For What It's Worth: July 5 Card and Afternoon Games - Baseball - Forums

Posted: 07/05/2025 11:58 AM

For what it’s worth, yesterday was a mixed bag. I bet on just 2 teams and parlayed 4 sides, winning 2 and losing 2. I lost 7.15 units. I guess all the variance that we’ve seen this season hasn’t settled down yet.

My losers were the Braves 1^st 5 and full game MLs, and the winner were the Mariners 1^st 5 and full game MLs.ML.

Fortunately, Cubs and Dodgers both won their games, saving me from complete humiliation. How the Braves didn’t get to Charlue Morton, I just don’t understand. Hell, everybody else has.

One thing that I know going in is that I won’t be betting against the Rockies today. They’re hosting the White Sox in what could well be the shit series of the 2025 season.

and I want no part of it.

Here is my Saturday card. It’s a big one.

ML Parlays	Team #1	Team #2	Odds	Units

	TOR 1st 5 ML	TOR ML	153	2
	TOR 1st 5 ML	MIL 1st 5 ML	179	2
	TOR 1st 5 ML	MIL ML	176	2
	TOR 1st 5 ML	NYY 1st 5 ML	160	2
	TOR 1st 5 ML	ARIZ ML	179	2
	TOR 1st 5 ML	DET 1st 5 ML	175	2
	TOR 1st 5 ML	DET ML	173	2
	TOR 1st 5 ML	SF 1st 5 ML	145	2
	TOR 1st 5 ML	SEA 1st 5 ML	157	2
	TOR 1st 5 ML	SEA ML	151	2
	TOR ML	MIL 1st 5 ML	174	2
	TOR ML	MIL ML	171	2
	TOR ML	NYY 1st 5 ML	156	2
	TOR ML	ARIZ ML	174	2
	TOR ML	DET 1st 5 ML	170	2
	TOR ML	DET ML	174	2
	TOR ML	SF 1st 5 ML	140	2
	TOR ML	SEA 1st 5 ML	153	2
	TOR ML	SEA ML	146	2
	MIL 1st 5 ML	MIL ML	199	2
	MIL 1st 5 ML	NYY 1st 5 ML	182	2
	MIL 1st 5 ML	ARIZ ML	203	2
	MIL 1st 5 ML	DET 1st 5 ML	198	2
	MIL 1st 5 ML	DET ML	203	2
	MIL 1st 5 ML	SF 1st 5 ML	165	2
	MIL 1st 5 ML	SEA 1st 5 ML	179	2
	MIL 1st 5 ML	SEA ML	172	2
	MIL ML	NYY 1st 5 ML	179	2
	MIL ML	ARIZ ML	199	2
	MIL ML	DET 1st 5 ML	194	2
	MIL ML	DET ML	199	2
	MIL ML	SF 1st 5 ML	167	2
	MIL ML	SEA 1st 5 ML	176	2
	MIL ML	SEA ML	169	2
	NYY 1st 5 ML	ARIZ ML	182	2
	NYY 1st 5 ML	DET 1st 5 ML	178	2
	NYY 1st 5 ML	DET ML	182	2
	NYY 1st 5 ML	SF 1st 5 ML	138	2
	NYY 1st 5 ML	SEA 1st 5 ML	160	2
	NYY 1st 5 ML	SEA ML	154	2
	ARIZ ML	DET 1st 5 ML	198	2
	ARIZ ML	DET ML	203	2
	ARIZ ML	SF 1st 5 ML	170	2
	ARIZ ML	SEA 1st 5 ML	179	2
	ARIZ ML	SEA ML	172	2
	DET 1st 5 ML	DET ML	198	2
	DET 1st 5 ML	SF 1st 5 ML	161	2
	DET 1st 5 ML	SEA 1st 5 ML	176	2
	DET 1st 5 ML	SEA ML	168	2
	DET ML	SF 1st 5 ML	165	2
	DET ML	SEA 1st 5 ML	179	2
	DET ML	SEA ML	172	2
	SF 1st 5 ML	SEA 1st 5 ML	145	2
	SF 1st 5 ML	SEA ML	138	2
	SEA 1st 5 ML	SEA ML	151	2

Here are my thoughts on the afternoon games. I’ll post the evening game in a bit.

