For what it’s worth, yesterday turned out to be a decent, but strange bounce back day for me.  The parlays all went really well, but I couldn’t buy a win on any side

 I used four games and six sides on my parlay card, the Tigers 1^st 5 and full game ML, the Astros 1^st 5 ML, and the Padres full game ML.  I cashed all six.  However, I lost all four of my side bets, the Phils 1^st 5 and full game MLs, and the Giants  1^st 5 and full game MLs.

I finished a lousy +6.54 units for the day, leaving me -5.17 units for this still very young and so far, very inconsistent season.

I don’t know what’s going on with the Phils offense these days.  They were shut out by Gavin Williams and three relievers.  There’s just too much talent in this lineup ffor that to happen.  That’s wasn’t the Phils team that I know last night.

The there was a good Giant’s offense that was complely shutdown by Chris Paddack?  Everybody else has teed off on Paddacj this season, but the Giants were stymied and scored just one run?     

Here is my Saturday card.  It’s another small one for a Saturday with only five games that interest me.

NYY @ SAC

Jasson Dominguez hit three HRs and drove in seven runs to lead the 22-16 Yankees to a 10-2 bowout win over the A’s last night.  Dominguez and Paul Goldschmidt hit back-to-back solo HRs off Osvaldo Bido in the 3^rd third.  He then added a solo shot in the 7^th  against A’s reliever Hogan Harris and a grand slam in the eighth against Elvis Alvarado. Dominguez also hit a sacrifice fly.

Starting Pitchers

Edge – NYY, slight

Bullpens

Edge – NYY

Offenses

Edge – NYY

Conclusion:  The Yanks won big, 10-2, last night and they are favored again today.  Thit’s negligible.  ey are arguably the best hitting team in baseball, ranking 1^st in wOBA, wRC+, ISO and batting average, and 2^nd in runs per gameBABIP and walk rate.  They average almost a run and a half more than the A’s with a 32-point better wOBA and 23-point better wRC+.  The Yanks also have the better bullpen giving up fewers runs per inning pitched with a better WGIP, ERA, battng average, strand rate, K rate and walk rate.  That brings us to the two starting pitchers and that is a very close matchup.  Both Carlos Rodon and J.P. Sears are having fine seasons.  Rodon is carrying the slightly better WHIP and ERA metrics. Rodon also has a 10% better K rate, but also a 7% higher walk rate.  I’ll give Rodon a slight edge, but it’s so small that it’s almost negligible. 

The Yanks are the better team, so even if it’s close early, and it very well could be with two very good starting pitchers, the Yanks with the much better offense and pen should be able to pull away late.

Pick #1 – 1^st 5 Under 4.5

Pick #2 – NYY ML

TEX @ DET

The 26-13 Tigers beat the 18-21 Rangers, 2-1 last night.  Tarik Skubal wasn't perfect, but he was damned close to it, giving up just one run two hits and striking out 12 over seven innings. The reigning AL Cy Young winner set the tone for the AL-best Tigers in their return home from a 10-game road trip, by dominating the Rangers and taking a perfect game into the 6^th.  Colt Keith and Dillon Dingler drove in the two Tiger runs, as the Tigers won their fifth straight game.

Starting Pitchers

Edge –TEX

Bullpens

Edge – DET

Offenses

Edge – DET, big   

Conclusion:  The Tigers have played much better than the Rangers have this season.  Offensively, they average more than  two full runs more than the Rangers with a 48-point better wOBA and a 34-point better wRC+.  The Tigers also have the statistically much better bullpen, giving up significantly fewer runs per inning pitched with a 20-point better WHIP, about a run and a half better ERA, as well as a lower batting average and higher strand rate.  That brings us to the two starting pitchers, Jacob deGrom v Jack Flaherty, and that should be a good one.  deGrom, coming off TJ surgery that cost him the entire 2024 season, is off to a great start. delivering five above average starts, including his last four,  in his seven outings with  a stellar 1.00 WHIP and 1.69 ERA.  His ERA metrics are mostly under 3.00 with a well below league average wOBA and xwOBA.  While four of Flaherty’s seven starts have graded as above average, his last two and three of his last four have graded as below average.  In thse last two outings Flaherty has given up eight runs on 14 hits and three walks over hi last 10.2 innings. With the sole exception of a 4% lower K rate than Flaherty, deGrom possesses the much better stat profile.        

The Tigers are the much better team here, but deGrom has been better than Flahery, especially of late..            

