For what it’s worth, yesterday was a mixed bag. I bet on just 2 teams and parlayed 4 sides, winning 2 and losing 2. I lost 7.15 units. I guess all the variance that we’ve seen this season hasn’t settled down yet.
My losers were the Braves 1st 5 and full game MLs, and the winner were the Mariners 1st 5 and full game MLs.ML.
Fortunately, Cubs and Dodgers both won their games, saving me from complete humiliation. How the Braves didn’t get to Charlue Morton, I just don’t understand. Hell, everybody else has.
One thing that I know going in is that I won’t be betting against the Rockies today. They’re hosting the White Sox in what could well be the shit series of the 2025 season.
and I want no part of it.
Here is my Saturday card. It’s a big one.
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team #2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TOR 1st 5 ML
|
TOR ML
|
153
|
2
|
|
TOR 1st 5 ML
|
MIL 1st 5 ML
|
179
|
2
|
|
TOR 1st 5 ML
|
MIL ML
|
176
|
2
|
|
TOR 1st 5 ML
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
160
|
2
|
|
TOR 1st 5 ML
|
ARIZ ML
|
179
|
2
|
|
TOR 1st 5 ML
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
175
|
2
|
|
TOR 1st 5 ML
|
DET ML
|
173
|
2
|
|
TOR 1st 5 ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
145
|
2
|
|
TOR 1st 5 ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
157
|
2
|
|
TOR 1st 5 ML
|
SEA ML
|
151
|
2
|
|
TOR ML
|
MIL 1st 5 ML
|
174
|
2
|
|
TOR ML
|
MIL ML
|
171
|
2
|
|
TOR ML
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
156
|
2
|
|
TOR ML
|
ARIZ ML
|
174
|
2
|
|
TOR ML
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
170
|
2
|
|
TOR ML
|
DET ML
|
174
|
2
|
|
TOR ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
140
|
2
|
|
TOR ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
153
|
2
|
|
TOR ML
|
SEA ML
|
146
|
2
|
|
MIL 1st 5 ML
|
MIL ML
|
199
|
2
|
|
MIL 1st 5 ML
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
182
|
2
|
|
MIL 1st 5 ML
|
ARIZ ML
|
203
|
2
|
|
MIL 1st 5 ML
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
198
|
2
|
|
MIL 1st 5 ML
|
DET ML
|
203
|
2
|
|
MIL 1st 5 ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
165
|
2
|
|
MIL 1st 5 ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
179
|
2
|
|
MIL 1st 5 ML
|
SEA ML
|
172
|
2
|
|
MIL ML
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
179
|
2
|
|
MIL ML
|
ARIZ ML
|
199
|
2
|
|
MIL ML
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
194
|
2
|
|
MIL ML
|
DET ML
|
199
|
2
|
|
MIL ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
167
|
2
|
|
MIL ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
176
|
2
|
|
MIL ML
|
SEA ML
|
169
|
2
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
ARIZ ML
|
182
|
2
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
178
|
2
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
DET ML
|
182
|
2
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
138
|
2
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
160
|
2
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
SEA ML
|
154
|
2
|
|
ARIZ ML
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
198
|
2
|
|
ARIZ ML
|
DET ML
|
203
|
2
|
|
ARIZ ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
170
|
2
|
|
ARIZ ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
179
|
2
|
|
ARIZ ML
|
SEA ML
|
172
|
2
|
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
DET ML
|
198
|
2
|
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
161
|
2
|
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
176
|
2
|
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
SEA ML
|
168
|
2
|
|
DET ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
165
|
2
|
|
DET ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
179
|
2
|
|
DET ML
|
SEA ML
|
172
|
2
|
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
145
|
2
|
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
SEA ML
|
138
|
2
|
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
SEA ML
|
151
|
2
|
Here are my thoughts on the afternoon games. I’ll post the evening game in a bit.
LAA @ TOR
Myles Straw scored the winning run on a throwing error by pitcher Sam Bachman in the bottom of the 10th, as the 1st place 50-38 Blue Jays extended their winning streak to 6 games by beating the 43-44 Angels 4-3 last night. Straw, the automatic runner, scored from 2nd when Bachman fielded Ernie Clement's sacrifice bunt and overthrew 1st.
