For what it’s worth, yesterday turned out to be a very good one for me.  I used just four games and seven sides on my parlay card and cashed five of them, the Astros 1^st 5 and full game MLs, the Mariners ML, the Dodgers ML and the Tigers ML.  I only lost one, the Mariners 1^st 5 ML, and pushed omne, the Tigers 1^st 5.

I finished a tremendous +38.33 units for the day, leaving me+12.75 units for this still very young and so far, very inconsistent season.

Here is my Thursday card.  It’s all parlays

Here are my thoughts on those games.

BALT @ MINN

Byron Buxton homered in his third straight game and Harrison Bader added a pinch-hit homer as the 17-20 Twins beat the  13-22 Orio;es 5-2 last night.  It was their fourth straight win and the O’ fourth straight loss. 

Starting Pitchers

Edge –MINN, big

Bullpens

Edge – MINN

Offenses

Edge – BALT, but very slight 

Conclusion:  I don’t really like either of these teams all that much much, but there is one huge difference between them and that is the two starting pitchers.  Dean Kremer is coming off a rare strong outing for the O’s  in his last start against the Royals, but he’s still carrying an ugly 1.43 WHIP and 5.73 ERA with ERA metrics that are almost as bad as that ERA would suggest and he misses very few bats (a 13.5% K rate).  By contrast, Joe Ryan pez has delivered five above average starts in his seven outings this season and his stat profile, featuring a 0.90 WHIP and 2.93 ERA with ERA metrics that are totally consistent with that ERA. That profile is across the board better than Kremer’s and it’s not at all close.

I don’t trust either of these teams, but for five innings I’ll take Ryan over Kremer all day, every day.   

Pick –MINN 1^st 5 ML

CHI WS @ KC

Bobby Witt Jr. hit a two-run homer and give Michael Wacha all the support he needed as the 22-16 Royals best the 10-27 White Sox 2-1 last night.  It was Wacha’s third straight quality start in which  he gave up just three hits and a walk over seven scoreless innings.  The Royals, who now lead th majors with 18 quality starts.

Starting Pitchers

Edge KC big

Bullpens

Edge – KC big

Offenses

Edge –NONE

Conclusion:  After a really poor 1-7 start, the Royals have now won 14 of their last 16 games.  These two offenses are close.  The White Sox average 0.07 more runs per game than the Royals, biu the Royals have a 7-point better wOBA and a slightly better Bbtting average and BABIP.  Their wRC+s are almost identical.  I can’t give either team an edge here.  It’s just too damned close.       The Royals also have the statistically much better bullpen, with the better WHIP, ERA and save rate, as well as giving up 0.15 fewr runs per inning pitched.  That bring us to the two starting pitchers.  Davis Martin has struggled with consistency as half of his six starts graded as above average and the other half graded as below.  However, Martin’s ERA metrics ae all at least a full run higher than that ERA telling me that Martin hasn’t picthed as well as that ERA would suggest.  With the exception of a slightly higher walk rate, Kris Bubic’s statt profile is across the board much better than Martin’s.    

The stats definitely favor the Royals, who have the much better pitching, starting and relief, and an offense that on a par with the White Sox.             

Pick – KC 1^st 5 and full game MLs

DET @ COL

Spencer Torkelson hit a go-ahead double in the top of the 10^th   as the 23-13 Tigers eked out a win over the stumbling 6-29 Rockies 8-6 last night  to give Tiger manager A.J. Hinch his 900th win as a big league manager.

