I failed with the time and/or energy to get my plays posted in a timely enough fashion (everyone in my house is battling an illness all at once)....and I'm afraid my usual obvious plays have devolved by now. I got the MAAC totals last night...if any of you guys were looking ahead you might have hopped on last night as well. Siena Under 134 and Niagara Under 165 I got last night as well as Canisius Over 131.
There might be similar numbers available now I'm not sure...or maybe buy a bit, tease, play it smaller, or just go with your gut.
850 Siena/Rider Under 133/134
Siena and Rider are going in opposite directions and while the latter and home team here are the "class" of the MAAC this season they're off 3 straight losses and missing their identity. Siena has won 3 in a row while Rider has lost 3 in a row...and the Saints have done so by absolutely suffocating the other team's offense and allowing an average of 51ppg over the streak. This is also an odd spot where this is their one and only matchup. Rider is the one the most up tempo offenses in the entire country and attempts to get up the court and get it down low and up and in as fast as possible. Siena is the opposite and has been the dominating force making their opponents play their game as of late. Rider also can't shoot 3s, doesn't care to shoot them anyway, and Siena is league best at stopping deep shots. I'd also pick the Saints to potentially win this outright, but balk due to the Broncos ability to get second chances on the offensive glass and subsequently get to the line often. Should be close and a slugfest.
844 Niagara/Iona Under 164/165
At least the Siena line has potential to be wrong due to Rider being able to play a different game and force Siena along. This line is just lazy as hell. This isn't how Iona is playing and Niagara is a dead nut Under road team. Capitalize on lazy mid major lines and dominate the cash and since it's small potatoes it rarely adjusts accordingly. Just over like 500 bets on a game like this so no matter how pathetic a total they hang the liability is mostly moot...especially compared to the handle simply on LA/Philly also this afternoon. Would anyone...even the bookmakers...be shocked if the winner of this game has 75 points?? Nah
845 Canisius/St. Peter's Over 131
Another first MAAC season match up oddly...and not a lot to say...MAAC plays for me are usually Unders. St. Peter's is reeling and while they play wildly slow a la Siena they will be more willing to go with the flow of Canisius as their offense is stagnant as is. St. Peter's isn't good at much of anything on offense so this could be interesting per se, but I have 73-63 so I like the value.
307648 Holy Cross/Lafayette Under 138 (-120)
Bill Carmody offense in a rematch should use most of the shot clock each time down the floor. They also don't turn the ball over and can't make free throws...both aspects I love when analyzing Under plays. Meanwhile Lafayette is one of the worst on offensive glass and is the ACTUAL country worst at FT attempted per FG attempted.
307647 Holy Cross -1
Crusader season sweep....just a team a good bit better than their opponent and should get the sweep today with back cut screen insanity.