LAA @ TOR

Myles Straw scored the winning run on a throwing error by pitcher Sam Bachman in the bottom of the 10^th, as the 1^st place 50-38 Blue Jays extended their winning streak to 6 games by beating the 43-44 Angels 4-3 last night. Straw, the automatic runner, scored from 2^nd when Bachman fielded Ernie Clement's sacrifice bunt and overthrew 1^st.
Chad Green worked a scoreless 10^th to notch the win.

Starting Pitchers

3:07

GS +

GS -

WHIP

ERA

xERA

FIP

xFIP

SIERA

wOBA

xwOBA

BB%

LAA

Kochanowicz

(5/17)

(11/17)

1.56

5.44

4.97

5.54

4.76

4.90

0.361

0.356

16.2%

10.6%

TOR

Scherzer - R

(1/3)

(2/3)

Edge – TOR

Bullpens

Team	W	L	SV%	Rk	R/IP	Rk	WHIP	Rk	ERA	Rk	AVG	Rk	LOB%	Rk	K%	Rk	GB%	Rk	BB%	Rk
LAA	24	14	52.5%	27	0.64	28	1.53	28	5.23	28	0.265	28	69.7%	23	22.0%	17	38.8%	26	11.0%	29
TOR	26	13	62.8%	15	0.47	10	1.20	3	3.71	11	0.214	2	72.7%	11	26.0%	2	39.4%	25	9.8%	20

Edge – TOR

Offenses

Team	RPG	RK	wOBA	Rk	wRC+	Rk	ISO	Rk	AVG	Rk	Hard%	Rk	BB%	Rk	BsR	Rk	K%	Rk
LAA	4.30	17	0.307	22	96	10	0.179	5	0.228	28	32.9%	7	7.5%	28	-1.5	17	26.4%	29
TOR	4.60	10	0.321	10	106	9	0.143	18	0.258	3	31.8%	14	8.8%	12	-2.2	19	17.6%	1

Edge – TOR

Conclusion: The Blue Jays have been on a major roll lately. They swept the then 1^st place Yankees in a four game series earlie in the week and then beat the Angels in the first game of this series and now lead the Yankees by 2 games in the AL East. The Jays have all the edges in this one. First, they are the better hitting team averaging about a third of a run more than the Angels with a 14-point better wOBA and 10-point better wRC+. Second the Jays also have the better bullpen with a atatiscal edge in ujust about every statistical category that I look at. The Brings us to the starting pitchers.

Jack Kochanowicz has mostly struggled this season for the Angels. He has now started 17 games with 11 of them grading as below average and just 5 grading as above average. His stat profile starting with a 1.56 WHIP and 5.44 ERA is ugly

In a rare decent outing, Kochanowicz gave up 2 runs over 4-plus innings in a no-decision against the Nats on Sunday.

Kochanowicz was pulled after running into trouble in the 4^th and 5^th. He has only pitched into the 6^th once in his 6 June starts. Kochanowicz has given up 18 runs over those 25.2 innings so his outings are likely to continue being short unless he suddenly improves and that doesn’t seem likely.

Max Scherzer has only started 3 games for the Jays this season with the first 2 grading as below average, but the last one grading as above.

Scherzer battled right thumb fatigue and also some forearm tightness in his last start in Monday's win over the Yankees, but the 40-year-old was able to throw his between-starts bullpen session on Thursday without any apparent issues, clearing the way for him to take his regular turn in the rotation today. Scherzer's start against the Yankees was easily the best of his three this season , as he gave up just 2 runs over 5 innings, while striking out 7 and didn't walk any.

He Jays are the better team in every repsect and they’re hot.

Pick – TOR 1^st 5 and full game MLs

MIL @ MIA

Christian Yelich scored the go-ahead run all the way from 1^st on a double by Jackson Chourio in the 8^th, as the 49-39 Brewers beat the39-47 Marlins 6-5 last night. Yelich singled to leading off the 8^th against Cade Gibson 2-4) and Chourio followed with his game-winning double to help the Brewers win for the 10^th time in 14 games. Aaron Ashby retired all seven batters he faced ftp pick up the win and Trevor Megill gave up a two-out single and a walk, but he struck out Otto Lopez swinging for his 19^th save in 22 chances.

