For What It's Worth: July 3 Card - Baseball - Forums

Posted: 07/03/2025 11:32 AM

For what it’s worth, yesterday turned out to be a great day for me. I bet on a staggering 9 teams and parlayed 15 sides, winning 9, pushing 1 and losing just 5. I picked up 11.18 units. I’m still waiting for all this variance that we’ve seen this season to settle down and just maybe, that’s starting to happen. I’m not prepared to say that yet, but yesterday was my 4^th straight profitable day, so things could be looking up. .

My five losers were the Cards 1^st 5 and full game MLs, and the Brewers, Mariners and Dodgers 1^st 5 MLs.

Fortunately, 9 of the remaining 10 sides on my parlay card cashed and 1 pushed. I also had three side bets. I won with the Nats 1^st 5, but lost with the Diamondbacks 1^st 5 and full game MLS. My sides

I didn’t feel well yesterday and I’ve been fighting a cold. There were also just too damned many games that I liked. I didn’t have the time to do my usual breakdowns on the games, so I went with my gut. That was a risky thing to do, but I was feeling lucky and as it turned out, I was.

Here is my Thursday card. It’s much smaller.

ML Parlays	Team #1	Team #2	Odds	Units

	HOU 1st 5 ML	HOU ML	141	2
	HOU 1st 5 ML	DET ML	166	2
	HOU 1st 5 ML	CHI C ML	169	2
	HOU 1st 5 ML	LAD ML	112	2
	HOU ML	DET ML	165	2
	HOU ML	CHI C ML	168	2
	HOU ML	LAD ML	111	2
	DET ML	CHI C ML	197	2
	DET ML	LAD ML	133	2
	CHI C ML	LAD ML	136	2

Here are my thoughts on the one afternoon game. I’ll post mmy thoughts on the evening gamelater.

HOU @ COL

Jose Altuve hit a go-ahead two-run single in the 6^th to move into 2^nd place on Astros’ career hits list as the 54-33 Astros beat the 19-67 Rockies last night to win their 12^th straight series. Altuve went 2 for 5 and Hunter Brown gave up 2 runs on 6 hits over 6 innings, while striking out 8.

Starting Pitchers

3:10	SP	GS +	(2/8)	WHIP	ERA	xERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%
HOU	Walter - L	(4/5)	(1/5)	1.04	3.34	3.34	3.66	2.65	2.80	0.307	0.298	24.6%	1.6%
COL	Freeland - L	(5/15)	(10/15)	1.60	5.56	4.83	3.85	3.89	4.17	0.365	0.352	16.9%	5.2%

Edge – HOU

Bullpens

Team	W	L	SV%	Rk	R/IP	Rk	WHIP	Rk	ERA	Rk	AVG	Rk	LOB%	Rk	K%	Rk	GB%	Rk	BB%	Rk
HOU	19	10	77.8%	1	0.39	2	1.12	1	3.29	3	0.206	1	76.4%	1	29.1%	1	31.2%	1	8.6%	7
COL	9	18	50.0%	28	0.58	26	1.44	27	4.57	25	0.257	25	69.4%	25	19.5%	25	46.3%	6	10.3%	24

Edge – HOU, big

Offenses

Brandin Walter has only started 5 games, but 4 of them grded as above average and just 1 graded as below. His stat profile, whill still based on a very small sample features a fine 1.04 WHIP and 3.34 ERA as well as an impressive 30/2 K/BB ratio over 29,2 innings. His ERA metrics are totally consistent with that ERA and he's carrying a below league average wOBA and xwOBA.

Walter beat the Cubs on Friday, giving up just 1 run on 5 hits, while striking out 5 over 6 innings without walking a batter.

He limited the damage to just a solo HR in the 5^th. It was Walter’s 3^rd quality start in his 5 outings this season, and it was a good bounce-back effort after he was tagged for 7 runs over 6 innings by the Angels in his 1 poor start last Saturday.

Kyle Freeland has now started 15 games for the Rockies with twice as many below average starts (10) as above average ones. Hos stat profile is pretty awful with an ugly 1.60 WHIP and 5.56 ERA as well as a modest 59/18 K/BB ratio over 77.2 innings.

Freeland was beaten 10-6 by the Brewers on Friday, giving up 6 runs on 8 hits and 3 walks while striking out 2.

That outing ended a three-start streak of quality outings bu Freeland. It was the 4^th time that Freeland had given up 6-plus runs this season. He’s given up 7 or more hits in 5 of his last 6 starts.

The Astros have all the edges here and most by a wide margin. That should come as a huge surprise to anyone. Aster all, the Rockies are the worst team in baseball and I will continue to fade them every chance I get.

Pick – HOU 1^st 5 and full game MLs