Taking the over in the Houston/Pirates game for many reasons. Here’s a few of my thoughts on the play.
Let’s look at the pitching line up.
LOB% xFIP
Rodriguez : 70.1 4.27
Lyles: 60.7 4.21
Over is 6-1 in Wegners last 7 games behind home plate.
Over is 8-2-2 in Pirates last 12 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Over is 6-1-1 in Pirates last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Lyles' last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-0 in Lyles' last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
Over is 3-0-1 in Lyles' last 4 starts as a road underdog of +151 to +200.
Over is 4-0-1 in Lyles' last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
Over is 5-1-2 in Lyles' last 8 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Over is 9-2-2 in Lyles' last 13 starts during game 2 of a series.
Over is 8-2-1 in Lyles' last 11 starts on grass.
Over is 8-2-1 in Lyles' last 11 starts as an underdog.
Over is 4-1-1 in Lyles' last 6 starts as an underdog of +151 to +200.
Over is 8-2-2 in Lyles' last 12 road starts.
Over is 8-2-1 in Lyles' last 11 starts overall.
Over is 8-2-2 in Lyles' last 12 starts as a road underdog.
Over is 20-7 in PIT last 27 Tue. games.
With both teams having RP out, preceding the SPs, bullpens may be shaky.
Betting % on the total has trickled down to 55% on the under. I play more unders in bases than overs, but I always look to take the over when there is more public leaning under. The way I perceive that is lost confidence in the Pirates offensive abilities. It has also dropped from 8 to 7.5. With that being said I will be taking over 7.5 (-105).