. However, I lost bot hthe Dodgers and Cubs 1st 5 and full game MLs. I split my five three side bets, cashing on the Phils 1st 5 and full game MLs, losing on the Cubs 1st 5 and full game MLs and pushig on the Pitrates 1st 5 ML.
I finished -15.62 units for the day, leaving me -25.58 units for this still very young and so far very inconsistent season.
Here is my Wednesday card.
|
ML Parlays
|
Team 1
|
Team 2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
HOU ML
|
216
|
2
|
|
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
198
|
2
|
|
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
SEA ML
|
194
|
2
|
|
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
LAD ML
|
154
|
2
|
|
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
175
|
2
|
|
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
DET ML
|
176
|
|
|
|
HOU ML
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
202
|
2
|
|
|
HOU ML
|
SEA ML
|
187
|
2
|
|
|
HOU ML
|
LAD ML
|
157
|
2
|
|
|
HOU ML
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
178
|
2
|
|
|
HOU ML
|
DET ML
|
179
|
2
|
|
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
SEA ML
|
181
|
2
|
|
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
LAD ML
|
143
|
2
|
|
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
163
|
2
|
|
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
DET ML
|
163
|
2
|
|
|
SEA ML
|
LAD ML
|
140
|
2
|
|
|
SEA ML
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
159
|
2
|
|
|
SEA ML
|
DET ML
|
160
|
2
|
|
|
LAD ML
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
124
|
2
|
|
|
LAD ML
|
DET ML
|
124
|
|
|
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
DET ML
|
143
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sides
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
|
125
|
2
|
|
|
SF ML
|
|
138
|
2
|
|
|
TEX 1st 5 ML
|
|
105
|
2
|
|
|
CIN 1st 5 ML
|
|
-115
|
2
|
Here are my thoughts on the earlier games. I’ll post my breakdowns of the two later games a little later on .
HOU @ MIL
Jake Bauers hit a two-run homer as the 19-18 Brewers got all if their runs in the 1st, teeing off on Hayden Wesneski, who hadn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his previous five starts this season. for a 4-3 win over the 17-18 Astros last night.
Starting Pitchers
|
1:10
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
HOU
|
Valdez – L
|
|
(4/7)
|
(4/7_
|
2.27
|
4.39
|
4.46
|
3.77
|
3.61
|
3.84
|
0.327
|
0.342
|
21.6%
|
8.8%
|
|
MIL
|
Priester - R
|
|
(1/4)
|
(3/4_
|
1.76
|
5.79
|
4.99
|
5.33
|
5.06
|
5.31
|
0.367
|
0.359
|
15.7%
|
1.8%
|
Edge HOU
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
HOU
|
5
|
3
|
9
|
3
|
23
|
0.32
|
3
|
1.07
|
4
|
2.74
|
4
|
0.197
|
5
|
79.0%
|
4
|
27.5%
|
3
|
8.3%
|
10
|
|
MIL
|
4
|
6
|
6
|
3
|
21
|
0.61
|
26
|
1.38
|
22
|
4.98
|
28
|
0.236
|
19
|
64.3%
|
27
|
22.0%
|
18
|
10.6%
|
21
|
Edge – HOU
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
BABIP
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
HOU
|
3.89
|
21
|
0.305
|
18
|
97
|
16
|
0.127
|
24
|
0.243
|
16
|
0.292
|
11
|
8.5%
|
20
|
-0.4
|
19
|
21.5%
|
11
|
|
MIL
|
4.70
|
11
|
0.301
|
23
|
89
|
24
|
0.118
|
27
|
0.238
|
19
|
0.287
|
16
|
9.2%
|
14
|
4.2
|
2
|
20.9%
|
10
|
Edge –HOU
Conclusion: I wish that I had more confidence in the Astros, but I don’t. They’ve just been too damned inconsistent. That said, while the Brewers average close to a full run more per game than the Astrs, it’s the Astros that have the slightly better wOBA, wRC+, ISO, batting average, and BBIP. It makes no sense. The Astros also have the statistically much better bullpen, across the board. That bring us to the two starting pitchers. Framber Valdez has struggled a lot more than usual this season with as many below average starts (4) as above average ones. His stat profile is mostly solid, across the board better than Quinn Priester’s. Priester has mostly struggled.
