Podcast results through Sun, Jan 26:
Dave Essler...6-1 best bets + 1-0 likes (7-1)
AJ Hoffman...5-3 best bets + 16-11 likes (22-15)
Brad..............5-3 best bets + 8-8 likes (13-11)
Sleepy...........4-8 best bets + 0-1 likes (4-9)
MacKenzie....4-1 NBA
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Picks for Jan 28-30:
I'm listening to this at 9pm ET - Brad mentions they taped it Monday afternoon. So I'm sure I'm about to hear some picks I missed for today that have already tipped off.
loser Florida St at Virginia (already tipped off at 7pm) Sleepy J BEST BET Florida State +1 (this line closed at -2) Final score: Virginia 61 - FSU 56.
loser Purdue at Rutgers (proj. -3 / 119... it closed at -3 / 121) AJ LIKE under.
WINNER / loser Butler at Georgetown (proj +2.5 / 143.5) Brad BEST BET Butler. AJ LIKE over.
McKenzie NBA Tues night. Lakers vs. Clippers (this game was postponed by NBA earlier today)
loser WVU at Texas Tech (proj. +2 / 128) Sleepy BEST BET under (buy price 126) AJ lean under too.
San Diego St. at New Mexico (proj +10) AJ and Brad lean New Mexico.
WINNER Indiana at Penn State (proj. -5 / 144.5) AJ LIKE Penn State. Brad LIKE Penn State. Brad still thinks that Big Ten teams are having trouble winning on the road. If he'd been following our Big 10 home team fade, he'd know this isn't true.
Marquette at Xavier (proj pk) Brad and AJ lean Marquette.
push UCF at Memphis (proj -1.5) Dave Essler BEST BET on UCF. (game closed at +2)
WINNER and loser Santa Clara at Gonzaga (proj -14 / 155, buy price 158) AJ BEST BET over. AJ LIKE Gonzaga I graded this a loser as AJ checked in before game time to update his picks since the line was -18 by game night. However, both of AJ's alternate suggestions (posted on last page of comments here) lost. Zags were only up by 4 at halftime - and won the game by 15.
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Brad gave a deserved shout out to @cphanes78 on twitter. He's keeping records (and has been for awhile) however, he's only tracking best bets, so I'll continue this to provide LIKES as well. I've updated my best bet records from him as I had missed two podcasts at the start of the season.
Picks for Jan 24-26th
WINNER & WINNER Marquette @ Butler (proj. -6 / 138) AJ LIKE Marquette and LIKE over. Butler falling. Marquette rising.
WINNER McKenzie NBA BEST BET - Denver +2.5 @ New Orleans.
WINNER Illinois @ Michigan (proj. -3 / 139) AJ LIKE Illinois. "Illinois already strong on the road. Michigan is a mess".
Villanova @ Providence - AJ: all metrics match up for 'Nova but no action.
Kentucky @ Texas Tech - loser Brad LIKE Texas Tech. AJ LIKE Kentucky WINNER
Richmond @ Dayton - AJ and Brad lean Richmond. AJ "Dayton is getting pricey".
loser Baylor @ Florida (proj. +1.5 / 129.5) Diamond Dave Essler BEST BET Florida. Brad BEST BET and AJ LIKE on Florida.
Notre Dame @ Florida State (proj. -10 / 140) AJ lean FSU. Brad lean Notre Dame.\
loser UMKC @ Cal-Baptist (proj. -9, buy price up to -11) AJ BEST BET on Cal-Baptist "one of the most undervalued teams in the country 12-4 ATS, 10-1 last 11, 5-0 has big favorite and has won 3 straight as a dog.
loser Kansas @ Tennessee (buy price -13 or better) Sleepy BEST BET on Kansas. He thinks this may come out at -9 due to public overreaction over Kansas suspensions.
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PIcks for Jan 21-22
loser Eastern Michigan at Bowling Green - Sleepy BEST BET OVER 133.5 (buy price up to 135.5) This total is at 136, above his buy price, as I write this at 2:30pm ET. Update: it's now at 137.5 at 3:15pm.
Sleepy checked in (on page 7 of the comments) to say he's still comfortable with this pick and the Butler pick below.
loser Butler @ Villanova (proj. -1.5 / 131) Sleepy LIKE Butler +4.5 but this line is currently at 3.5 on Tues afternoon. Update: now at +3. Sleepy is a market mover today. --- AJ lean Villanova and under. Brad lean Butler and under. (Brad references here that he was 3-0 on best bets before he lost his best bet on Butler under last week. Therefore, I have added that win back to his record above since they did a podcast I missed before I started these cliff notes.
crossfire ---> Florida @ LSU (proj -3.5 / 145) loser AJ LIKE LSU -3 Brad LIKE Florida +3 WINNER
Illinois @ Purdue (proj. -6 / 122) AJ lean Illinois and under, says he would be a like, but doesn't want to go against the home court trends in the Big Ten this year. Brad lean Purdue.
loser Texas Tech @ TCU (proj. +2 / 122) AJ "weakest of my" LIKEs on Texas Tech. TCU bad against good competition. Chris Beard 5-0-1 in this matchup at TT coach. Brad agrees and goes to LIKE on Texas Tech, although it's "not a like like". I'm not sure what that means.
