For Wjat It's Worth: July 6 Card - Baseball - Forums

Posted: 07/06/2025 10:25 AM

For what it’s worth, yesterday was a tremendous day for me. I picked up a whopping 62.61 units.

One thing that I still know going in is that I won’t be betting against the Rockies today. They’re hosting the White Sox in what could well be the shit series of the 2025 season.

and I want no part of it.

Here is my Sunday card

ML Parlays	Team #1	Team #2	Odds	Units

	BOS 1st 5 ML	BOS ML	103	2
	BOS 1st 5 ML	PHIL 1st 5 ML	-105	2
	BOS 1st 5 ML	PHIL ML	-110	2
	BOS 1st 5 ML	TOR 1st 5 ML	126	2
	BOS 1st 5 ML	TOR ML	123	2
	BOS 1st 5 ML	DET 1st 5 ML	-102	2
	BOS 1st 5 ML	DET ML	106	2
	BOS 1st 5 ML	CHI C 1st 5 ML	107	2
	BOS ML	CHI C ML	116	2
	BOS ML	PHIL 1st 5 ML	101	2
	BOS ML	PHIL ML	-104	2
	BOS ML	TOR 1st 5 ML	131	2
	BOS ML	TOR ML	129	2
	BOS ML	DET 1st 5 ML	102	2
	BOS ML	DET ML	111	2
	BOS ML	CHI C 1st 5 ML	122	2
	BOS ML	CHI C ML	113	2
	PHIL 1st 5 ML	PHIL ML	-112	2
	PHIL 1st 5 ML	TOR 1st 5 ML	123	2
	PHIL 1st 5 ML	TOR ML	121	2
	PHIL 1st 5 ML	DET 1st 5 ML	195	2
	PHIL 1st 5 ML	DET ML	103	2
	PHIL 1st 5 ML	CHI C 1st 5 ML	105	2
	PHIL 1st 5 ML	CHI C ML	114	2
	PHIL ML	TOR 1st 5 ML	118	2
	PHIL ML	TOR ML	116	2
	PHIL ML	DET 1st 5 ML	-110	2
	PHIL ML	DET ML	-101	2
	PHIL ML	CHI C 1st 5 ML	100	2
	PHIL ML	CHI C ML	109	2
	TOR ML	TOR ML	155	2
	DET 1st 5 ML	DET 1st 5 ML	126	2
	DET ML	DET ML	135	2
	CHI C 1st 5 ML	CHI C 1st 5 ML	137	2
	CHI C ML	CHI C ML	147	2
	TOR ML	DET 1st 5 ML	123	2
	TOR ML	DET ML	132	2
	TOR ML	CHI C 1st 5 ML	134	2
	TOR ML	CHI C ML	144	2
	DET 1st 5 ML	DET ML	106	2
	DET 1st 5 ML	CHI C 1st 5 ML	107	2
	DET 1st 5 ML	CHI C ML	116	2
	DET ML	CHI C 1st 5 ML	116	2
	DET ML	CHI C ML	125	2
	CHI C 1st 5 ML	CHI C ML	127	2

Here are my thoughts on these games. I’ll post the evening game in a bit.

BOS @ WASH

Ceddanne Rafaela homered and Romy Gonzalez had three hits, while Walker Buehler earned his first road win since April 26, as the 45-45 Red Sox routed the 37-52 Nats 10-3 yesterday. Buehler gave up 3 runs (2 earned) over 5-plus innings. The Red Sox have now won 5 of their last 7.

Starting Pitchers

1:35

GS +

GS -

WHIP

ERA

xERA

FIP

xFIP

SIERA

wOBA

xwOBA

BB%

BOS

Crochet- L

(14/18)

(4/18)

1.07

2.34

2.98

2.55

2.70

2.87

0.260

0.281

31.5%

7.0%

WASH

Ogasawara - L

Edge – BOS

Bullpens

Team	W	L	SV%	Rk	R/IP	Rk	WHIP	Rk	ERA	Rk	AVG	Rk	LOB%	Rk	K%	Rk	GB%	Rk	BB%	Rk
BOS	19	21	56.1%	25	0.50	18	1.28	13	3.61	7	0.226	8	67.8%	27	22.2%	16	44.0%	13	10.0%	22
WASH	15	12	59.4%	20	0.69	29	1.54	29	5.83	30	0.266	29	65.6%	29	19.5%	29	45.3%	8	10.7%	28