Chad Green worked a scoreless 10th to notch the win.
Starting Pitchers
3:07
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
LAA
|
Kochanowicz
|
(5/17)
|
(11/17)
|
1.56
|
5.44
|
4.97
|
5.54
|
4.76
|
4.90
|
0.361
|
0.356
|
16.2%
|
10.6%
|
TOR
|
Scherzer - R
|
(1/3)
|
(2/3)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edge – TOR
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
GB%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
LAA
|
24
|
14
|
52.5%
|
27
|
0.64
|
28
|
1.53
|
28
|
5.23
|
28
|
0.265
|
28
|
69.7%
|
23
|
22.0%
|
17
|
38.8%
|
26
|
11.0%
|
29
|
TOR
|
26
|
13
|
62.8%
|
15
|
0.47
|
10
|
1.20
|
3
|
3.71
|
11
|
0.214
|
2
|
72.7%
|
11
|
26.0%
|
2
|
39.4%
|
25
|
9.8%
|
20
|
Edge – TOR
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
RK
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
Hard%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
LAA
|
4.30
|
17
|
0.307
|
22
|
96
|
10
|
0.179
|
5
|
0.228
|
28
|
32.9%
|
7
|
7.5%
|
28
|
-1.5
|
17
|
26.4%
|
29
|
TOR
|
4.60
|
10
|
0.321
|
10
|
106
|
9
|
0.143
|
18
|
0.258
|
3
|
31.8%
|
14
|
8.8%
|
12
|
-2.2
|
19
|
17.6%
|
1
|
Edge – TOR
Conclusion: The Blue Jays have been on a major roll lately. They swept the then 1st place Yankees in a four game series earlie in the week and then beat the Angels in the first game of this series and now lead the Yankees by 2 games in the AL East. The Jays have all the edges in this one. First, they are the better hitting team averaging about a third of a run more than the Angels with a 14-point better wOBA and 10-point better wRC+. Second the Jays also have the better bullpen with a atatiscal edge in ujust about every statistical category that I look at. The Brings us to the starting pitchers.
Jack Kochanowicz has mostly struggled this season for the Angels. He has now started 17 games with 11 of them grading as below average and just 5 grading as above average. His stat profile starting with a 1.56 WHIP and 5.44 ERA is ugly
In a rare decent outing, Kochanowicz gave up 2 runs over 4-plus innings in a no-decision against the Nats on Sunday.
Kochanowicz was pulled after running into trouble in the 4th and 5th. He has only pitched into the 6th once in his 6 June starts. Kochanowicz has given up 18 runs over those 25.2 innings so his outings are likely to continue being short unless he suddenly improves and that doesn’t seem likely.
Max Scherzer has only started 3 games for the Jays this season with the first 2 grading as below average, but the last one grading as above.
Scherzer battled right thumb fatigue and also some forearm tightness in his last start in Monday's win over the Yankees, but the 40-year-old was able to throw his between-starts bullpen session on Thursday without any apparent issues, clearing the way for him to take his regular turn in the rotation today. Scherzer's start against the Yankees was easily the best of his three this season , as he gave up just 2 runs over 5 innings, while striking out 7 and didn't walk any.
He Jays are the better team in every repsect and they’re hot.
Pick – TOR 1st 5 and full game MLs
MIL @ MIA
Christian Yelich scored the go-ahead run all the way from 1st on a double by Jackson Chourio in the 8th, as the 49-39 Brewers beat the39-47 Marlins 6-5 last night. Yelich singled to leading off the 8th against Cade Gibson 2-4) and Chourio followed with his game-winning double to help the Brewers win for the 10th time in 14 games. Aaron Ashby retired all seven batters he faced ftp pick up the win and Trevor Megill gave up a two-out single and a walk, but he struck out Otto Lopez swinging for his 19th save in 22 chances.