WINNER NBA Tues night. Mackenzie Rivers projects a pick 'em for LA Clippers vs. Dallas. Great handicap on LA Clippers having two premier defenders against teams with only one premier offensive weapon. BEST BET Clippers (currently +1.5)
loser Rutgers @ Iowa (proj. -6 / 140) Brad LIKE under. Rutgers has covered 10 in a row, and has an elite defense, but offense not so much. AJ lean to Iowa and agrees on the LIKE under. Brad thinks the market has still not adjusted to the Rutgers totals. Still value on the unders.
loser Penn State @ Michigan (proj. -4 / 148) Brad BEST BET Michigan up to 6. AJ LIKE on MIchigan.
WINNER 77-70 Arkansas @ Miss St - Essler BEST BET cancelled on Mississippi State - anything under a possession is buy price (-2.5 or lower). This is currently at -4, above Essler's buy price. Since this was a above his buy price, I'm grading it as a LIKE.
push Providence @ Seton Hall (proj. -12 / 137) AJ LIKE under, lean Providence.
loser North Carolina at Virginia Tech (up to -13.5) Sleepy BEST BET on VA Tech. UNC stinks, historically, for their program.
WINNER Alabama @ Vanderbilt - AJ BEST BET cancelled on Under 162 (buy price 159). Alabama will get their points. AJ is betting Vandy does NOT get their points. Vandy offense is terrible - as heard by the metrics he went over - without Aaron Neismith. As of noon ET on Wed, this total is at 152. Pass. **Like AJ's Vandy under, this was above Dave's buy price, I'm grading it as a LIKE. Rejoice, the bookies got destroyed on this one. Opened at 162 and was bet down 10 points before it closed at 154. Another reason AJ deserves the win here... he let everyone know well in advance to take the Vandy team total - under 73.
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Picks for Jan 17-19
Friday night - Wisconsin at Michigan State (proj -6 / 131) Brad (BEST BET? no) Spartans off a historically bad game vs. Purdue. 2nd worst (by spread) in 15 years. MSU 59% ATS after failing to cover by 10+. Off a 25+ point loss... 3-0 SU and ATS. Big Ten home teams are 34-6 SU and 64% ATS. Huge rebounding mismatch favors MSU. MSU average margin of victory in home conference is 14 ppg. As OneTrikPony noted below in comments, they projected -6, but the current line is -9.5 and it has been since open. I'm not sure this would be a BB or LIKE at that number, but who knows. Update: (comments page 5) AJ replied that he was off MSU at -9.5. Brad clarified at the opening of the following podcast that this would have been a lean at -9.5. Therefore I'm taking this off his best bet record.
Saturday - 12pm Ohio State at Penn State (proj pick em, its posted at PSU +1.5) AJ think OSU is far better team, but way too many concerns. Brad points out that PSU is struggling lately too. Both guys lean to the under, AJ lean Penn St. AJ points out that PSU has been immune to the home/road splits we're seeing in the Big Ten.
WINNER 1:30pm Auburn at Florida (proj -1 / 139 LIVE -2 / 140) Brad and AJ LIKE and Dave Essler BEST BET on Florida. Brad thinks Auburn is overrated, can't shoot 3s or FTs. Florida much tougher schedule so far. Auburn has been lucky and got exposed last game (first loss) so Brad continues to fade them. AJ agrees. Auburn has not won at Florida since 1996. Florida won 22 of last 25 ATS in this matchup. AJ lean over. Essler 'youth of Gators over experience of Tigers". Auburn off 3 days rest off tough loss. Florida off 3 days rest, and no travel, after beating Ole MIss. UF has revenge angle after SEC champ last year. Auburn terrible FT%.
3:45pm Oregon at Washington State (proj +1.5 / 135 LIVE +2 / 131) AJ lean Oregon. Brad lean WSU.