Edge – BOS

Offenses

Team	RPG	RK	wOBA	Rk	wRC+	Rk	ISO	Rk	AVG	Rk	Hard%	Rk	BB%	Rk	BsR	Rk	K%	Rk
BOS	4.91	6	0.325	6	104	10	0.171	7	0.251	12	34.1%	2	8.6%	15	1.3	12	23.9%	28
WASH	4.42	15	0.309	19	97	17	0.146	17	0.245	17	31.2%	17	7.8%	24	-5.8	30	20.3%	5

Edge – BOS

Conclusion: The Red Sox are better than the Nats. They hit better, averaging about a half a run more per game than the Nat with a 16-point better wOBA and a 7-point better wRC+s. The Red Sox don’t have a great bullpen, but it is statistically better than the Nats wretched penm almost across the board. That bring us o the startng pitching matchuo and that looks like a massive mismatch. Garrett Crochet has firmly established himself as the ace of this Red Sox starting rotation and he’s doing a hell of a good job. He has delivered 14 above average starts and just 4 below average ones in his 18 outings. His stat profile, featuring a 1.07 WHIP and 2.34 ERA, as well as a stellar 144/32 K/BB ratio, is outstanding with ERA metrics that are all under 2.00, a wOBA and xwOBA that are both significantly lower than league average and an elite 31.5% K rate. Crochet beat the Reds 13-16 on Monday, despite giving 5 runs (4 earned on 7 hits and 1 walk over 6 innings while striking out 9. From a run prevention standpoint, Crochet had one of his worst outings of the season, tying a season high with 5 runs allowed, but the Red Sox gave him a 7-0 lead before he threw his first pitch, so it didn’t matter. Even if the Reds did score some runs, Crochet still racked up the Ks. He now has delivered starts in a row with seven or more Ks and he leads all of MLB with 144 on the season.

Shinosuka Ogasawara (oblique) threw 4 innings in his most recent rehab start at High-A and will make his MLB debut today against the Red Sox. Ogasawara, a 27-year-old lefty from Japan, signed a two-year, $3.5 million deal with the Nats this season and has a 1.33 WHIP, a 4.80 ERA, and a 12/4 K/BB iratio over 15 innings across three starts at AAA.

The Red Sox have all the edges, but the big one is the starting pitching mismatch and what makes it an even bigger mismatch is that Crochet is coming of a relatively oor start for him. I love betting on good pitchers coming off bad outings.

Pick – BOS 1^st 5 and full game MLs.

CIN @ PHIL

Alec Bohm and Kyle Schwarber each hit two-run HRs and Edmundo Sosa added a solo shot to lift the 52-37 Phils to a 5-1 win over the 46-43 Reds yesterday. Phils starter Ranger Suárez was pulled throwing just 80 pitches over 5 innings and struck out 6. Suárez, who gave up 7 earned runs in his first start of the season, and has only given up 11 over his last 11 starts!

Starting Pitchers

1:35

GS +

GS -

WHIP

ERA

xERA

FIP

xFIP

SIERA

wOBA

xwOBA

BB%

CIN

Burns - R

(0/2)

(1/2)

PHIL

Wheeler - R

(14/17)

(3/17)

0.91

2.27

2.35

2.55

2.63

2.68

0.246

0.251

32.9%

6.1%

Edge – Phil, big

Bullpens

Team	W	L	SV%	Rk	R/IP	Rk	WHIP	Rk	ERA	Rk	AVG	Rk	LOB%	Rk	K%	Rk	GB%	Rk	BB%	Rk
PHIL	16	12	63.4%	15	0.54	24	1.38	22	4.42	24	0.252	23	71.4%	16	21.9%	18	37.7%	28	9.0%	11
CIN	16	14	66.7%	12	0.52	21	1.27	12	4.11	19	0.220	6	70.4%	21	20.9%	21	40.3%	22	10.1%	23

Edge – CIN

Offenses

Team	RPG	RK	wOBA	Rk	wRC+	Rk	ISO	Rk	AVG	Rk	Hard%	Rk	BB%	Rk	BsR	Rk	K%	Rk
PHIL	4.61	19	0.323	7	104	10	0.148	16	0.256	7	32.5%	11	9.1%	8	4.2	6	20.7%	8
CIN	4.65	9	0.316	14	96	19	0.153	13	0.247	15	28.8%	26	8.9%	10	2.5	9	23.1%	24

Edge – PHIL

Conclusion: While the Red actually average 0.04 more runs per game than the Phils, ut’s the Phils who have the a 7-point better wOBA and 8-point better wRC+. However, the Phils bullpens continues to be somewhat problematic and the Reds pen has he better stats. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and the Phils should have a huge edge there.

