How in the hell did the Yanks blow this afternoon’s 1^st 5?  They led 20, but Max Fried suddenly gave up 4 runs in the 4^th.

Here are my thought of the early evening games.  I’ll post the late game, the Dodgers, later.

SD @ PHIL

Last night was all about Zack Wheeler. Wheeler struck out 10 over 8 shutout innings, scattering 6 hits and walking none.  Nick Castellanos homered giving Wheeler all the support he heeded as the 50-35 Phils shut out the 45-39 Padres 4-0 last night.

Starting Pitchers 

Edge – PHIL, big

Bullpens

Edge – SD

Offenses

Edge – PHIL

Conclusion:  These are two good teams and we could very well see both in the playoffs.  The Phils are the better hitting team, averaging almost half a run more per game than the Padres with a 14-point better wOBA and 6-point better wRC+.  However, the Padres have the better bullpen, and with the exception of a slightly higher walk rate every other stat tilts to them.  That brings us to the two starting pitchers and that looks close.

Nick Pitta has now started 16 games or the Padres with 10 grading as above average and 6 grading as below.  His stat profile features a fine 1.03 WHIP and 3.36 ERA and his ERA metrics are reasonably consistent with that ERA, while his wOBA and xwOBA are both a little lower than league average.  Pivetta’s also carry a fine 101/24 K/BB ratio over 81 innings this season.\

Pivetta beat the Nats in his last start, giving up just 3 hits and no walks over seven scoreless innings, while striking out 10.  It was a nice bounce-back for Pivetta after he was tagged for 4 runs in just 4.2 innings against the Royals in his last start. The right-hander matched a season high with his 10 Ks and delivered at least seven scoreless innings for the 4^th time this season. 

Cristopher Sanchez has now started 16 games for the Phils with 11 grading as above average and just 3 grading as below.  His stat profile, highlighted by a solid 1.16 WHIP and stellar 2.79 ERA, as well as a 103/28 K.BB ratio over 93.2 innings.  Sanchez’s ERA metrics are totally consistent with that ERA with a wOBA and xwOBA that are both lower than the league average. 

Sanchez didn’t factor into the decision in Thursday's 2-1 loss to the Astros, despite giving up just 1 run on 5 hits and no walks with 11 Ks over 6 innings.  He gave up the run in the 2^nd, but was otherwise dominant.  It  was his 5^th straight quality start, and he hasn't walked a batter in any of his past three starts.

Like I said above, this could be close.  The Phils hit better than the Padres, but I don’t trust them to get to Pivettya.  That said, I don’t expect the Padres to get much off Samchez.  I wish I had more faith in the Phils pen, but wishing don’t make it so.  I think Pivetta’s more liely to struggle than Sanchez.     

Pick – PHIL 1^st 5 and full game MLs

DET @ WASH

The 53-32 Tigers who now lead the AL Central by 11.5 games over the Guardians after taking two of three from the visiting Twins, now head to DC after a day off, to open a series with the 35-49 Nats.  The Nats, now sitting at the bottom of the NL East 14.5 game behind the Phils, return home after taking two of three from the Angles in Anaheim.

Starting Pitchers

Edge – DET

Bullpens

Edge – DET, Big

Offenses

Edge – DET, big

Conclusion:  The Tigers are the much better team hereand it’s not close.  They are the better hitting team, averaging almost ¾ of a run more per game than the Nats with a 20-point better wOBA and 16-point better wRC+.  The Tigers also have the much better bullpen with every single stat poiting in their direction.  That brins us to the two starting pitchers and a bit more troublesome.  Jack Flaherty has started 16 games with 9 grading as above average and 7 grading as below, but 3 of the 7 have come in his last 3 starts. 

 Flaherty was beaten by the A’s 3-0 on Wednesday.  He gave up 3 runs on 5 hits and4 walks over 6 innings, while striking out 7.  One pitch proved to Flaherty’s undoing when he gave up a three-run HR to Nick Kurtz with two outs in the 3^rd.  While it was his 3^rd straight loss, it was also a step in the right direction for the veteran right-hander after he'd given up 15 runs in just five innings over his previous two starts.

Trevor Williams has also started16 games for the Nats, but with just 6 grading as above average and 10 grading as below.  His Stat profile, featuring a mediocre 1.37 WHIP and very high 5.35 ERA as well as just a 61/20 K/BB ratio over 79/2 innings leaves a lot to be desired, as does his mediocre stat profile with an above league average wOBA and xwOBS.      

Williams was beaten by the Padres in his last start, giving up 4 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks while striking out 3 over 5+ innings.

The Nats scored the first three runs of the game, but Williams couldn't stop the Padres' comeback. He allowed two runs in the th  and a game-tying solo Hrin the 5^th.  He walked 2 to begin the 6^th and one of them came around to score, handing Williams his 4^th h loss in 5 June starts.  He has given up a total of 16 runs (15 earned) over 24.1 June innings.

I can’t say that I have a lot of confidence in Flaherty, because I don’t but even in current form,, he’s still a lot better than Williams and the Tigers are a lot better than the Nats.

