*** 14 Bracket Picking Rules from Vegas!
(records since modern era began in 1985 unless otherwise noted)
ROUND OF 64 picks:
TIP: Pick ZERO #1 or #2 seeds to lose.
#16 seeds are 0 for 128
#15 seeds are 8 for 128
TIP: Pick at least ONE #13 or #14 seed to win.
At least one Top 4 seed has lost in the first round 28 of 32 years
#13 and #14 seeds combined win 18% of first round games
TIP: Don't be shy picking upsets with #12 through #9 seeds.
#12 seeds have won at least one game 25 of 28 years
#9 seeds have won EXACTLY half their games vs. #8 seeds
ROUND OF 32 picks:
TIP: Advance #1 seeds into Sweet 16 in almost all cases.
88% of #1 seeds advance to the Sweet 16
TIP: Keep advancing any #12 seeds you picked to win in Round One.
#12 seeds have won 20 of 46 times in Round Two
A double digit seed has made the Sweet Sixteen 30 of 32 years
TIP: Pick at least ONE upset of a #2 or #3 seed.
Only ONCE in 32 years has all the top three seeds (#1, #2, #3) made the Sweet Sixteen
TIP: Do NOT pick any seed worse than #12 to win in the Round of 32.
Only 9 of 512 teams (only 1.7%) advancing to Sweet 16 were seeded worse than #12 (none last year)
SWEET 16 round picks:
TIP: Advance exactly THREE #1 seeds into the Elite 8.
71% of #1 seeds make the Elite 8
(that's a higher percentage than #5 seeds that win a single game!)
TIP: Advance no team worse than a #11 seed into the Elite 8
26 seeds worse than #11 have made it the Sweet 16
but only ONE Elite 8 team (out of a total of 256) has been seeded worse than #11
ELITE 8 round picks:
TIP: Advance exactly ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four.
The Final Four has included exactly one or two #1 seeds 25 of 32 years
TIP: Advance no team worse than a #9 seed to the Final Four.
Only 4 of 152 Final Four teams (since 1979) have been seeded worse than #9
FINAL FOUR round picks:
TIP: Advance NO team worse than a #6 seed to the Championship game.
Only TWO Championship games have had any team worse than a #6 seed (in last 31 years)
TIP: Do NOT advance TWO #1 seeds to Championship game
Since tournament seeding began in 1979
#1 seeds have played each other in the finals only 7 times
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME pick:
TIP: Pick a #4 seed or better to win it all.
27 of last 28 years the NCAA Champion has been a #4 seed or better!