WINNER 4pm Kentucky at Arkansas (proj -1.5, LIVE -1.5) AJ LIKE Kentucky because they have "dominated this matchup". Interesting metric here - Arkansas one of the best at defending the 3, but Kentucky is one of worst in country at taking 3s. (340th in nation) Style-wise, it's good KY. Brad upgrades to a LIKE. KY off a loss under Calipari are 46% ATS, nothing great. But still a good spot for KY - not a convincing handicap. Brad said this was a top lean, and you can hear it in his handicap.
loser 4pm Houston at Wichita State (proj -4 / 137 LIVE -3 / 138) Brad defers to AJ's Houston knowledge. AJ admits he doesn't have a feel for Houston. AJ LIKE on the over, lean Wichita. Both teams great on offensive boards. Wichita solid at home - VCU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss. Brad likes matchup - Houston off vs. Wichita defense and the opposite is both teams weakness.
loser 5pm Northwestern at Illinois (proj 132 / LIVE 133.5) AJ BEST BET on the under. NW avg 58ppg on road. Illinois at home - opponents avg 50ppg. Ugly game, NW struggling to score.
loser and WINNER 6pm Louisville at Duke (proj -8 / 136 LIVE -7 / 137.5) Brad and AJ LIKE on Duke. Top 5 in KenPom offense and defense - 10 guys averaging 14+ min per game. Louisville is not a deep team - 3rd on the road, 1 went to OT. Louisville unimpressive wins. Duke only had one bad spot vs. Clemson, otherwise winning big. Average home win by 26. AJ "smaller LIKE" on the over.
McKenzie jumped in with a Thursday night NBA pick (they recorded Thur afternoon PST) Boston +10 vs. Milwaukee. This was a winner but I'm not sure how many listeners (less than 1%?) had an opportunity to follow since it tipped off shortly after they finished the podcast. Even during the pod, they're not sure when it's going to be released. McKenzie's handicap was great, to his credit. The timing was less than great.
WINNER Sunday 1pm Minnesota at Rutgers (proj 128.5) Sleepy BEST BET on the under, buy price 127.5 -- terrible spot for Gophers coming off two big wins with two look aheads coming up - Ohio St and Mich St. Rutgers great defense and home off 4 days rest. Rutgers in the 300s in nation on 3 point shot metrics, but 35th in defense. Rutgers doesn't shoot FTs and if they do, they stink 63%.
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Picks for Jan 14-16
loser Duke @ Clemson (proj. +12 / 134) Line is now +10.5 -- AJ and Brad lean Duke. "Will any Clemson students be back from New Orleans?" Sleepy BEST BET under "down to 131". Sleepy believes Clemson's OT win vs. UNC + Clemson loss to LSU = get up spot for Clemson hoops. Clemson is 245th in pace. Duke allowing 56.8 pppg and has concerns with Clemson offense - esp against top, and even medium, ranked defenses. Duke also in a look-ahead spot with Louisville up next. Duke not shooting 3s this season - 250th or something in that metric. "everything points to under." (Sleepy's handicap was spot on. This was a get up spot for Clemson and a let down spot for Duke. Clemson won this game by 8 - and it went over, by almost 20.)
loser Louisville @ Pitt (proj +5) AJ and Brad lean Louisville and AJ lean under. First game was a laugher, PItt scored 4 points in the last 9 minutes of that game. Brad is a LIKE on under, now 128.5 **important, they were projecting this total at 123. I'd imagine theyre chomping at the bit to take under 128. Brad Powers or AJ Hoffman - what do you think?
VCU @ Dayton (proj -10 / 140) now at -8 / 138 - AJ and Brad lean VCU. Brad leans under. Brad sees correlation. If you like Dayton, go over. If you like VCU, go under.
WINNER Maryland @ Wisconsin (proj -1 / 123) - AJ LIKE Wisconsin. MD has shown nothing on the road. Wisc typically good home court. Wisc 13th best FTs. Wisc has covered 5 of last 6 in series. Also a lean on the over. Brad makes a dinner bet taking the under. Brad: "Big Ten home teams are 30-3 SU, 23-9 ATS" Also rips off a bunch of trends that point to the under.
loser & WINNER Wed night - Seton Hall @ Butler (proj -5 / 126) Brad BEST BET on Under 126. Butler 11-5 under, Seton Hall defense picking up 6-2 under L8. Butler 330th in tempo. 2 top ten defenses in college hoops. AJ LIKE under (was under consideration for his best bet) and LIKE Seton Hall who "continues to dominate defensively". Butler lags shot blockers, weak against Seton Hall's size down low. Brad thinks we'll see a better number for Seton Hall, perhaps 6. Seton Hall weakness - FT shooting. AJ calls Butler "best team in Big East".
