For what it’s worth, yesterday was a barely decent day for me.  I only bet on 4 teams and 6 sides, winning 4,  and losing 2.  I picked up 1.86 units.  I’m stillwaiting for all this variance to settle down.

Ny two losers were the Yankees full game ML and the Giants 1^st 5 ML.  In the Yanks case, they won the 1stg 5 thanks to Chisholmes two-run shot in the top of the 5^th, but they continue to struggle to score runs and that’s become a huge problem.

Fortunately, The Phils won their 1^st 5 and full games, while the Yanks and Red Sox both won their 1^st 5s.   

Here is my Tuesday card.  It’s an extensive one.

Here are my thoughts on the one early afternoon game, the Yanks @ TOT.  I’ll post my thoughts on the evening games later.

NYY @ TOR

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 2 for 4 with 3 RBIs and Ernie Clement had 2 hits and scored 2 runs as the 46-28 Blue Jays won for the 4^th  time in their last 5 games beating the Yankees 5-4 last night.   Jazz Chisholm Jr. hit a two-run HR in the top of the 5^th to give the 48-36 Yankees a 2-0 lead in the top of the 5^th, but they couldn’t hold it.  The Blue Jays tied it on RBI singles by pinch-hitter Nathan Lukes and Clement in the bottom of the 6^th and Guerrero the broke the tie with a two-run single.  Making his second start since returning from the IL, Max Scherzer gave up 2 runs on 3 hits over 5 innings, striking out 7 and walking none.  Jeff Hoffman finished, notching his 19^th save in 23 chances.

Starting Pitchers

 Edge – NYY

Bullpens

Edge – None

Offenses

Edge – NYY

Conclusion:  The Yankees should be the better team here, but “should b” and “are” aren’t the same thing.  With the ways that the Yankees are hitting lately, this game, much like last night’s, could be another crapshhoot.  The stats say that the Yanks are the better hitting team, averaging over a half a run more than the Jays with a 23-point better wOBA and a 15-point better wRC+, but not right now.  Over the last 40 days, the Jays  have aa 9-point better wOBA and a 5-pont better WRC+.   The one edge that the Yankees should have is the starting pitching edge.

Max Fried is having a fine season with 15 of his 17 starts grading as above average.  His stat profile, featuring a stellar 0.94 WHIP and 1.92 ERA is beyond outstanding and comes with an impressive 104/21 K/BB ratio over 108 innings. 

 Fried beat the Reds on Wednesday, giving up 1 unearned run on 4 hits and 1 walk with 7 Ks over 7 innings, becoming the first pitcher to reach 10 wins this season/  It was his 5^th straight quality start. Fried has now given up 3 earned runs or less in 16 of his 17 stasrts  and has gone at least 7 innings 8 times. He ranks 2^nd  in the majors in ERA.

Kein Gausman has started 16 games with 10 grading as above average and 6 grading as below.  His 1.06 WHIP is very good, but his 4.21 ERA is very mediocre, but his 90/25 K/BB ratio over 94 innings is impressive.

Gausman beat the Guardians on Thursday, giving up just 2 hits and a walk over 8 scoreless innings, while striking out 6.

It was a stellar bounce-back effort from Gausman, who had given up 7 runs over 4.1 innings in his last start against the Diamondbacks. The Diamondback obviously hit a lot btter than the Guardians, and probably better than the Yankees right now.

I just don’t trust the Yanks to hit right now.  While he;s been more inconsistent than usual this season, Gausman is certainly capable of shutting them down, if the right Gausman shows up.  Fried, on the other hand has been a model of consistency and excellence.  I don’t trust the Yankees to score enough runs, but I’ll take fried over Gausman for 5 innings.

Pick – NYY 1^st 5 ML