For what it’s worth, yesterday turned out to be a shitty day for me.  It started out OK, but the two evening games were real killers, especially that dodger game. 

 I used five games and nine sides on my parlay card.  I cashed five of them, the Royals 1^st 5 and full game MLs, the Tigers 1^st 5 and full game MLs and the Phils full game ML.  However, I lost the other four, the Twins 1^st 5 ML, the Phils 1^st 5 ML and the Dodgers 1^st 5 and full game MLs.

I finished a lousy -24.46 units for the day, leaving me-11.71 units for this still very young and so far, very inconsistent season.

The Twins loss was partially my fault and partially bad luck. When the Twins announced Bailey Ober as yesterday’s starting pitcher instead of Joe Ryan, my original bet was voided since I almost always specify starting pitchers.  However, I went ahead and bet it again.  After all, the bet was essentially a fade of Dean Kremer.  The bad luck was that the Twins who trailed 2-1 after five, tied the game in the 6^th (an inning too late for my bet) and won it late.  What can I say.  It happens.

I can’t explain what in the hell happened to the Phils offense in the first five innings last night.  Phils starter Jesús Luzardo had gone 40.1 innings without allowing a HR but gave one up in the 21^st last night, and Ryan Pepiot, who has mostly struggled all season lomg, tossed five scoreless inning.  The Phils, inexplicably could get anything going against him.

Finally, there was the Dodgers, the cruelest cut of all.  They came into this game averaging about 5.5 runs per game, but kas night they were completely stymied by Brandon Pfaadt over seven scoreless innings.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto came into this game carrying a miniscule 0.93 WHIP and a league leading 0.90 ERA over his first seven MLB starts with an elite  32% K rate, but last night, he ran into trouble in the 4^th. He walked Pavin Smith to lead off the inning,  Josh Naylor followed with a single and Eugenio Suárez was hit by a pitch to load the bases with no outs. Gabriel  Moreno then drove a Yamamoto cutter to right, that barely cleared the fence for his first HR of the season.  And suddenly, it was over.

You can’t make this stuff up.  A guy who’s never hit an MLB HR (Moreno) takes Yamamoto, one of the best pitchers in the game deep with the bases loaded!  It’s a sick joke and the joke was on me and the universe is laughing at me..

Here is my Friday card.  It’s a small one for a Friday with only five games that interest me.

Here are my thoughts on those five games.

TEX @ DET

The 18-20 Rangers dropped two of three to the Red Sox at Fenway, including a 5-0 shutout loss yesterday.  The 25-13 Tigers return home after sweeping a three-game series at the Rockiess, including two 10-2 and 11-1 blowout wins yesterday at Coors.

Starting Pitchers

Edge –DET, huge

Bullpens

Edge – DET

Offenses

Edge – DET, big   

Conclusion:  The Tigers have certainly played much better than the Ragers hae this season.  Offensively, they average over a fukk run more than the Rangers with a 48-point better wOBA and a 34-point better wRC+.  The Tigers also have the statistically much better bullpen, giving up significantly fewer runs per inning pitched with a 20-point better WHIP, about a run and a half better ERAas well as a lowe batting average and higher strand rate.  That brings us to the two starting pitchers and that looks to be a massive mismatch with reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal facing off with Patrick Corbin.  At 35, Corbin is living on borrowed time.  His 3.28 ERA is surprisingly solid , but his 1.50 WHIP is lousy and his ERA metrics are all about a full run higher than that deceptive ERA.  Corbin is just about done.  Skubal, on the other hand has deliverd five above average start in his last five outings with a stellar 0.98 WHIP and 2.21 ERA.  His ERA metrics are all totally consistent with that ERA and comes with an elite 29% K rate. 

Skubal is the much better starting pitcher and the Tigers are the much better team.            

Pick –DET 1^st 5 and full game MLs

PHIL @ CLEV

The 22-14 Phils just completed a three-game sweep of the Rays in Tampa Bay. including a way too close 7-6 ten inning win last night.  The 22-15 Guardians had yesterday off and returned home after taking two of three from the Nats in DC.       