The stats definitely favor the Astros, but their sheer inconsistency makes this a low confidence pick.
Pick – HOU 1st 5 and full game MLs
SF @ CHI C
Patrick Bailey hit a tiebreaking single in the 23-14 Giants' nine-run 11th, after the 22-14 ralleed from a 5-3 defict in the 9th as the Giants beat the Cubs14-5 last night.
Starting Pitchers
|
7:40
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
SF
|
Ray - L
|
|
(3/6)
|
(3/6)
|
1.25
|
3.05
|
3.74
|
4.26
|
4.16
|
4.21
|
0.292
|
0.316
|
25.9%
|
4.3%
|
|
CHI C
|
Brown
|
|
(2/6_
|
(4/6)
|
1.66
|
4.88
|
4.40
|
3.70
|
3.82
|
3.81
|
0.344
|
0.340
|
23.8%
|
9.5%
|
Edge – SF, close
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
SF
|
12
|
4
|
11
|
4
|
25
|
0.30
|
2
|
1.01
|
2
|
2.38
|
2
|
0.195
|
4
|
79.6%
|
3
|
23.1%
|
13
|
7.7%
|
3
|
|
CHI C
|
6
|
8
|
8
|
7
|
21
|
0.56
|
22
|
1.41
|
24
|
4.41
|
21
|
0.236
|
19
|
66.7%
|
23
|
19.2%
|
27
|
11.7%
|
25
|
Edge – SF, big
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
BABIP
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
CHI C
|
6.00
|
1
|
0.348
|
2
|
123
|
3
|
0.193
|
3
|
0.262
|
1
|
0.299
|
10
|
9.8%
|
6
|
3.2
|
4
|
20.3%
|
8
|
|
SF
|
4.86
|
7
|
0.310
|
195
|
97
|
16
|
0.156
|
12
|
0.231
|
24
|
0.279
|
22
|
9.7%
|
7
|
1.4
|
8
|
23.0%
|
22
|
Edge – CHI C, big
Conclusion: Both of these teams are having good seasons. It wasn’t the case last night, but the Cubs are the better hitting team, here, averaging over a run more per game than the Giants with a 38-point better wOBA and a 26-point better wRC+. However, it’s the Giants who have the much better bullpen and that was apparent last night as well. The Giants allow 0.26 fewer runs per inning with a 0.40 better WHIP and a 2-run lower ERA. It’s not close. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and that matchup is closer. Robbie Ray has resurrected his career in San Francusco. He’s gone 7 innings in each of his last two starts and given up just two total runs whle striking out 16. His stat profile is across the board better than Ben Brown’s.
I would have liked this one a lot more if the Cubs had won last night, but they didn’t. The Giants have the better pitching, starting and relief, and I’m betting that’s enough. This is another low confidence pick, but at a nice juicy price, I’ve got to take the dog here.
Pick – SF 1st 5 and full game MLs
SEA @ SAC
Pinch-hitter Cal Raleigh put Seattle ahead with a two-run single in the 9th and Julio Rodríguez went 3 for 4 with a solo HR as the 21-14 Mariners beat the 20-17 A’s 5-3 last night to even their series at one game apiece.
