NOTE: Statistics for TEAMS scheduled to play tonight are aggregated over the LAST 10 GAMES for each team. |
TEAM |
ATS WINS |
PTS FOR |
PTS AGNST |
WIN MARGIN |
OVERS |
FG% |
REB |
3PTS MADE |
Michigan |
7 |
74 |
61.3 |
12.7 |
6 |
46.04 |
34.8 |
8.4 |
Villanova |
8 |
84.7 |
68 |
16.7 |
6 |
47.75 |
37.9 |
12.6 |
Setting the Stage
NCAA Tournament 2018, Championship Game
Michigan vs. Villanova
San Antonio, TX – 8:20pm local time (Central)/9:20pm Eastern/6:20pm Pacific
Where to Watch
This NCAA Championship Game match-up will air live on TBS and stream live on the TBS app.
The Breakdown
The 2017-18 college basketball season officially comes to a close tonight at the Alamodome in San Antonio, and when the confetti rains down from the recently renovated south Texas stadium, it will fall on the winning shoulders of the Villanova Wildcats.
What else is there to say about Villanova head coach Jay Wright’s team, really? They’ve been the best team all together in this year’s tournament. They’ve covered as a favorite each and every game and stood up to the pressure that past #1 seeds have succumbed to. This group has overcome every challenge presented to this point, and so it is fitting that tonight, their season-long crusade will conclude with a triumphant trophy celebration.
Am I overlooking the Wolverines? Absolutely not; but in the end, Michigan’s fantastic season of over-achievement will fall just short due to the overall strength of tonight’s opponent and the disappointing free throw shooting that just can not be counted on when the underdogs will need it most.
One important to remember when taking everything into consideration for tonight’s game is this – the 2018 three-seeded Wolverines have had perhaps the rosiest five-game path the title game ever. Through five games in a bracket, Michigan is the first team in tournament history to reach the national championship game without playing a team seeded fifth or better.
The Michigan State Spartans are the last Big 10 team to win the big game. That was 18 years ago (2000). And after 1,259 games in his college coaching career, Michigan’s John Beilein is one game away from his first national title.
Unfortunately for Wolverine fans, with the entire east coast still watching TBS well past midnight tonight, when that final buzzer sounds and the season comes to an end, it will, sadly, be another case of “maybe next year” for Beilein and Big Blue.
My numbers suggest that Michigan has less than a 25% chance to win this game, an unfavorably low percentage for an underdog in a tournament title game and one that does not present nearly enough value for me to support the Wolverines here. My predicative factors favor the Wildcats by at least 8-10 points tonight, estimating a 69-79 final, which will allow favorite tickets to cash and climb over the posted total.
Accordingly, I’ve backed VILLANOVA on the ML, ATS and taken the OVER tonight in this decisive title game.
Total Trends
Michigan:
Over is 6-4 in its last 10 when the total is between 140-149.5
Over is 6-3 in its last 9 when lined as an underdog
Over is 7-5 in its last 12 tournament games
Over is 8-6 in its last 14 vs. teams scoring 77 or more PPG after 15 or more games
Over is 26-11 in its last 37 after allowing 60 points or less
Villanova:
Over is 10-1 in its last 11 games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game.
Over is 13-4 in its last 17 games following a straight up win.
Over is 15-5 in its last 20 overall.
Over is 9-3 in its last 12 vs. Big Ten.
Over is 19-7 in its last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 15-6 in its last 21 games following a ATS win.
Over is 7-3 in its last 10 non-conference games.
Over is 7-3 in its last 10 neutral site games.
ATS Trends
Michigan:
1-4 ATS in its last 5 Monday games.
17-20 ATS in its last 37 after allowing 60 points or less
Villanova:
5-0 ATS in its last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a ATS win.
10-1 ATS in its last 11 vs. Big Ten.
24-8 ATS in its last 32 games vs. teams with a winning straight up record.
22-8 ATS in its last 30 neutral site games.
53-21-1 ATS in its last 75 non-conference games.
5-2 ATS in its 7 games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game.
25-10 ATS in its last 35 games overall.
38-18 ATS in its last 56 games vs. teams with a winning % above .600.