For what it’s worth, yesterday my four-day winning streak came to a screeching end, thanks mostly to the Astros with a big assist from the Tigers. I bet on just 4 teams and parlayed 5 sides, winning 2 and losing 3. I lost 15.28 units. I guess that all the variance that we’ve seen this season hasn’t settled down yet.
My three losers were the Astros 1st 5 and full game MLs, and the Tigers ML.
Fortunately, Cubs and Dodgers both won their games, saving me from complete humiliation.
One thing that I know going in is that I won’t be betting against the Rockies today. They’re hosting the White Sox in what could well be the shit series of the 2025 season.
and I want no part of it.
Here is my 4th of July card. It’s very small.
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team #2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
SEA ML
|
141
|
2
|
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
139
|
2
|
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
ATL ML
|
146
|
2
|
|
SEA ML
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
138
|
2
|
|
SEA ML
|
ATL ML
|
145
|
2
|
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
ATL ML
|
144
|
2
|
Here are my thoughts on the afternoon game between the Pirates and Mariners. I’ll post the evening game in a bit.
PITT @ SEA
The 38-50 Pirates still can be found in the NL Central basement, 14.5 games behind the Cubs, They now head to the Pacific Northwest to open a series at the 45-42 Mariners, after sweeping the visiting Cardinals in a three-game series. The Mariners now trail the Astros by 7 games in the AL West, after splitting a four-game series with the visiting Royals.
Starting Pitchers
4:10
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
PITT
|
Falter - L
|
(8/17)
|
(9/17)
|
1.22
|
3.62
|
3.77
|
4.38
|
4.87
|
5.13
|
0.303
|
0.315
|
14.7%
|
9.1%
|
SEA
|
Woo - W
|
(12/16)
|
(4/16)
|
1.11
|
2.93
|
3.30
|
3.58
|
3.54
|
3.46
|
0.268
|
0.296
|
23.4%
|
5.0%
|
Edge – SEA
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
GB%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
PITT
|
19
|
16
|
56.3%
|
24
|
0.44
|
5
|
1.21
|
5
|
3.64
|
9
|
0.219
|
5
|
71.9%
|
15
|
20.8%
|
22
|
44.3%
|
12
|
9.4%
|
16
|
SEA
|
22
|
15
|
5583%
|
22
|
0.49
|
15
|
1.31
|
17
|
3.61
|
7
|
0.238
|
16
|
73.1%
|
9
|
21.2%
|
19
|
44.6%
|
11
|
9.3%
|
13
|
Edge – PITT, but very slight
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
RK
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
Hard%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
PITT
|
3.52
|
28
|
0.291
|
28
|
82
|
27
|
0.113
|
30
|
0.234
|
24
|
30.8%
|
19
|
8.7%
|
14
|
-4.2
|
26
|
23.4%
|
25
|
SEA
|
4.53
|
13
|
0.320
|
11
|
112
|
6
|
0.156
|
11
|
0.248
|
13
|
32.9%
|
7
|
8.9%
|
10
|
-4.4
|
28
|
22.5%
|
18
|
Edge – SEA
Conclusion: The Pirates are suddenly playing well. They just swept the visiting Cards and the visiting Mets in back-to-back three-game series, but that was in Pittsburgh, when they are 26021 this season. Now, they hit the road where they’re only 12-29. The Mariners have struggled some lately, splitting four games with the Royals in Seattle, after dropping two of three to the Rangers in Texas. The Mariners are the better hitting team here, averaging a full run more than the Pirates with a 29-point better wOBA and 30-point better wRC+. These two bullpens, on the other hand, look pretty evenly matched. I don’t think much of either one and I can’t give an edge to one over the other. That brings us to the two starting pitchers, and it sure looks like the Mariners have a clear edge there with Bryan Woo vacing Bailey Falter. Falter has now started 17 games with more of them grading as below average(9) than above (6). His stat profile is solid with a 1.22 WHIP and 3.62 ERA, alogm with a less than impressive 52/32 K/BB ratio over 87 innings. Falter did not factor into Saturday's decision against the Mets, despite giving up just 1 run on 4 hits and 1 walk and striking out 1 batter over 1.2 innings. Falter did not factor into Saturday's decision against the Mets, allowing one run on four hits and one walk while striking out one batter over 1.2 innings. He didn’t return after an 89-minute rain delay halted play in the 2nd.
Bryan Woo, has started 16 games for the Mariner this season, with 12 grding as above average and just 4 grading as below. His stat profile is very good, highlighted by a fine 1.11 WHIP and 2.93 ERA, along with a a much more impressive 96/17 K/B ratio over over 101.1 innings.
Woo, like Falter, did not factor into the decision in Saturday's 3-2 extra-inning loss to the Rangers, giving up 2 runs (both unearned) on 5 hits and 2 walksand 9 Ks over 6 innings.
He did give up 1 HR after a two-out error in the 3rd but was otherwise excellent. The 25-year-old will wrapped up June with three straight quality starts and has gone at least 6 innings in all 16 of his starts this season.
The Mariners are the better team and Woo is the better starting pitcher.
Pick – SEA 1st 5 and full game MLS