Pick –TEX 1^st 5 ML

MIA @ CHI WS

Andrew Vaughn homered as the 11-28 White Sox beat the 14-23 Marlins 6-2 last night to snap a four-game slide.

Starting Pitchers

Edge – CHI WS

Bullpens

ge – CHI WS

Offenses

Edge – MIA

Conclusion:  These are two bad teams and relying on either one to win a game doesn’t sound like a very good idea.  The Marlis are the better team here.  Offensively, they are averaging more than three-quarters of a run more  per game than the White Sox with a 24-point better wOBA and 10-point better wRC+.  The Marlins biggest weakness is in their bullpen.  In this game, while the White Sox bullpen isn’t very good, it is statistically better than the Marlins pen, allowing fewer runs per inning pitched with a better WHIP, ERA, batting average, strand rate, K rate and walk rate.     That brings us to the two starting pitchers and the White Sox should have a big edge there with Shane Smith facing Edward Cabrera.  Smith has delivered five above average starts in his seven outings, while Cabrera has produced just two in his 5 utings.  Smith’s 1.15 WHIP and 2.41 ERA are both Much better than Cabrera’s 1.68 WHIP and 6.28 ERA, and his ERA metrics are also better. 

While neither is very good, The Marlins are probably better than the White Sox, but only because of a better offenses, and they’re not really that much better.  The White sox have the better pen and the better starting pitcher.  The oddsmakers make this a very close game and I agree, but I’m usually partial to teams with the better pitching.  I could and maybe should pass on this game, but in this spot, I’ll back a bad team against another bad team. 

Pick – CHI WS 1^st 5 and full game MLs

CHI C @ NYM

Francisco Lindor led off the game with the first of the Mets’ four solo HRs. Brett Baty and Jeff McNeil also homered in the 2^nd and e Juan Soto added another in the 4^th and an RBI single in the 8^th as the 25-14 Mets rolled to a 7-2 win  over the 22-17 Cubs last night, improving to 14-3 at Citi Field. Soto added.

Starting Pitchers

Edge – NYM

Bullpens

Edge – NYM big

Offenses

Edge – CHI C

Conclusion: These are two very good teams.  The Cubs are the better hitting team here, averaging almost a full run more than the Mrts with a 17-point better wOBA and a 10-point better wRC+.  However, of the Cubs have a weakness, it’s their bullpen.  Across the board, the Mets pen is the statistically better unit and ot’s not particularly close.  That bring us to the two starting pitchers and that matchup seems to favore the Mets as well.  Brad Keller hasn’t started a single game for the Cubs this season.  He’s worked exclusively out of the Cubs bullpen and hasn’t gone more than two innings in any of his 15 appearances.  He has given up 9 runs (7 earned) on 15 hits and 6 walks over 16.2 innings.  His stat profile is OK, but it’s a very small sample size.  By Contrast, Tylor Megill has started seven games with four grading as above average and three grading as below.  His 1.17 WHIP and 2.50 ERA are both solid and his ERA metrics, while all a little higher than that fine ERA, are still pretty good.  

With the better starting pitcher, a way better bullpen and a decent offense, I like the Mets chances here

Pick – NYM 1^st 5 and full game MLs

SD @ COL

Gavin Sheets had two doubles and four RBIs, Luis Arraez, Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill each had three hits as the 24-13 Padres beat the 6-32 Rockies 13-9 last night.

Starting Pitchers

 Edge SD, but I don’t have much to back this up

Bullpens

Edge – SD, huge

Offenses

Edge – SD, big

Conclusion:  Despite what we saw last night, I still can’t call the Padres a good hitting team, but I can say that they hit a hell of a lot better than the wretched Rockies, averaging almost a full run  more per game than the Rockies with a 43-point better wOBA and a 46-point better wRC+.  The Padres also statistically have the best bullpen in baseball, ranking 1^st in runs allowed per inning pitched, WHIP, ERA, batting average and strands rate.  That brings us to the two starting pitchers and we don’t have a lot of dat on either one.  Stephen Kolek has only started one game for the Padres, but it was a good one, as he tossed 5.1 scorelesss inningsg a the Pirates, giving up 4 hit and and 22 walk, while striking out 4.  By contrast, Bradley Blalock has starte two games and appeared in four for the Rockies ging up 11 runs on 154 hit (3 HR) over 12.1 innings with 7 Ks.    

The Padres are a very good team and the Rockies are probably the worst team in baseball.  I’ll take the better team with probably the better starting pitcher.         

Pick – SD 1^st 5 and full game MLs