Starting Pitchers
4:10
|
SP
|
GS +
|
(2/8)
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
MIL
|
Patrick - R
|
(11/16)
|
(5/16)
|
1.32
|
3.51
|
3.93
|
3.43
|
3.97
|
3.87
|
0.215
|
0.321
|
24.4%
|
7.6%
|
MIA
|
Quantrill - R
|
(6/16)
|
(10/16)
|
1.41
|
5.42
|
5.55
|
4.58
|
4.54
|
4.51
|
0.360
|
0.373
|
1.9%
|
7.1%
|
Edge – MIL
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
GB%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
MIL
|
17
|
14
|
69.7%
|
9
|
0.52
|
21
|
1.30
|
15
|
4.19
|
21
|
0.235
|
12
|
69.4%
|
25
|
22.5%
|
13
|
42.9%
|
15
|
9.3%
|
13
|
MIA
|
23
|
15
|
60.6%
|
20
|
0.52
|
21
|
1.33
|
20
|
4.29
|
23
|
0.247
|
20
|
70.6%
|
18
|
20.1%
|
26
|
42.2%
|
16
|
8.9%
|
10
|
Edge – MIL, but close
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
RK
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
Hard%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
MIL
|
4.72
|
8
|
0.312
|
16
|
100
|
14
|
0.136
|
25
|
0.247
|
15
|
29.1%
|
25
|
9.3%
|
4
|
11.7
|
1
|
21.1%
|
11
|
MIA
|
4.24
|
18
|
0.311
|
17
|
96
|
19
|
0.136
|
25
|
0.254
|
9
|
31.9%
|
13
|
8.0%
|
22
|
-2.3
|
20
|
21.3%
|
13
|
Edge – NIL, but very close
Conclusion: The Brewers hold all the edges in this one. First, they are the slightly better hitting team, averaging about a half a run per game more than the Marlinsm but with just a 1-point better wONA and 4-point better wRC+. Second, the Brewers also have the slightly better bullpen with a better save rate, ERA, BA against and J rate. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and I’m giving the Brewers this one as well. .
Chad Patrick has now started 16 games with 11 grading as above average and 5 grading as below. His stat profile is very solid with a decent 1.32 WHIP and 3.51 ERA wioth ERA metrics that are consistent with that ERA, an around league average wOBA and xwOBA as wll as a 92/29 K/BB ratio over 89.2 innings.
Patrick did not factor into the decision in Sunday's 4-3 extra-innings loss to the Rockies, despite giving up just 4 hits and 2 walks over 5 scoreless innings with 8 Ks. The Rockies’ struggled to get anything going against Patrick, who gave up just 1 extra-base hit, a double. It was Patrick’s 3rd starts with 8 or more Ks this season. After pitching to an unimpressive 6.00 ERA in 21 innings in his previous 4 June starts, Patrick turned it around against the Rockies.
Cal Quantrill has now started 16 games for the Marlins this season with more below average starts (10) than above average ones (6). Quantrill, stat profile with its lousy 1.41 WHIP and 5.32 ERA isn’t very good. His ERA metrics are all very high and are his wOBA and xwOBA , which are both considerably higher than the league average and come with an unimpressive 56/22 K/BB ratio over 73 innings.
Quantrill gave up just 2 runs on 3 hits and a walk while striking out 5 over 5 innings in a rare good outing v the Diamondbacks on Sunday, but the Marlins didn’t give him any run support at all until the 8th. He has now made 7 starts without a win, giving 16 runs (15 earned) over 32 innings in that span.
The Brwers should be the better team and Patrick should be the better starting pitcher
Pick – MIL 1st 5 and full game MLs
NYY @ NYM
Juan Soto's second Subway Series in a Mets uniform was a far cry from his first. In mid-May, Soto received a three-day onslaught of boos from scorned Yankee’ fans in his return to Yankee Stadium and looked increasingly uncomfortable as the weekend progressed. However on Friday, he felt right at home in the series opener at Citi Field, receiving a standing ovation from Mets’ fans before his first at-bat and reciprocating the love with a signature performance against his former team. The five-time All-Star went 3-for-4 with a HR, a double and a single, falling just a triple shy of the cycle in the 51-38 Mets' 6-5 comeback win over the reeling 38-41 Yankees as the Mets won their third consecutive game and the Yankees lost their fifth straight.
