3-0 with a push on Thursday. The Auburn 2nd half play was dicey as they continued to turn the ball over and miss 3s. Finally they started going to the hoop and made the comeback and happened to nail a couple late FTs to cover. Finally I am getting those ones to fall my way. There has been a couple days this season where I get none of those close ones along with some bad beats. That shit happens and it is frustrating, but it is slowly starting to even out my way along with easy winners. It makes for great days like today and the big day Wed. Here is what I am betting on pregame for Friday.
CMU/Tenn Martin Over first half, will play 78 or lower...It isn't very often I play a first half over compared to the whole game, but both of these teams don't really play a feel portion of the game. CMU averaging 47 in the first and 47 in the 2nd. Tenn. Martin is actually averaging more in the first rather than the 2nd which is rare for a team. Pace will be relentless with piss poor defense by each side. Both teams can shoot and shoot FTs well. At first, I was leaning CMU, but I can never lay 13 points with a team that is content to only focus on offense. I hope this full game gets bet down overnight so I can get a good number in the morning.
SF Austin first half +6 higher and +11 for game...SF Austin leads the nation in opp. turnovers per possession. Bama is 308th in off. turnovers per possession. Bama can get margin on teams they out rebound and steal extra possessions. They won't be able to dominate the boards as SFA is better. SFA out rebounded Duke who is a prolific rebounding team. SFA played a game under their belt after the awesome finish to a Duke upset, why not pull another one here against a Bama team that can go cold from the field at any time and without those off. boards, I don't see them winning big here. Gonna ride the hot team getting a good amount of points. W and W, got those late turnovers baby!
Bryant -1...Columbia is soft and don't make the hustle plays. Bryant will kill them on the boards, won't turn the ball over a ton and win this thing in a scrappy fashion. Columbia is missing one of their best scorers putting everything on the shoulders of their point guard. Over the last few seasons, Columbia has been a bad road team too, just 4 road wins combined over the last two seasons and they don't have any this season. Bryant is a no name team playing an Ivy league school, which is why this line is only -1. They knocked off Cornell already, only by one, but they shot terrible from the FT line or it could have been an easy win. Give me the home team in a tight one. W
Dartmouth first half +4...Dartmouth has the defense to hold down the poor offense of USF and keep this game low and tight. They also rebound well enough to not give up easy 2nd chance points to USF. Dartmouth is solid from 3 while that has been USF's weakness on defense. USF has had some good 3 point shooting nights this season, which is the only way I see this one losing. USF has already done it to me this season, but I will bank more often than not they can't shoot. USF burnt me against Loyola and Wofford from 3. W
TCU first half -2.5...Reason for the first half here is I have watched a few TCU games and I don't like the way they close games with a lead. They really bog down their offense and play the clock and run terrible offense. They have been money in the first half as they start off strong and build a lead. They are +9 in 1st half margin. Their defense has been great and they share the ball sitting 31st in assists per possession. I will see if they make 2nd half adjustments throughout the season with a lead, which they should with the solid coach they have. USC have come out sleepy versus a few teams this season, they can't afford that here, TCU will jump all over them. It tells me the coach is giving a shit speech in the locker room before the game, haha. L
Pepperdine/Idaho State Over 147.5...This total is simply too low. Last year this total was 158.5 between these two teams. Idaho State's new coach doesn't have them playing at a snails pace. In his last coaching gig at lower level basketball, he had a bunch of high scoring games. ISU's possessions are down this season, but they played Air Force and Wyoming early on, they average just 69 possessions. Their last game against Santa Clara was 78, which tells me they will move quicker when they get a team that will let them. Both teams can bang the 3 pretty well, especially Pepperdine. Pepperdine plays no defense and has a great offense. I would also lean ISU and the plus 14. They are the better rebounding team by far and those extra possessions can keep them in this thing. This total is just too low for a Pepperdine game. L...a late key 5 sec call on Idaho State down ten with 1 min left costed the over opportunity, go zero foul game after that
Louisville/Pitt Over first half, will play 58 or lower...I don't trust Pitt trying to shoot 3s in the 2nd half when they are down in the 2nd half trying to get back in it, which is why I am not playing the full game as usual. Louisville isn't spectacular against 2s, I think Pitt can get some paint points to at least get us 26. Louisville will probably less intense on defense after the Michigan game and I think we are getting a lower total here due to the way that one played out. Pitt has great defensive numbers this season, but they have played shit offenses.
Good luck everyone, enjoy the games. If I have time I will post a card for Saturday tomorrow night, it is usually a monster one, probably no write ups, but I always do my homework.