I'm not going to overthink this one. Colorado is averaging 142 per game this year and even less when favored. Since the start of last year, they are averaging around 142 at home. After a couple of disappointing losses, I expect strong effort defensively.
South Dakota St can run up the score, but they are usually doing so when they are heavily favored, or when they are a heavy underdog. When the line is less than 10 this year, they are an under team.
http://killersports.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=team%3DSDS+and+season%3E2015+and+line%3C5&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
Also, I expect Colorado to bounce back and win this one covering the 5 and two straight ats losses after starting the year strong.