As I post this, the Mariners are leading 2-0 going into the 4th in their game v the Pirates.
Her are my thought on the one evening game that I’m playing.
BALT @ ATL
The 27-49 Orioles, remain firmly entrenched in the AL East basement, 11the Pirates..5 games behind the Rays. They now head to Atlanta to open a series at the 39-47 Braves, after dropping two of three to the Rangers in Texas. The Braves now trail the Phils by 11.5 games in the NL East, after dropping two of three to the visiting Angels.
Starting Pitchers
|
7:15
|
SP
|
GS +
|
(2/8)
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
BALT
|
Morton - R
|
(5/12)
|
(7/12)
|
1.57
|
5.63
|
4.15
|
4.42
|
4.11
|
4.07
|
0.353
|
0.329
|
23.3%
|
10.3%
|
|
ATL
|
Strider - R
|
(6/9)
|
(2/9)
|
1.14
|
3.86
|
3.80
|
3.56
|
3.73
|
3.61
|
0.292
|
0.316
|
28.2%
|
10.0%
|
Edge – ATL
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
GB%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
BALT
|
12
|
16
|
58.1%
|
17
|
0.56
|
25
|
1.40
|
24
|
4.61
|
26
|
0.247
|
20
|
70.5%
|
19
|
24.8%
|
3
|
41.9%
|
17
|
10.3%
|
24
|
|
ATL
|
15
|
16
|
50.0%
|
29
|
0.44
|
5
|
1.24
|
8
|
3.65
|
10
|
0.224
|
7
|
74.1%
|
6
|
24.1%
|
6
|
44.7%
|
10
|
9.9%
|
21
|
ATL
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
RK
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
Hard%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
BALT
|
4.15
|
20
|
0.309
|
19
|
99
|
16
|
0.158
|
10
|
0.240
|
22
|
33.3%
|
6
|
7.6%
|
27
|
-1.0
|
14
|
23.7%
|
27
|
|
ATL
|
4.05
|
24
|
0.310
|
18
|
96
|
19
|
0.138
|
24
|
0.244
|
19
|
31.6%
|
16
|
9.3%
|
4
|
-1.6
|
18
|
22.7%
|
21
|
Edge- BALT, but very slight
Conclusion: These are two struggling teams. The Orioles have lacked pitching, especially starting pitching , whil je the Braves starting rotation has been decimated by injuries. First, it was spencer Strider, who just recentltly returned and now it’s Chris Sale ans spencer Schwellenbach. The Orioles are the slightly better hitting team here, but averaging just 0.10 more runs per game than the Braves with just a 3-point better wRC+ and the Brave actually have a 10point better wRC+. I can’t give much of ad edge to either team. The bullpen matchup seems to favor the Braves, who have the better R/IP, WHIP, ERA, BA against and strand rate. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and the Braves should hold that edge as well. Charlie Morton is now 41 and probably should have retired. Morton has started 12 games for the Orioles this season with more of them (7) grading as below average than above (6). His stat profile featuring a very high 1.57 WHIP and 5.653 ERA as well as a 77/34 K/BB ratio, isn’t very good. Morton's start was pushed back from Tuesday in Texas to tonight in Atlanta because of low-grade right elbow tendinitis. While the Orioles are optimistic that Morton will be ready to go after a few extra days of rest, how long he’ll go or how effective he’ll be is a completely unknown. Morton is struggling and his best season are in the rear-view mirror.
Spencer Strider has now started 9 games for the Braves with 6 grading as above average, including his last 5, 1 grading as average and just 2 grading as below. Strider’s stat ptofile is across the board much better thn Morton;s, highlighted by a solid 1.14 WHIP and 3.86 ERA, along with a much more impressive 57/20 K/BB ratio over 49 innings.
Strider lost the to Phils on Sunday, despite giving up just 2 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks over 7 innings and striking out 4.
Strider tossed 4 shutout innings before the Phils broke through for a pair of runs in the 5th. Unfortunately for him, the Braves’ offense only managed to score 1. Before this hard-luck start, Strider had racked up 29 Ks during a three-start winning streak.
The Orioles might be a slightly better hitting team (a I emphasize slight), but the Braves have the much better starting pitcher and bullpen.
Pick – ATL 1st 5 and full game MLs