Pick – DET 1^st 5 and full game

BALT @ TEX

 Gunnar Henderson drove in 4 runs in extra innings as the 37-47 Orioles outlasted the 41-44 Rangers 10-6 in 11 innings last night.

With the score tied 3-3 in the 10^th, Henderson hit a two-run HR and Colton Cowser added a solo HR giving the O’s a three-run lead.  However, Adolis García hit a three-run HR in the bottom half of the inning to tie it 6-6.   In the 11^th.  Luis Vazquez singled into center to score Ryan O’Hearn from 2ⁿ and Vazquez scored on Ramon Laureano's 3^rd double of the game. Henderson followed with a two-run double.  It was the Rangers’ 4^th consecutive extra-inning game to tie a team record set in 2002.

Starting Pitchers

Edge – TEX, big

Bullpens

N.A - this is a 1^st 5 only bet

Offenses

Edge – BALT

Conclusion:  Neither of these team has been very good this season and I don’t know which is the better team.  The O’s are clearly the better hitting team, averaging over a half a run more per game than the offensively challenged Rangers with a 13 point better wOBA and 12-point better wRC+.  Since this is a 1^st 5 bet, that brings us to the two starting pitchers and that’s where the Rangers should have a massive edge tonight.   While I may ot know which of these two teams is better, I sure as hell know which team has the better starting pitcher.  That’s the Rangers with Jacob deGrom.

Brandon Young has only started 3 games for the O’s and all 3  graded as below average.  He has given up 10 runs, on 16 hits and 9 walks over 12.2 innings.  That’s a staggering 25 baserunners in less than 13 innings!

By contrast, Jacob deGrom has now started 16 games this season with 11 graded as above average, including his last 5,  1 grading as average and 4 grading as below.  His stat profile features a stellar 0.88 WHIP and 2.03 ERA as well as a fine 94/20 K/BB ratio over 95.1 innings.  deGrom beat these very same Orioles and Young in Baltimore on Wednesday, giving up just 1 hit and 2 walks over 7 scoreless innings while striking out 7.

He was damned near untouchable, holding the O’s  hitless through 7 innings before Colton Cowser led off the 8^th with a single, the O’s only hit.  Tt was deGrom’s 5^th straight quality start.  He’s now  4-0 with a 1.41 ERA over that 32-nning span).

I don;;t rust this anemic Rangers’ offense, but for 5 innings, I gladly take deGrom.

Pick – TEX 1^st 5 ML

CLEV @ CHI C

The 40-42 Guardians, who now trail the Tigers by 11.5 games in the AL Central, now heady to the “Windy City”  to open a series with the 49-35 Cubs, after getting swept by the visiting Cardinals over the weekend.  The Cubs, who now lead the Brewers by 2 games in the NL Central, return home after dropping two of three to the Astros in Houston.       

Starting Pitchers

Edge – CHI C

Bullpens

Edge – CHI C

Offenses

Edge – CHI C, big

Conclusuin:  The Cubs should be the better team here tonight.  They are the way better hitting team averaging over 1 and a quarter more runs per game than the Guardian with a 38-point better wOBA and a 26-point better wRC+.  Neither of these two bullpens has distinguished itself this season, but of the two, the Cubs hold most of the statisitcal edges, albeit by small margins.  That brings us to the starting pitchers and the Cubs should have an edge there as well.

Gavin Williams has now started 16 games with 9 grading as above average and 7 grading as below.  His stat profile features a high 1.43 WHIP, but decent 3.68 ERA.  Hower, his ERA metrics are all all  considerably higher with an above league average wOBA and xWOBA as well as a mediocre 80/45 K/BB ratio. 

illiams didn’t factor into the decision in Wednesday's 5-4 extra-inning win against the Blue Jays, giving up 4 runs 3 earned) on 5 hits and 3 walks with 2 Ks over 5.1 innings.

He gave up just 1 run over the first 5 innings, but was unable to escape the 6^th, giving up 3 more runs (2 earned) in the inning. Williams did produce  a 2.57 ERA over 28 June innings while notching 3 quality starts during that stretch.

Matthew Boys has also started 16 games for the Cubs, but with 11 grading as above average, 2 grading as average and 3 grading as below.  His stat profile a fine 1.19 WHIP and 2.65 ERA as well as an impressive 82/21 K/BB ratiois with the exception of a slightly lower K rate clearly better than Williams.

Boyd beat the Carinal on Wednesday, tossing 6 scoreless innings giving up 3 hits and no walks while striking out 3.

Boyd was efficient in the outing, throwing 58 of his 79 pitches for strikes, and delivered his 11^th quality start of the season. The Cubs plated at least 1 run in each of the first 5 innings, so Boyd was able to aggressively attack the strike zone and cruise through the Cards’ potent lineup. It should be noted that the Guardians have struggled against lefties this season posting a 28th ranked .273 wOBA and 27^th ranked 75 wRC+ against southpaws.

Pick – CHI C 1^st 5 and full game MLs