4-2 overall yesterday and 2-0 in my top plays. I have a solid run of 16-5 in my last 21 top play and a run of 21-11 in all plays rated 2 units or higher. Let's keep it going today.
4 UNIT PLAY
Boston/ Atlanta Over 10.5: Thanks to an injury to Brandon Beachy, Jair Jurrgens has been recalled and he should allow the Sox to put up some big numbers here. Jair was sent down to the minors after 4 starts that saw him go 0-2 with a 9.37 ERA, but he also struggled down in the minors as well, going 3-4 with a 5.18 ERA in his 10 starts down there. Now he comes back to the major league level to face a Boston offense that is rolling. Not good for Jair, but good for us. Boston has scored 35 runs in their last 4 games, while they have hit .306 and have scored 7 rpg in their last 7 games overall. At home Boston has hit .271 and put up 5.4 rpg. Boston's pitching has suffered some at home as they have gotten a 5.18 ERA from their starters at home this year and Jon Lester has been a big contributor to that as he has a 5.98 ERA in his 7 home starts. As a team, Boston has allowed 5.06 rpg at home, but 6.86 rpg in Lester's home starts and those home starts have averaged 11.4 rpg. The Braves offense had been in a terrible slump but then on Wednesday they pounded out 5 HR's and put 10 runs on the board. This is still a team that has put up 4.6 rpg on the road and they should be able to get to Lester for a bunch in this one. Even if the Braves get just 4 runs in this one, their is no way the Sox don't get at least 7 combined vs Jair and a bullpen that has a 5.35 ERA in it's last 10 games. the Humidity might not be there for this one, but it sghould still be a fun game with at least 13 runs put up.
3 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY
ARIZONA -143 over Chicago (NL): Not a good spot for the Cubs as they have been terrible on the road when facing a left hander.They are now 5-22 in their last 27 road games vs a lefty starter, including 1-9 this year. They have hit lefties at a .198 clip and have scored just 2.19 rp/9 off of them on the road. They do get to face a lefty, who has struggled some at home this year. Joe Saunders is just 3-4 with a high 5.01 ERA at home on the year, but he has pitched very well in his last 2 home starts, going 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA. Overall he has a nice 2.89 ERA in his last 3 starts and should hold down the Cubs in this one. Offensively the D-Backs have exploded as they are off a home series with the Mariners and put 30 runs on the board in the 3 game set. For the year the D-Backs have hit .276 and scored 5.09 rpg at home. Jeff Samardzija has been okay for the Cubs, with a 5-5 mark and a 4.04 ERA, including 2-3 with a 6.00 ERA on the road. His road ERA is inflated a bit due rto his last road start in which he allowed 8 ER's in 3.2 innings at Minnesota. For the most part he has pitched well on the rpoad, but still the Cubs can't hit lefties on the road, Saunders is starting pitch well at home and Chicago is also off a tough series with their cross town rival. A lot going against Chicago in this one and that should have the D-Back taking game one of this series and we get a booster shot from the Angle below. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 2008, the D-Backs are 24-4 as a home favorite of 140 or more in the first game of a home series.
BALTIMORE -120 over Washington: The Orioles are off a tough series with the Mets, in which they were swept and shutout in 2 of those games, but they are at home for this one where they have played well this year. The O's are 19-14 at home and have averaged 5.03 rpg at Camden Yards this year. In their last 6 games here they have gone 5-1 and have averaged 7.3 rpg in those games. In their last 3 at home they took on a Pittsburgh staff that has been very good this year, yet the O's tagged Pitt for 27 runs in the 3 games. Tonight they take on another tough staff in the Nats, that has allowed just 3.3 rpg on the year, but in their last 6 they have given up almost a rpg more (4.2). Jordan Zimmerman is 3-5 with a 2.92 ERA, but he comes in struggling with an 0-2 mark and a 3.89 ERA in his last 6 starts. For the O's Jason Hammel has not struggled at all this year. He is 7-2 with a 2.87 ERA overall, while at home he is a perfect 3-0 with a 2.53 ERA. The O's are 10-3 overall in his starts and 4-1 in his home starts and he should be able to hold down a Nats offense that has struggled for most of the year, averaging just 3.9 rpg. Washington has lost 4 of their last 6 games, while Baltimore looks to get back on track after a horrible series in New York. O's take game 1 here.
Oakland/ San Francisco Over 7: Tim Lincecum has struggled all year and i expect that to continue here, especially vs an Oakland offense that has taken off of late. Tim has a 6.19 ERA overall, with his starts averaging 9.4 rpg, while on the road he has an 8.14 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP, with his road starts averaging 12 rpg. The A's offense has been rolling of late as they have averaged 6 rpg in their last 9 games and while they do average just 3.6 rpg at home, they have put up 5.2 rpg in Jarod Parker's home starts on the year. Jarod has been solid at home, with a 1.59 ERA and he has allowed 0 ER's in 3 of his last 4 starts, but he was tagged for 6 ER's in just 2 innings in an earlier matchup vs the Giants and San Fran is a team that hits much better on the road than at home. At home the Giants hit .255 and score 3.3 rpg, but on the road they have hit .269 and put up 4.6 rpg. The Giants should be good for at least 3 in this one, while the A's should put up at least 4 of their own vs a struggling Tim. I really don't see a push here as I expect at least 9 runs in this one, but still a push is better than a loss and at the very least i expect 7 runs to be put up.
2 UNIT PLAYS
CINCINNATI -1.5 (+105) over Minnesota
NY Yanks -135 over NY METS: Google News Play
1 UNIT PLAYS
Cleveland -135 over HOUSTON
Seattle/ San Diego Under 6