Chase Burns will continue to be part of the Reds rotation for the foreseeable future He was impressive in his MLB debut against the Yankees, becoming the first starting pitcher in the expansion era to strike out the first 5 batters that he faced in a debut outing, and he added 3 more over his 5 innings while giving up 3 earned runs on 6 hit. However, Burns was beaten in his second start, giving up 7 runs (5 earned) on 5 hits and 2 walks in just 0.1 innings in Monday's 13-6 loss to the Red Sox. Burns had a tough go of things during his second career start. the rookie right-hander got tagged for 7 runs in the 1^st, and he lasted just 33 pitches.

Zack Wheeler has now started 17 games for the Phils with 14 grading as above average and just 3 grading as below. His stat profile, highlighted by a stellar 0.91 WHIP and 2.27 ERA, as well as an ultra-impressive 166/25 K/BB ratio over 107 innings. Wheeler’s ERA metrics are totally consistent with that ERA with a wOBA and xwOBA that are both over 60-points lower than the league average with an elite K rate.

Wheeler beat the Padres on Monday, giving up 6 hits and no walks over 9 scoreless innings and striking out 10. The veteran right-hander notched his 3^rd double-digit K performance of the season. up to make his first July start against the Reds at home this weekend.

This is mostly about the starting pitching and Zack Wheeler.

Pick – PHIL 1^st 5 and full games MLs

LAA @ TOR

Addison Barger hit a walk-off single in the 11^th, George Springer added a two-run HR, his 5^th in 5 games, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had 3 hits as the 51-38 Blue Jays extended their season-best winning streak to s7 games by beating the 43-45 Angels 4-3 yesterday.

Starting Pitchers

1:37	SP	GS +	GS -	WHIP	ERA	xERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%
LAA	Anderson L	(9/17_	(8/17)	1.34	4.12	4.39	4.78	4.86	4.68	0.327	0.337	19.3%	6.8%
TOR	Gausman - R	(10/17_	(7/17)	1.11	4.18	3.89	3.76	4.03	3.94	0.289	0.317	23.2%	7.2%

Edge – TOR

Bullpens

Team	W	L	SV%	Rk	R/IP	Rk	WHIP	Rk	ERA	Rk	AVG	Rk	LOB%	Rk	K%	Rk	GB%	Rk	BB%	Rk
LAA	24	15	52.5%	27	0.64	28	1.53	28	5.23	28	0.265	28	69.7%	23	22.0%	17	38.8%	26	11.0%	29
TOR	26	13	62.8%	15	0.47	10	1.20	3	3.71	11	0.214	2	72.7%	11	26.0%	2	39.4%	25	9.8%	20

Edge – TOR

Offenses

Team	RPG	RK	wOBA	Rk	wRC+	Rk	ISO	Rk	AVG	Rk	Hard%	Rk	BB%	Rk	BsR	Rk	K%	Rk
LAA	4.28	17	0.307	22	96	10	0.179	5	0.228	28	32.9%	7	7.5%	28	-1.5	17	26.4%	29
TOR	4.60	12	0.321	10	106	9	0.143	18	0.258	3	31.8%	14	8.8%	12	-2.2	19	17.6%	1

Edge – TOR

Conclusion: The Blue Jays have been on a major roll lately. They swept the then 1^st place Yankees in a four game series earlier in the week and then beat the Angels in the first two game of this series and now lead the Yankees by 3 games in the AL East. The Jays have all the edges in this one. First, they are the better hitting team averaging about a third of a run more than the Angels with a 14-point better wOBA and 10-point better wRC+. Second the Jays also have the better bullpen with a statistical edge in just about every statistical category that I look at. The Brings us to the starting pitchers. Tyler Anderson has now started 17 games with barely more above average starts (9) than below (8) His stat profile headed by a mediocre 1.34 WHIP and 34.12 ERA leaveas a lot to be desired with an above average wOBA and xWOBA as well as a modest 77/35 K/BB ratio over 91.2 innings

Kevin Gausman has start17 games for the Jays with 9 gradingas above average and 8 grading as below. His stat profile in only mediocre, but still mostly better than Anderson’s. Gausman didn't factor into the decision in Tuesday's 12-5 win over the Yankees, giving up 2 runs on 6 hits and 4 walks over 5 innings and striking out 3. The veteran righty gave up 2 runs in the 1^st but escaped any further damage despite constant traffic on the basepaths. Gausman was pulled with the Jays ahead 4-2, but the bullpen let the lead slip away in the 7^th before the offense erupted late. It was the 5^th time in his last 6 starts that Gausman's issued multiple walks.