WINNER (line was +6.5) Virginia @ Florida State (proj -8.5 / 110) Brad LIKE Virginia +8.5 "buying low" on UVA. (buy price 7.5). Biggest dog role for UVA in 7 years. 2-11 ATS L13. Premium on them gone after back to back loses to BC and Syracuse. UVA last in the nation in pace. 353rd out of 353. Premium is rising on FSU. AJ lean Virginia. Totally diff team than last year - have gone from 2nd in Ken Pom offense last year to 229th this year. McKenzie pops in with a line up at Circa, "Virginia to win the NIT at 200-1". Brad likes "the field". AJ likes Utah State to win the NIT (Circa 25-1).
WINNER Indiana @ Rutgers (proj -3.5) - played poorly and still only lost by 3 at Indiana, now Rutgers at home. Rutgers #1 defensive rebounding team. Essler BEST BET on Rutgers.
loser Auburn @ Alabama (proj 156, buy price up to 160) Sleepy BEST BET over. Bama plays at breakneck speed, shooting tons of 3s. Auburn also fast paced. Bama defense is 335th in nation. Annoying game since "both teams foul a lot". Both teams also in top 100 in assists and top 60 in offensive rebounds. Brad "bonus pick" - Alabama beats Auburn. WINNER. Nice call Brad!
WINNER Thur night - Santa Clara @ Gonzaga (proj -19) AJ BEST BET on Gonzaga. SC has good record, but has played no one - 352th in schedule. Zags have 11 of 18 wins by 20 or more. When SC does step up in class, they get smoked (San Fran, Nevada, Stanford). Zags have won 19 straight in the series. 7-0 by 31 avg margin against Herb Sendak at S Clara. Only concern is a possible look ahead with BYU next. Tons of metrics point to Gonzaga. Brad, despite concern with huge line and BYU two days later, comes to agreement on the pick. UPDATE: Zags won by 50!
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Picks for January 11 These are not the order in which they were covered on the pod, but I put them in time order.
WINNER 12pm Sat: Ohio St @ Indiana (+2.5 / 131): Essler BEST BET Indiana
WINNER 12pm Sat: Georgetown @ Villanova (-8) - AJ LIKE Villanova although he was projecting -6.5
WINNER 1pm Sat: Baylor @ Kansas (-7.5 / 131) - Brad BEST BET under 131
loser 2pm Sat: Two leans but a strong cap from AJ: Virginia Tech -2 and under 143.5. Brad LIKE NC State
WINNER 2:!5pm: Penn State @ Wisconsin (projected 138, its now live at 135): Sleepy BEST BET under buy price 133.5
WINNER 4pm Marquette @ Seton Hall (-6): AJ LIKE Seton Hall
loser 6pm (sorry, this was the wrong time) Georgia @ Auburn (-11): Brad LIKE Georgia.
WINNER 6pm Texas Tech @ WVU (-4.5 / 127.5): AJ LIKE under 128. They were projecting WVU -6.5
WINNER 8pm Cal Baptist (projected -1, its +3) @ Grand Canyon: AJ BEST BET Cal-Baptist
loser 10pm Long Beach St @ UCSB (-13): Sleepy BEST BET UCSB to "crush" LBSU. Take it up to -13.5
notes: AJ recs Seton Hall going forward in Big East play. Brad gives out a free analytics site barttorvik.com comparable to KenPom. McKenzie gave out a Friday night NBA game with San Antonio pick 'em over Memphis. It did not come through. Matt Christensen BEST BET for the Oscars - The Joker for Best Picture.
WINNER Football: FCS game: James Madison vs. North Dakota State: Brad LIKE under 49. Cold and high winds in Texas for 11am local time start + a unique spot for both teams. They've been off for 3 weeks.
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Picks for Jan 4-5
2pm Sat Jan 4 - Florida State (projected +6) at Louisville - AJ LIKE Florida State WINNER and Under LOSER
2pm Sat Jan 4 - Villanova at Marquette (proj -1) - Brad and Sleepy BEST BET Marquette WINNER
2pm Sat Jan 4 - Iowa vs Penn St (in Philly) - AJ LIKE Penn State WINNER
4pm Sat Jan 4 - West Virginia at Kansas (proj -8.5) - AJ LIKE WVU WINNER
8pm Sat Jan 4 - Texas at Baylor (proj total 131) - Brad LIKE under 131 WINNER
10pm Sat Jan 4 - San Diego St at Utah St (proj -2.5) - Brad LIKE Utah St. LOSER AJ LIKE under (proj 131) LOSER
8pm Sun Jan 5 - Purdue at Illinois (buy price to -3) AJ and Essler BEST BET Illinois WINNER
couple of notes:
AJ recs West Virginia as a possible March sleeper team to keep an eye on. Brad is talking about "Free Throw Defense %" metric. Brad also made reference at the start of the pod about "not listening to ourselves talk" and keeping it short. Later, he did a very brief RJ impersonation. I starting to think most of these guys who work with RJ see exactly the same things we hear.