Starting Pitchers

Edge – DET

Bullpens

Edge – DET

Offenses

Edge – DET, big

Conclusion:  It didn’t look that way last night, at least until the 10^th, but the Tigers are a lot better than the wretched Rockies, who are probably the worst team in baseball.  The best I can say about them is that they aren’t quite as bad at Coors.  They’re still really bad, but just not as bad.  The Tigers again hold all the edges here.  Offensively, they average almost two full runs more than the Rockies with a 57-poit better wOBA and wRC+.  The Tigers also have the much better bullpen.  That brings us to the two starting pitchers.  The Tigers should have a big edge here with Casey Mize facing Kyle Freeland.  Mize has delivered four above average start in his six outings with a fine 1.-0 WHIP and 2.70 ERA, but while his xERA is also under 3.00, the rest of his ERA metrics are considerably higher and very mediocre..  By contrast Freeland, who my friend Top Gun has often called “Free Money” Freeland because betting against him has always been a money-making proposition.  Hiw WHIP, ERA and xERA are akk considerably hiugher than Mize’s, but the rest of his ERA metrics arfe somehow lower?  It doesn’t make much sense.  IMHO Mize is much better tgjan Freeland, who made a career by being mediocre.    

Since this game is at Coors, I suppose the Rockies do have a chance here, but not a good one.  The Tigers are a lot better and I expect that they’ll find a way to get it done, just like they did last night.      

Pick – DET 1^st 5 and full game MLs

PHIL @ TB

Cristopher Sánchez gave up just one hit over six scoreless innings, while Trea Turner, Bryson Stott and Bryce Harper each drove in two runs, as the 21-15 Phils shut out the 16-20 Rays 7-0 last night.

Starting Pitchers

Edge – PHIL

Bullpens’

Edge – TB

Offenses

Edge – PHIL

Conclusion:  The Phils are the much better team here.  Offensively, they are averaging more than a full run more  per game more than the Rays with a 22-point better wOBA and 6-point better wRC+.  If the Phils have a weakness, it’s their bullpen, which has already blown 8 saves this season. the Rays pen has a much lower runs per inning pitched, WHIP, ERA and strand rate.  I have to give the Rays the bullpen edge.  That brings us to the two starting pitchers and that looks like a huge mismatch.  Jesus Luzardo is having a fantastic season highlighted by a 1.18 WHIP and 1.94 ERA with very good ERA metrics and a stellar 27.6%K rate.  His stat profile is superb and almost across the board better than Ryan Pepiot’s.  Pepiot has struggled, starting seven games with five grading as below average.  His stat profile is, across the board, at best mediocre and often just not very good. 

The Phils are better than the Rays, but their bullpen issues trouble me.  I love the Phils 1^st 5 with Luzardo, but the full game is less certain/.  Still, I expect the Phils to put up enough runs to beat this mediocre Rays team.       

Pick – PHIL 1^st 5 and full game MLs

LAD @ ARIZ

The Dodger head to the desert for a weekend series with their NL West rivals, the Diamondbacks.

Freddie Freeman singled twice and hit a bases-loaded triple,  driving in four runs and extended his hitting streak to 12 games, and Shohei Ohtani tripled and drew three walks, including an intentional pass during a six-run 7^th and the 25-12 Dodgers beat the Marlins 10-1 yesterday.

Juan Soto homered in consecutive at-bats and Kodai Senga overcame early control problems and tossed six scoreless innings as the Mets beat the Diamondbacks 7-1yesterday.

Starting Pitchers

Ede – LAD

Bullpens

Edge – LAD

Offenses

Edge – LAD

Conclusion:  I think that the Dodgers are better than the Diamondbakcks.  Offensively, it’s close.  Bothteams can slug it out with the best of them, but the Dodgers average almost half a ll run more than the Diamondbacks with an 11-point better wOBA and wRC+.  The Dodgers also have the much better bullpen, giving up .12 fewer runs per inning pitched with a .31 lower WHIP and a 2.89 lower ERA, so I’ll give the Dodgers a big edge there as well.  That brings us to the two starting pitchers, and whule randon Pfaadt has pitchers mostly well for the Diamondbacks this season, Yoshinobu Yamamota has pithed even better.  With the exception of a slightly higher walk rate, Yamamoto has the significantly better stat profile, highlighted by a 0.93 WHIP and 0.90 ERA as well as an elite 32% K rate.   

Pick – LAD 1^st full and full game MLs