I had a bounce back 5-3 Sunday after a frustrating losing day Saturday. Lost so many that I was favored to win through the majority of the game or half that just fell apart at the end. Tough pill to swallow when it happens multiple times in one day, but that shit happens. The longer you do this the more times you will have it go like that. It is part of gambling and handicapping, roll with the punches and get back in there. That 3 ball and fouls are the biggest variance swingers. St. Louis couldn't miss from 3 in the last half of my first half under which looking like an easy winner, it quickly swung to not even close and it flew over. Same went for SC Upstate under 56 yesterday, they shot 53% overall and 41% from 3 against a solid Furman squad. SC Upstate has a weak offense, but not yesterday. I would make the same play again knowing in the long run it is a winning play and that is all that matters. Enough of my bitching rant, here is what I like for Tuesday.
Bryant +6.5...I was hoping this would be around 4.5, it looks like a small Christmas present came early. I have been on Bryant a couple times this season. I like their rebounding, improved defense, and assist work. Fordham struggles from the FT line and offense in general. They hang their hat on defense and that is what has won them games. I think Bryant has a solid enough defense and Fordham's dicey offense can keep them in the low to mid 60s giving Bryant a great chance to cover this number. Fordham has hit 70 pts just once this season.
UMBC/Towson Under 127.5 small and first half under 59...This game has ass grinder all over it. Two teams that struggle to score consistently. Neither team wants to push the pace and only seem to play higher scoring games vs higher paced teams. When each teams plays a slower team, they gladly play the half court game and try to grind out buckets. I can see one of these teams putting up a low or mid 50 score giving the under a great chance.
St. Joes first half, will play +7.5 or higher...Big time rivalry game, I expect to stay tight for a while. Temple's offense doesn't give them much margin as they aren't that explosive. St. Joes has a shit record, but they have played some really good competition and they have hung around in a couple of them.
Coppin first half, will play +10 or higher...Under the radar cover machine, they have even pulled a couple upsets. They are the most improved team of the early season from last year. They defend the 3 ball very well and they will be facing a bunch of them against Davidson.
UNI first half +5...CU hasn't found it's feet on offense this season. They have looked out of sync in a few games and let lesser competition hang around especially in the first half. In altitude, I would prefer any road team in the first half while they still have their wind. It worries me that CU may be extra focused here as they were terrible against Kansas. Their problem is Bey, their most talented forward is playing very passive and not looking to score. CU has been giving up the 3 this year and UNI is gonna take plenty of those. UNI is also no slouch on the D either, 81st in def. eff.
Indiana/UConn Over 142.5...Two high paced teams with high off. eff. ratings. Both teams combine an average of 51 FT attempts per game. I expect two aggressive offenses who can score in a variety of ways from the floor and get to the line. They also are teams that have been taking care of the ball this season so you shouldn't see a bunch of wasted possessions.
Tenn. State +6...TSU is a solid squad that wasn't expected to be. They have a much better off. eff. rating than Ark. Little Rock while about even in def. eff. Ark. Little Rock looks like it has the better defense by points per game, but they just play at a slower pace. Ark. Little Rock doesn't seem like they should be favored this much against a team that I don't think they are better than. I know they have a good home court advantage, but I feel like this is too many points.
Baylor/Butler Over first half 61.5...This isn't the usual play for these teams, but they have weapons to score all over the floor. Both teams can score inside and out. Both are dropping 3s at a sweet rate this season. Baylor will get out and run early. I don't like their extreme bog down the offense with a lead shit, got a push against AZ because of that last game. They did it versus Washington this season too. They are fast starters though averaging a solid 37 pts per game. Butler is scoring early too getting 35 a game themselves. Both teams are in the top 50 in off. eff. I think Butler's def. numbers are bit better than they acutally are at D due to the weaker offenses they have played. Stanford is probably the best offense they have played. I also like the fact that both teams have taken care of the ball this season, so they manage to get a shot off on most offensive possessions.
TT/Louisville Under 130.5...Under venue in MSG. Louisville has really stepped up the D since getting into the meat of their schedule. TT still may be without their best scorer which leaves them with one reliable outside threat. I know TT will try to bog down the pace and Louisville has recently gotten a couple comfy wins recently playing that style of ball so I think they will be just fine in another slow paced game. Louisville has been comfortable keeping the game slow and ugly with a lead as well and as the healthier team in better form, I see them just keeping TT off the scoreboard and running offense and clock every possession. I lean Louisville -7 as well, I don't see how TT gets to 60 in the game. If I were to predict a score, I can see 67-57 win for Louisville and the under. I'll place a smaller wager on the side as well.
That is it for tomorrow, I noticed the St. Joes line as already dropped to 12.5, looks like a 7.5 first half won't happen. I would probably throw a smaller on on a 7 if it is out though. Enjoy the games everyone.