Starting Pitchers
4:10
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
NYY
|
Rodon - L
|
(11/18)
|
(7/18)
|
1.00
|
2.95
|
2.89
|
3.52
|
3.51
|
3.38
|
0.264
|
0.278
|
3.1%
|
8.7%
|
NYM
|
Montas - R
|
(1/2)
|
(1/2)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edge – NYY
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 bet only
Edge – NYY close
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
RK
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
Hard%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
NYY
|
5.11
|
4
|
0.340
|
2
|
120
|
2
|
0.194
|
3
|
0.254
|
9
|
33.7%
|
4
|
10.4%
|
1
|
-2.7
|
23
|
22.9%
|
23
|
NYM
|
4.34
|
16
|
0.323
|
7
|
110
|
7
|
0.171
|
7
|
0.243
|
20
|
32.6%
|
10
|
9.2%
|
6
|
1.7
|
10
|
20.7%
|
8
|
Edge – NYY
Conclusion: It’s tough to trust the Yankees right now. They’re not hitting and their bullpen is breaking down. The stats say that the Yanks are the better hitting team here, but over the last 30 days, the Yanks wOBA is just 1-point better than the Mets and the Mets have a 1-point better wRC+. In other words, no edge to either one. That leaves the two starting pitchers.
Carlos Rodon has had a good season for the Yankees with 11 of his 18 starts grading as above average and 7 grading as below. His stat profile, featuring a superb 1.00 WHIP and 2.95 ERA with a 123/37 K/BB ratio over 106.2 innings is also very good with ERA metrics that are consistent with that ERA a a wOBA and xwOBA that are significantly lower than league average and an elite K rate.
Rodon did not factor into the decision in Monday's 5-4 loss to the Blue Jays. He gave up 2 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks over 5 innings with f4 Ks. Rodon wasn;t especially sharp in this outing, equaling his season low with just 4 Ks. Despite his struggles, the 32-year-old lefty managed to hold the Jays relatively in check, giving up ng 3 singles and 2 doubles.
Montas gave up 6 runs on 7 hits and a walk over4 innings on Sunday in a loss against the Pirates
He stuggled right out of the gate on Sunday, coughing up 5 runs in the 1st, all with two outs. He gave up back-to-back HRs. Montas gave up another run in the 2nd before ending his outing with two scoreless innings. On the bright side, his fastball did average 95 mph.
Pick – NYY 1st 5 ML
KC @ ARIZ
Vinnie Pasquantino hit 2 HRs and drove in a career-high 6 runs, and Bobby Witt Jr. added three hits, as the 42-47 Royals Royals beat the 43-45 Diamondbacks 9-3 last night. The Royals have now won three of their past four games, while the D-backs have now dropped three straight games.
Starting Pitchers
4:10
|
#VALUE!
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
KC
|
Wacha - R
|
(10/17)
|
(6/17)
|
1.26
|
3.62
|
3.96
|
3.88
|
4.35
|
4.36
|
0.304
|
0.322
|
18.3%
|
6.4%
|
ARIZ
|
Nelson - R
|
(6/8_
|
(2/8)
|
1.02
|
3.61
|
4.01
|
3.57
|
3.83
|
3.86
|
0.268
|
0.324
|
21.9%
|
7.8%
|
Edge – ARIZ
Bullpens
N/A -- This is a 1st 5 only bet
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
RK
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
Hard%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
KC
|
3.36
|
30
|
0.291
|
28
|
81
|
28
|
0.121
|
29
|
0.243
|
29
|
30.6%
|
22
|
6.6%
|
30
|
-4.1
|
25
|
18.8%
|
2
|
ARIZ
|
5.16
|
3
|
0.339
|
3
|
115
|
4
|
0.195
|
2
|
0.255
|
8
|
34.0%
|
3
|
9.2%
|
6
|
3.8
|
7
|
20.3%
|
5
|
Edge – ARIZ, big
Conclusion: I don’t understand how a team that usually stuggles to score runs could possibly put up 9 last night. I don’t see than happenin again and I expect the Diamondbacks to get a few early off Michael Wacha. Ryan Nelson has looked good this season.
Pick – ARIZ 1st 5 ML