don’t trust Buffalo much but this game shouldn’t be close since the way they put up points.
Total? Over seems to be the play, these games get high scoring and we know Buffalo will be able to put up points here and can offset for a Ohio team that doesn't put up a lot of points. Do we trust Ohio to put 70ish points here? I do. I like the over also.
Final score, Buffalo 90-75.
I am 6-2 on these write ups, lets make it 8-2!