Starting Pitchers

Edge – PHIL

Bullpens

Edge – CLEV

Offenses

Edge – PHIL

Conclusion:  The Phils are the better team here.  Offensively, they are averaging more than half a run more  per game han the Guardians with a 25-point better wOBA and 10-point better wRC+.  If the Phils have a weakness, it’s their bullpen, which has already blown 8 saves this season. the Guardians’ pen has a much lower runs per inning pitched, WHIP, ERA and strand rate with a higher K rate and lower walk rate.  That brings us to the two starting pitchers and that’s nowhere near as clear cut.  Both Aaron Nola and Gaving Williams have more belopw average starts than above average ones, but Nola has , at least, delivered two above average starts in his last wto outings and that’s two mopre than Williams has in his last two.  Nola’s stat profle isn’t all that impressive, but it is still, across the board, better than Williams’.      

The Phils are better than the Guardians, and Nola has been better than Williams, but their bullpen issues still trouble me, but I’m still pitting my money on the better team and that’s the Phils.. 

Pick – PHIL 1^st 5 and full game MLs

CIIN @ HOU

The 19-20 Reds head to Houston to open a series with the Astros tonight, after dropping three of four to the Braves  in Atlanta, including an agonizing 5-4 eleven inning loss last night.  The 19-18 Astros had yesterday of and returned home after dropping two of three to the Brewers in Milwaukee.           

Starting Pitchers

Edge HOU, big

Bullpens

Edge – HOU

Offenses

Edge – CIN

Conclusion:  The Reds hit better than the Astros, averaging almost three-quarters of a run ore per game than the Astros with a 17-point better WOBA, but the Astros have the clearly better bullpen.  Still, the biggest mismatchhre is he starting pitching matchup between Nick Marlinez and Hunter Brown.  Brown has simply been much better.  He’s delivered seven above average starts in his seven outiings this season with a superb 0.89 WHIP and 1.67 ERA, fine ERA metrics and an elite 31% K rate.  Martinex has pitched OK for the Reds, but his stat profile just doesn’t compare to Brown’s.

I don’t trust the Astros, but for five innings I absolutely trust Hunter Brown.   

Pick – HOU 1^st 5 ML

SF @ MINN

The 24-14 Giants had yesterday off after taking two of three from the Cubs at Wrigley and head to Minnesota to open a weekend series at the Twins.  The 18-20 Twins swept the vising Orioles in a three- game series , including a 5-2 come-r4om-behiiind win yesterday.   

Starting Pitchers

Edge – SF

Bullpens

Edge – SF

Offenses

Edge –SF

Conclusion:  The Giants hold all the edges in this one.    They are the better hitting team, averaging more than three-quarters of a run more than the Twins with an 8-point better wOBA and a 3-point better wRC+.  The also have the statistically much better bullpen, across the board. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and while Jordan Hicks has a lousy WHIP and ERA, his ERA metrics are all at least two full runs lower than that bloated ERA, telling me he’s actually pitched a lot better than his ERA would suggest, and he has still been clearly better than Chris Paddack.  Padfdack is currently carrying a high 1.58 WHIP and ugly 5.57 ERA.  All his ERA metrics are over 5.00 woth a poor K rate and ihgh walk rate.  Paddack is a dfisaster.     

Pick – SF 1^st 5 and full game MLs

SD @ COL

The 23-13 Padres had yesterday off and head to Colorado to open a series at the6-31 Rockies after dropping two of three o the Yankees at Yankee Stadium.  The Rockies were swept by the visiting Tigers, including getting blown out twice, 10-2 and 11-1 yesterday.

Starting Pitchers

 Edge NONE, they both suck

Bullpens

Edge – SD, huge

Offenses

Edge – SD

Conclusion:  While I can’t call the Padres a good hitting team, I can say that they hit a hell of a lot better than the Wretched Rockies, averaging more than three-quarters of a run more per game than the Rockies with a 43-point better wOBA and a 46-point better wRC+.  The Padres also statistically have the best bullpen in baseball, ranking 1^st in runs allowed per inning pitched, WHIP, ERA, batting average and strands rate.  That brings us to the painful subject, the starting pitching matchup.  Both Randy Vasquez and Antonio Senzatela ae truly awful.  Their stat profiles are painful to even look at. I don’t want any part of either one.  I wish that I could fade both.

Still, the Padreas are a vry good team and the Rockies are probably the worst team in baeball.  I’ll take the better team.          

Pick – SD ML