Starting Pitchers

4:10	SP	GS +	(2/8)	WHIP	ERA	xERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%
MIL	Patrick - R	(11/16)	(5/16)	1.32	3.51	3.93	3.43	3.97	3.87	0.215	0.321	24.4%	7.6%
MIA	Quantrill - R	(6/16)	(10/16)	1.41	5.42	5.55	4.58	4.54	4.51	0.360	0.373	1.9%	7.1%

Edge – MIL

Bullpens

Team	W	L	SV%	Rk	R/IP	Rk	WHIP	Rk	ERA	Rk	AVG	Rk	LOB%	Rk	K%	Rk	GB%	Rk	BB%	Rk
MIL	17	14	69.7%	9	0.52	21	1.30	15	4.19	21	0.235	12	69.4%	25	22.5%	13	42.9%	15	9.3%	13
MIA	23	15	60.6%	20	0.52	21	1.33	20	4.29	23	0.247	20	70.6%	18	20.1%	26	42.2%	16	8.9%	10

Edge – MIL, but close

Offenses

Team	RPG	RK	wOBA	Rk	wRC+	Rk	ISO	Rk	AVG	Rk	Hard%	Rk	BB%	Rk	BsR	Rk	K%	Rk
MIL	4.72	8	0.312	16	100	14	0.136	25	0.247	15	29.1%	25	9.3%	4	11.7	1	21.1%	11
MIA	4.24	18	0.311	17	96	19	0.136	25	0.254	9	31.9%	13	8.0%	22	-2.3	20	21.3%	13

Edge – NIL, but very close

Conclusion: The Brewers hold all the edges in this one. First, they are the slightly better hitting team, averaging about a half a run per game more than the Marlinsm but with just a 1-point better wONA and 4-point better wRC+. Second, the Brewers also have the slightly better bullpen with a better save rate, ERA, BA against and J rate. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and I’m giving the Brewers this one as well. .

Chad Patrick has now started 16 games with 11 grading as above average and 5 grading as below. His stat profile is very solid with a decent 1.32 WHIP and 3.51 ERA wioth ERA metrics that are consistent with that ERA, an around league average wOBA and xwOBA as wll as a 92/29 K/BB ratio over 89.2 innings.

Patrick did not factor into the decision in Sunday's 4-3 extra-innings loss to the Rockies, despite giving up just 4 hits and 2 walks over 5 scoreless innings with 8 Ks. The Rockies’ struggled to get anything going against Patrick, who gave up just 1 extra-base hit, a double. It was Patrick’s 3^rd starts with 8 or more Ks this season. After pitching to an unimpressive 6.00 ERA in 21 innings in his previous 4 June starts, Patrick turned it around against the Rockies.

Cal Quantrill has now started 16 games for the Marlins this season with more below average starts (10) than above average ones (6). Quantrill, stat profile with its lousy 1.41 WHIP and 5.32 ERA isn’t very good. His ERA metrics are all very high and are his wOBA and xwOBA , which are both considerably higher than the league average and come with an unimpressive 56/22 K/BB ratio over 73 innings.

Quantrill gave up just 2 runs on 3 hits and a walk while striking out 5 over 5 innings in a rare good outing v the Diamondbacks on Sunday, but the Marlins didn’t give him any run support at all until the 8^th. He has now made 7 starts without a win, giving 16 runs (15 earned) over 32 innings in that span.

The Brwers should be the better team and Patrick should be the better starting pitcher

Pick – MIL 1^st 5 and full game MLs

NYY @ NYM

Juan Soto's second Subway Series in a Mets uniform was a far cry from his first. In mid-May, Soto received a three-day onslaught of boos from scorned Yankee’ fans in his return to Yankee Stadium and looked increasingly uncomfortable as the weekend progressed. However on Friday, he felt right at home in the series opener at Citi Field, receiving a standing ovation from Mets’ fans before his first at-bat and reciprocating the love with a signature performance against his former team. The five-time All-Star went 3-for-4 with a HR, a double and a single, falling just a triple shy of the cycle in the 51-38 Mets' 6-5 comeback win over the reeling 38-41 Yankees as the Mets won their third consecutive game and the Yankees lost their fifth straight.

