We took a break over the weekend as we were traveling with family. We ended last week as hot as we could as over the last two days we hit all of our 3* and 2* plays which resulted in us being up 50 units in less than 3 weeks. After tweaking our system we have won money on 3 out of 3 nights. We have a good sized card with a lot of big plays so hoping to start this week like we finished the last!!
In this matchup we have the Stratsburg and the Nats traveling cross country to play MLB top team in the Giants. Vegas is definitely giving the Giants some respect in this matchup as we can't remember the last time Stratsburg was just a small favorite. Stratsburg is looking to continue the hot streak as he has one two straight. Our system still tells us that Stratsburg is undervalued. Stratsburg is going up against the Giants who are an above average hitting team but are just average when it comes to hitting change ups and curve balls which Stratsburg throws quite a few 23% and 17%, respectively. Stratsburg really should succeed against the Giants as long as he doesn't become too dependent on his fastball. The Giants send Vogelsong to the mound and when he takes the mound the Giants have been almost an automatic win as they have won 7 of his last 8 starts. However, we think there could be quite a bit regression from Vogelson as he has been one of the most lucky pitchers in baseball. Vogelsong has a four pitch arsenal with every pitch having quite a bit of success. The Nationals are a top 12 fastball hitting team and should truly be able to batter Vogelsong especially if he throws more fastballs and stays away from his excellent curveball which could give the Nats fits.
House takes the mound against Texas on Monday night and our system believes he could be in for a good night against Martinez and the Rangers. House has been a good pitcher this year our system still believes there is quite a bit of value to back House. House is very dependent on his slider and change up which he throws a quarter of the time and should find great success against one of the worst slider hitting teams in baseball. Martinez on the other hand has been very overvalued and is due for the bruising against the surprisingly strong hitting Indians. Martinez throws 3 pitches and per our system none of them are anything to write home about. He is a fastball pitcher and might find some success against a bottom fastball hitting team but also throws a slider and change up close to 20% of the time which could be an issue against the Indians who succeed against those two pitches. Depending on where the number goes we might want to bet the run line with the Indians as well as our system shows they run away with this game.
Haren taking the mound against the Reds in Cincy on Monday. Haren takes the mound and he is very dependent on the cutter and fastball pitches which should lead to great success against the Reds who are poor against both of those dominate pitches by Haren. Even though Cingrani owns a 2-6 record we still feel that is overvalued and is in for a tough night against the Dodgers. Cingrani's go to pitch is his fastball which could potentially give the Dodgers fits but he also throws quite a few sliders and change ups which are going to get destroyed by the great slider hitting Dodgers. This looks like a classic short road favorite that could win by a couple runs as Haren should keep the Reds under 3 runs and Cingrani should allow 4 or 5 runs.
Nuno who has been torched to the tune of an ERA sitting at 5.33. Nuno is undervalued by our system and per our system should be able to turn the tide and lead the Yankees to a victory. Nuno has a 4 pitch arsenal fastball (42%), slider (31%), curveball (16%) and change up (11%). The Royals should find very few bats as they are one of the worst fastball hitting teams in baseball and poor against every one of Nuno's pitches. Nuno's best pitch is his change up and when it is used has been very dominate. Vargas on the other hand owns a record of 5-2 with an ERA of 3.28. Vargas is very overvalued per our system and could have some trouble against the Yankees. Vargas owns probably one of the best change ups in baseball which he throws about 31% of the time. If he becomes too dependent on this pitch he could run into some trouble as the Yankees are an above average change up hitting team.
Another small favorite with the Athletics in Anaheim on Monday night. Chavez takes the mound as an undervalued pitcher. Chavez throws the cutter on close to 40% of his pitches and should be able to find some success against the average hitting Angels. The Angels are the second best fastball hitting team so it is very promising that Chavez is not dependent on the fastball like other pitchers. Richards is coming off an excellent outing against the Astros where he struck out 9 batters through 8 innings. The Athletics are a completely different team than the Astros. Richards is a fastball pitcher throwing a fastball on close to 70% of the time and the remaining is a great slider which he throws on 24% of the time. The problem is that the Athletics are top 3 against fastballs and above average against sliders. The Athletics should be able to get to Richards early and give him fits. Chavez should find success and turn it over to one of the more underrated bullpens in baseball.
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!