The Jays are the better team in every repsect and they’re hot.

Pick – TOR 1^st 5 and full game MLs

DET @ CLEV

Casey Mize threw 7 innings of four-hit ball and Spencer Torkelson homered as the 56-34 Tigers handed the 40-47 Guardians their 9^th straight loss, 1-0 last night.

Starting Pitchers

1:40	SP	GS +	GS -	WHIP	ERA	xERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%
DET	Skubal - L	(14/17)	(3/17)	0.83	2.15	2.45	1.98	2.35	2.36	0.226	0.256	33.4%	3.4%
CLEV	Williams - R	(9/17)	(8/17	1.46	3.86	4.58	4.77	4.40	7.70	0.327	0.343	21.9%	13.1%

Edge – DET, massive

Bullpens

Team	W	L	SV%	Rk	R/IP	Rk	WHIP	Rk	ERA	Rk	AVG	Rk	LOB%	Rk	K%	Rk	GB%	Rk	BB%	Rk
DET	21	11	71.5%	7	0.49	15	1.24	8	3.82	16	0.238	16	70.5%	19	19.9%	27	47.6%	3	7.9%	1
CLEV	18	11	74.2%	3	0.48	12	1.41	25	3.97	17	0.258	26	73.1%	9	23.2%	11	36.7%	29	9.3%	13

Edge DET

Offenses

Team	RPG	RK	wOBA	Rk	wRC+	Rk	ISO	Rk	AVG	Rk	Hard%	Rk	BB%	Rk	BsR	Rk	K%	Rk
DET	5.03	5	0.330	5	113	5	0.173	6	0.257	4	31.1%	18	8.4%	19	5.6	4	22.8%	22
CLEV	3.60	26	0.292	27	87	25	0.140	22	0.225	29	28.2%	28	8.5%	17	1.5	11	22.6%	19

Edge – DET

Conclusion: The Tigers are the clearly better team here and hold all the edges. First, they are the much better hitting team, average almost a run and a half more per game than the Guardians with a 38-point better wOBA and 26-point better wRC+. S;thpugh it’s a closer matchup, the Tigers also have the better bullpen with a beter WHIP, ERA and BA against than the Guardians. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and I.m not spending any time on that. Tarik Skubal may well be the best pitcher on the planet.

The Tigers have all the other edges in this one and they have Skubal.

Pick – DET 1^st 5 and full game MLs.

STL @ CHI C

Starting Pitchers

1:40	SP	GS +	GS -	WHIP	ERA	xERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%
STL	Fedde - R	(9/17)	&/17)	1.42	4.56	5.42	4.66	5.18	5.35	0.327	0.369	14.2%	10.3%
CHI C	Boyd - L	(14/17)	(3/17)	1.08	2.65	3.38	3.47	4.00	.3.87	0.286	0.299	22.1%	5.6%

Ege – CHI C

Bullpens

Team	W	L	SV%	Rk	R/IP	Rk	WHIP	Rk	ERA	Rk	AVG	Rk	LOB%	Rk	K%	Rk	GB%	Rk	BB%	Rk
STL	20	14	63.6%	14	0.47	10	1.28	13	3.74	12	0.237	15	70.4%	21	20.6%	23	47.7%	2	8.8%	9
CHI C	18	13	70.0%	8	0.40	3	1.23	7	3.21	2	0.230	11	74.9%	4	19.7%	28	43.4%	14	9.1%	12

Edge – CHI C

Offenses

Team	RPG	RK	wOBA	Rk	wRC+	Rk	ISO	Rk	AVG	Rk	Hard%	Rk	BB%	Rk	BsR	Rk	K%	Rk
STL	4.60	11	0.316	14	102	13	0.141	21	0.253	11	29.5%	24	8.3%	20	-4.2	26	20.4%	7
CHI C	5.41	2	0.336	4	116	3	0.189	4	0.257	4	30.5%	23	9.0%	9	7.6	2	20.1%	4

Edge 0 CHI

Conclusion: No time for details. I’m running late. The Cubs hab all the edges

Pick – CHI C 1^st 5 and full game MLs