Swept last night, going 3-0. Now 14-6 on posted plays in this tourney. Hope to keep it rolling last couple days.
Loyola +1.5, but I think they win this outright. Biggest handicap is looking at how Kentucky plays vs this loyola team. I was on KY, and a clear loser early on. It was also clear that Ky's focus is and was to attack the paint. They are not known for being a perimeter team and it showed. You aren't going to have success making a living in the paint against a team like KSU. They are tough and disciplined.
Loyola is the opposite. They are a great three point shooting team (40% and 19th in the country.
They don't turn the ball over often and they handle ball movement very well, the opposite of how Ky played.
I look at KSU similar to Tennessee. Not a lot of 4-5 star kids, tough minded, good defense, etc. Loyola went up close to double digits down the stretch before taking a last second shot to win. No reason to think KSU poses any advantages that Tenn did not have.
Loyola has a defense similar to KSU in how they play. KSU got off to an early start against Ky raining 3's, even though they aren't a really good 3 point shooting team (34% and 202 in the country.) They also couldn't utilize Krutwig against Nevada because of Nevada's up and down game. Krutwig should see some meaningful and effective minutes down low to neutralize KSU down low.
Couple other thoughts: Wade is not healthy and he isn't going to get any better after playing 2 days ago. He again may give an emotional spark, but I think that emotion was used up against Ky. I don't look for him to have any sort of breakout game which helps Krutwig down low.
Also remember that Custer missed 5 games during the season. Other than those 5, the Ramblers are 29-2 with him.
Lastly, Ky was a bunch of freshman that had an up and down season. They played well of late, but ran into a team that defended what they wanted to do perfectly and they didn't respond. Loyola is a team of upperclassmen, similar to K-State who play much differently than Ky and it will show tonight.
I also lean to the over here. This one just seems too low for teams that can get into the 60's with scoring. If we think it is a close game, look for some late shots and free throws.
Michigan -4.5 - In the same sentence I am kicking myself for not putting futures bet on Mich to win big 10 tourney as well as this tournament. While I picked them to lose against Houston, they survived on a buzzer beater. That must've been the wake up call needed along with the over valuing of A&m because they got it rolling again. The offense looked good, like it did prior to the Montana game. Plain and simple, this team is good enough to win this tourney and I am not moving off the thought that FSU is on borrowed time. Still think they get blown out if Macura doesn't get two terrible calls against him (even his 5th foul was really a block against FSU) and learning that Tilley was out for Gonzaga didn't help their chances, or my bet. This is the game I see FSU succumbing to a better overall team, better defensive team and a team playing better offensively than FSU.
I am also betting the under 143. Many games of Michigan totals are in the 130's, but after their offensive showing, the line is up to 143. I think they go back to a slow paced, grind out game. Just as much as that, I think this D smothers this FSU team and holds them lower than they have been.
As always, BOL to everyone through the rest of the weekend!