For What It's Worth: May 7 Two late Games - Baseball - Forums

Posted: 05/07/2025 3:11 PM

The Astros and Giants both came through for me this afternoon and right now the Mariners just took a 6-5 lead in the top of the 8^th after trailing through the first seven inning, and the Dodgers just took a 1-0 lead in the top of the 6^th.

Here are my thoughts on the two evening games.

TEX @ BOS

Nathan Eovaldi struck out seven over six strong innings, and the 18-18 Rangers had 16 hits in their first game since adding Bret Boone as a hitting coach as the Rangers beat the 18-19 Red Sox 6-1 last night.

Starting Pitchers

6:45	SP	GS +	GS -	WHIP	ERA	xERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%
TEX	Mahle - R	(5/7)	(2/7_	0.98	1.19	3.44	2.48	3.80	4.11	0.220	0.304	21.9%	9.6%
BOS	Houck - R	(3/7)	(4/7)	1.47	6.38	4.58	5.14	3.93	4.02	0.366	0.346	18.9%	7.5%

Edge – TEX

Bullpens

Team	RPG	Rk	wOBA	Rk	wRC+	Rk	ISO	Rk	AVG	Rk	BABIP	Rk	BB%	Rk	BsR	Rk	K%	Rk
TEX	3.31	28	0.286	27	83	25	0.131	23	0.228	25	0.272	26	6.7%	29	0.2	15	22.3%	17
BOS	4.86	7	0.331	7	108	9	0.165	10	0.255	5	0.311	1	9.5%	12	4.2	2	23.3%	25

Edge - BOS

Conclusion: This is an interesting game. The stats tell us that the Red Sox are the muv=ch better hitting team, averaging over a run and a lalf more runs per game than the Rangers, with a 45-point wOBA and a 25-point better wRC+. How much difference adding Bret Boone as a hitting coach remains to be seen, but last night’s outburst was at least encouraging. The Red Sox bullpen remains highly problematic and the Rangers pen is he clearly better unit in this game. That leaves the two starting pitchers and that matchup also favors the Rangers. Tyler Mahle Tyler Mahle has been an eye-opening revelation for the Rangers. Statistically, while it’s still a small sample size, Mahle holds all the edges when compared to the disappointing Tanner Houck. Houck pitched really well for the Red Sox last , but has struggled this season with more below average starts (4) than above average ones (3).

Fot five innings, I trust Mahle a lot more thn U trus Houck.

Pick – TEX 1^st 5 ML

CIN @ ATL

The Braves’ Chris Sale and the Red’s Andrew Abbott were locked in a scoreless duel through seven innings. Michael Harris II hit a tying double in the 9^th and Marcell Ozuna singled home the winning run in the 10^th as the 17-18 Braves rallied past the 18-19 Reds 2-1 last night for their third straight win.

Starting Pitchers

7:15	SP	GS +	GS -	WHIP	ERA	xERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%
CIN	Greene - R	(5/7)	(2/7)	0.82	2.53	2.58	3.32	3.08	2.61	0.255	0.265	33.3%	4.8%
ATL	Holmes - R	(4/6)	(2/6)	1.21	4.24	4.46	5.08	4.17	4.35	0.297	0.343	15.0%	13.6%

Edge – CIN, big

Bullpens

N/A – This is a 1^st 5 only bet

Offenses

Team	RPG	Rk	wOBA	Rk	wRC+	Rk	ISO	Rk	AVG	Rk	BABIP	Rk	BB%	Rk	BsR	Rk	K%	Rk
CIN	4.78	9	0.322	12	97	16	0.145	15	0.249	11	0.301	8	9.6%	11	0.7	12	22.5%	18
ATL	4.03	18	0.317	14	99	14	0.153	13	0.242	17	0.289	14	9.2%	14	0.8	10	22.6%	20

Edge – CIN

Conclusion: Offensively, this is a very close matchup. The Reds ae averaging about three quarters of a run more than the Braves with a 5-point better wOBA, but the Braves have a 2-point better wRC+. The Bullpens are irrelevant since this is a 1^st5 bet only. It’s all about the two starting pitchers and there’s no doubtin my mind that the Reds have the much better one in Hunter Greene. Greene has started seven games for the Reds with five grading as above average. His 0,92 WHIP and 2.53 ERA are both excellent and his ERA metrics are totally consistent with that ERA. Now, factor in a K rate of over 33% and a walk rate of under 5% and you can appreciate just how well Greene is pitching. Grant Holmes, on the other hand, has been mostly very mediocre. Yes four of his six starts this season have graded as above average and his 1.21 isn’t awful, but his 4.24 ERA is mediocre and most of Holmes’ ERA are even higher. That also the case with his xwOBA which is 46-points higher than his actual wOBA.

This is all about Greene v Holmes andGreenes has just been a lot better.

Pick – CIN 1^st 5 ML

DET @ COL

With yesterday’s postponement, the 22-13 Tigers had two days y off and are in Colorado to take on the Rockies, after taking two of three from the Angels in Anaheim over the weekend. The 6-28 Rockies also had two days off and returned home after dropping two of three to the Giants in San Francisco.

Starting Pitchers

8:40	SP	GS +	GS -	WHIP	ERA	xERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%
DET	Jobe - R	(2/5)	(2/5)	1.33	3.38	3.62	4.94	4.91	4.20	0.306	0.311	17.6%	13.7%
COL	Dollander	(2/5(	(3/5)	1.42	6.48	6.06	6.42	4.08	4.02	0.384	0.389	22.3%	8.9%

Edge – DET

Bullpens

Team	W	L	SV	BS	HLD	R/IP	Rk	WHIP	Rk	ERA	Rk	AVG	Rk	LOB%	Rk	K%	Rk	BB%	Rk
DET	7	3	10	3	10	0.39	7	1.06	3	2.56	3	0.198	7	73.9%	9	21.4%	20	8.0%	5
COL	3	7	5	6	11	0.49	13	1.42	25	3.70	12	0.235	17	73.7%	10	19.3%	26	12.5%	30

Edge – DET

Offenses

Team	RPG	Rk	wOBA	Rk	wRC+	Rk	ISO	Rk	AVG	Rk	BABIP	Rk	BB%	Rk	BsR	Rk	K%	Rk
DET	5.11	6	0.334	6	117	5	0.168	6	0.255	5	0.306	4	9.3%	13	2.6	5	23.3%	25
COL	3.12	30	0.277	30	60	30	0.132	21	0.209	30	0.275	25	7.8%	24	-0.2	18	27.8%	30

Edge – DET, big

Conclusion: The Tigers are a lot better than the wretched Rockies, who are probably the worst team in baseball. The best I can say about them is that they aren’t quite as bad at Coors. They’re still really bad, but just not as bad. The Tigers hold all the edges here. Offensively, they average almost two full runs more than the Rockies with a 57-poit better wOBA and wRC+. The Tigers also have the much better bullpen. That brings us to the two starting pitchers. Jacksin Jobe hasn’t pitched great, but his stat profile is still better than Chase Dollander’s. Jobe has the better WHIP, ERA, wOBA and xwOBA.

Since this game is at Coors, I suppose the Rockies do have a chance here, but not a good one. The Tigers are a lot better and I expect that they’ll find a way to get it done.

Pick – DET 1^st 5 and full game MLs