Starting Pitchers

4:10

GS +

GS -

WHIP

ERA

xERA

FIP

xFIP

SIERA

wOBA

xwOBA

BB%

NYY

Rodon - L

(11/18)

(7/18)

1.00

2.95

2.89

3.52

3.51

3.38

0.264

0.278

3.1%

8.7%

NYM

Montas - R

(1/2)

Edge – NYY

Bullpens

N/A – This is a 1^st 5 bet only

Edge – NYY close

Offenses

Team	RPG	RK	wOBA	Rk	wRC+	Rk	ISO	Rk	AVG	Rk	Hard%	Rk	BB%	Rk	BsR	Rk	K%	Rk
NYY	5.11	4	0.340	2	120	2	0.194	3	0.254	9	33.7%	4	10.4%	1	-2.7	23	22.9%	23
NYM	4.34	16	0.323	7	110	7	0.171	7	0.243	20	32.6%	10	9.2%	6	1.7	10	20.7%	8

Edge – NYY

Conclusion: It’s tough to trust the Yankees right now. They’re not hitting and their bullpen is breaking down. The stats say that the Yanks are the better hitting team here, but over the last 30 days, the Yanks wOBA is just 1-point better than the Mets and the Mets have a 1-point better wRC+. In other words, no edge to either one. That leaves the two starting pitchers.

Carlos Rodon has had a good season for the Yankees with 11 of his 18 starts grading as above average and 7 grading as below. His stat profile, featuring a superb 1.00 WHIP and 2.95 ERA with a 123/37 K/BB ratio over 106.2 innings is also very good with ERA metrics that are consistent with that ERA a a wOBA and xwOBA that are significantly lower than league average and an elite K rate.

Rodon did not factor into the decision in Monday's 5-4 loss to the Blue Jays. He gave up 2 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks over 5 innings with f4 Ks. Rodon wasn;t especially sharp in this outing, equaling his season low with just 4 Ks. Despite his struggles, the 32-year-old lefty managed to hold the Jays relatively in check, giving up ng 3 singles and 2 doubles.

Montas gave up 6 runs on 7 hits and a walk over4 innings on Sunday in a loss against the Pirates

He stuggled right out of the gate on Sunday, coughing up 5 runs in the 1^st, all with two outs. He gave up back-to-back HRs. Montas gave up another run in the 2^nd before ending his outing with two scoreless innings. On the bright side, his fastball did average 95 mph.

Pick – NYY 1^st 5 ML

KC @ ARIZ

Vinnie Pasquantino hit 2 HRs and drove in a career-high 6 runs, and Bobby Witt Jr. added three hits, as the 42-47 Royals Royals beat the 43-45 Diamondbacks 9-3 last night. The Royals have now won three of their past four games, while the D-backs have now dropped three straight games.

Starting Pitchers

4:10	#VALUE!	GS +	GS -	WHIP	ERA	xERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%
KC	Wacha - R	(10/17)	(6/17)	1.26	3.62	3.96	3.88	4.35	4.36	0.304	0.322	18.3%	6.4%
ARIZ	Nelson - R	(6/8_	(2/8)	1.02	3.61	4.01	3.57	3.83	3.86	0.268	0.324	21.9%	7.8%

Edge – ARIZ

Bullpens

N/A -- This is a 1^st 5 only bet

Offenses

Team	RPG	RK	wOBA	Rk	wRC+	Rk	ISO	Rk	AVG	Rk	Hard%	Rk	BB%	Rk	BsR	Rk	K%	Rk
KC	3.36	30	0.291	28	81	28	0.121	29	0.243	29	30.6%	22	6.6%	30	-4.1	25	18.8%	2
ARIZ	5.16	3	0.339	3	115	4	0.195	2	0.255	8	34.0%	3	9.2%	6	3.8	7	20.3%	5

Edge – ARIZ, big

Conclusion: I don’t understand how a team that usually stuggles to score runs could possibly put up 9 last night. I don’t see than happenin again and I expect the Diamondbacks to get a few early off Michael Wacha. Ryan Nelson has looked good this season.

Pick – ARIZ 1^st 5 ML