For What It's Worth July 5 Two Late Nih=ght games - Baseball - Forums

Posted: 07/05/2025 5:59 PM

SF @ SAC

JP Sears tossed 6 scoreless innings, Nick Kurtz and Denzel Clarke each hit HRs, and Jacob Wilson and Brent Rooker both drove in 2 of the 6 early runs scored off Justin Verlander as the 37-53 A’s took a 6-0 early lead and cruised past the 47-42 Giants 11-2 last night.

Starting Pitchers

10:05	SP	GS +	(2/8)	WHIP	ERA	xERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%
SF	Webb - R	(14/18)	(4/18)	1.14	2.61	3.05	2.32	2.42	2.82	0.282	0.285	27.5%	5.2%
SAC	Severino -R	(9/18)	(8/28)	1.38	5.09	4.63	4.31	4.73	4.80	0.325	0.345	15.4%	7.4%

Edge – SF

Bullpens

N/A - this is a 1^st 5 bet only

Offenses

Team	RPG	RK	wOBA	Rk	wRC+	Rk	ISO	Rk	AVG	Rk	Hard%	Rk	BB%	Rk	BsR	Rk	K%	Rk
SF	4.12	21	0.303	24	94	24	0.142	20	0.230	25	28.3%	27	9.6%	2	-2.7	23	22.6%	19
SAC	4.22	19	0.318	12	100	14	0.161	9	0.248	13	30.7%	21	8.5%	17	1.0	13	22.3%	16

Edge – SAC

Conclusion: This was my toughest decision. I don’t like or trust either team to win, even when they should. The A’s are the better hitting team here, averaging 0.10 more runs per game that the Giants, with a 13-point better wOBA and 6-point better wRC+. That’s not a big difference. However, on paper the starting pitching matchup looks like a mismatch.

Logan Webb has now started 18 games for the Giants with 14 grading as abive average and just 4 grading as below. His stat profile is excellent, highlighted by a 1.14 WHIP and 2.61 ERA. Webb’s ERA metrics are just as outstanding with a below league average wOBA and xwOBA, as well as a superb 127/24 K/BB ratio over 113.2 innings. Webb gave up 3 runs on 7 hits and a walk while striking out 7 over 6.1 innings, but lost to the Diamondbacks in his last start. It was Webb’s 7^th quality start in a row, but he again didn't get enough run support to avoid his first loss since May 27. The right-hander made six starts in June, giving up just 10 runs with a 43/7 K/BB ratio in 40.1 innings.

Luis Severino has also started 18 games for the A’s, but unlike Webb, he barely has more above average starts (9) as below average ones (8). Hi stat profile featuring a mediocre 1.38 WHIP and very high 5.09 ERA is much less impressive than Webb’s with mediocre ERA metrics and a modest 72/34 K/BB ratio over 104.2 innings.

Severino took the loss Sunday against the Yankees, giving up 7 runs (6 earned) on 5 hits and 3 walks over 3.2 innings. It was another rough outing for Severino, who's now lost 5 of his last 6 starts while struggling to the tune of a a 7.99 ERA over that span of 32.2 innings.

I don’t trust the Giants to win, but for five innings, I’ll ride Webb.

Pick – SF 1^st 5 ML

PITT @ SEA

Cal Raleigh hit his 34^th and 35^th HRs to set a career high and match Ken Griffey Jr.'s Mariners record for HRs before the AS break, and Brian Woo scattered 3 hits and 2 walks over 6 scoreless innings, while striking out 8 as the 46-42 Mariners beat the 38-51 Pirates 6-0 yesterday.

Starting Pitchers

10:10	SP	GS +	GS -	WHIP	ERA	xERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%
PITT	Burrows - R	(3/7)	(4/7)	1.30	4.15	4.33	4.73	3.76	3.73	0.337	0.336	23.6%	6.8%
SEA	Castillo - R	(11/17)	(6/17_	1.29	3.55	4.72	4.13	4.36	4.37	0.314	0.348	19.4%	7.9%

Edge – SEA

Bullpens

Team	W	L	SV%	Rk	R/IP	Rk	WHIP	Rk	ERA	Rk	AVG	Rk	LOB%	Rk	K%	Rk	GB%	Rk	BB%	Rk
PITT	19	16	56.3%	24	0.44	5	1.21	5	3.64	9	0.219	5	71.9%	15	20.8%	22	44.3%	12	9.4%	16
SEA	22	15	5583%	22	0.49	15	1.31	17	3.61	7	0.238	16	73.1%	9	21.2%	19	44.6%	11	9.3%	13

Edge – PITT, but very slight

Offenses

Team	RPG	RK	wOBA	Rk	wRC+	Rk	ISO	Rk	AVG	Rk	Hard%	Rk	BB%	Rk	BsR	Rk	K%	Rk
PITT	3.38	28	0.291	28	82	27	0.113	30	0.234	24	30.8%	19	8.7%	14	-4.2	26	23.4%	25
SEA	4.55	13	0.320	11	112	6	0.156	11	0.248	13	32.9%	7	8.9%	10	-4.4	28	22.5%	18

Edge – SEA

Conclusion: The Pirates were suddenly playing well. They came into yesterday’s game having just swept the visiting Cards and the visiting Mets in back-to-back three-game series, but that was in Pittsburgh, when they are 26-21 this season. Now, they are on the road where they’re only 12-30. The Mariners have struggled some lately, splitting four games with the Royals in Seattle, after dropping two of three to the Rangers in Texas, but they righted that ship yesterday. The Mariners are the better hitting team here, averaging more than a full run more than the Pirates with a 29-point better wOBA and 30-point better wRC+. These two bullpens, on the other hand, look pretty evenly matched. I don’t think much of either one and I can’t give an edge to one over the other. That brings us to the two starting pitchers, and it sure looks like the Mariners have an edge there with Luis Castillo facing Mike Burrows. Burrows has now started 7 games with more of them grading as below average(4) than above (3). His stat profile is mediocre with a 1.38 WHIP and 4.15 ERA, mediocre ERA metrics and a less than impressive 35/10 K/BB ratio over 34 innings.

Burrows did not factor in the decision in Sunday's win against the Mets, giving up 1 run on 4 hits and a walk while striking out 5 over 4.1 innings. Burrows got the start Sunday on short rest after making a multi-inning relief appearance against the Brewers on Wednesday. While he did not qualify for the win, he was better p, with the lone blemish on his outing being a solo HR in the 5^th.

Luis Castillo has started 17 games for the Mariner this season, with 11 grading as above average and 6 grading as below. His stat profile is solid with a fine 1.29 WHIP and 3.58 ERA, but his ERA metrics are only mediocre along with a 79/32 K/B ratio over 96.1 innings. Castillo also didn't factor into the decision Sunday against the Rangers, despite giving up one run on 7 hits and 2 walks with 4 Ks over 6 innings.

Castillo pulled himself out of a rough patch Sunday, notching aring a quality start and not giving up a HR. The 32-year-old had given up 16 runs (14 earned) in 22 innings over his previous four starts, including 8 HRs during that stretch after having yielded merely 4 in his first 12 starts. time out.

The Mariners are the better team and Castillo is the better starting pitcher.

Pick – SEA 1^st 5 and full game MLS