Starting Pitchers
|
3:35
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
SEA
|
Woo - R
|
|
(6/6)
|
(0/6)
|
0.83
|
2.58
|
2.64
|
2.72
|
3.48
|
3.28
|
0.226
|
0.268
|
25.9%
|
4.8%
|
|
SAC
|
Hoglund - R
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edge – SEA, big
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
SEA
|
9
|
4
|
13
|
4
|
20
|
0.51
|
16
|
1.32
|
18
|
3.60
|
11
|
0.248
|
24
|
71.2%
|
17
|
18.9%
|
28
|
8.5%
|
12
|
|
SAC
|
5
|
3
|
11
|
54
|
24
|
0.59
|
25
|
1.48
|
26
|
4.52
|
22
|
0.243
|
22
|
65.5%
|
24
|
23.6%
|
11
|
12.1%
|
27
|
Edge – SEA
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
BABIP
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
SEA
|
5.11
|
5
|
0.337
|
4
|
125
|
2
|
0.174
|
5
|
0.245
|
14
|
0.283
|
19
|
11.0%
|
1
|
-3.4
|
30
|
21.7%
|
12
|
|
SAC
|
4.20
|
16
|
0.325
|
10
|
110
|
7
|
0.167
|
7
|
0.254
|
9
|
0.289
|
14
|
8.1%
|
22
|
-0.6
|
20
|
19.8%
|
5
|
Edge – SEA
Conclusion: The Mariners have all the edges in this one. Offensively, they average almost a full run more per game than the A’s with a 12-point better wOBA and a 15-point better wRC+. The Mariners also have the statistically better bullpen. That rings us to the two starting pitchers ant that is today’s starting pitching mismatch. Bryan Woo has been tremendous this season with above average starts in each of his six outing this season. Couple that with a sub 1.00 WHIP, a 2.58 ERA great ERA metrics, a 26% K rate and an under 5% walk rate and it’s the total package. Woo couldn’t be pitching much better. By contrast, Gaml Hoglund has only started one game for the A’s this season. It was a good outing, Hoglund gave up just one run on six hits over six innings at the Marlins with seven Ks. Still the Mariner are a big upgrade.
The A’s have played a lot better than I expected, but the Mariners have played even better.
Pick – SEA 1st 5 and full game MLs
LAD @ MIA
Jesús Sánchez singled with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 10th, lifting the 14-21 Marlins to an improbable 5-4 win over the 24-12 Dodgers last night. For the Dodgers, it was only their second loss in their last ten games.
Starting Pitchers
|
4:40
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
LAD
|
Knack - R
|
|
(0/2)
|
(2/2)
|
1.73
|
7.27
|
5.67
|
5.02
|
5.00
|
5.35
|
0.355
|
0.379
|
17.1%
|
14.6%
|
|
MIA
|
Bellozo - R
|
|
(1/3)
|
(2/3)
|
1.66
|
4.97
|
4.70
|
5.12
|
6.78
|
6.67
|
0.355
|
0.350
|
12.1%
|
14.8%
|
Ede – None, both totally suck
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
LAD
|
14
|
6
|
13
|
6
|
31
|
0.42
|
9
|
1.20
|
11
|
3.59
|
10
|
0.234
|
16
|
75.7%
|
6
|
27.2%
|
4
|
8.2%
|
7
|
|
MIA
|
8
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
16
|
0.62
|
28
|
1.53
|
27
|
4.89
|
27
|
0.251
|
25
|
69.7%
|
19
|
18.8%
|
29
|
12.1%
|
27
|
Edge – LAD
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
BABIP
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
LAD
|
5.36
|
3
|
0.346
|
3
|
121
|
4
|
0.201
|
2
|
0.255
|
5
|
0.292
|
11
|
9.9%
|
5
|
1.7
|
7
|
22.1%
|
16
|
|
MIA
|
4.46
|
14
|
0.308
|
17
|
91
|
23
|
0.135
|
19
|
0.248
|
12
|
0.306
|
4
|
7.6%
|
27
|
0.1
|
16
|
23.0%
|
22
|
Edge – LAD
Conclusion: The Dodgers are a lot better than the Marlins and should be totally embarrassed by last night’s pitiful performance. If you can’t hit Cal Quantrill, YOU DESERVE TO LOSE! Offensively, the Dodgers average almost a full run more than the Marlins with a with a 38-point better wOBA and a 30-point better wRC+. The Dodgers also have the much better bullpen, giving up .20 fewer runs per inning pitched with a .33 lower WHIP and a 1.30 lower ERA, and I’ll give the Dodgers a big edge there as well. That brings us to the two starting pitchers, and I want no part of either one. I cant say for sure which is worse, but they are both total shit.
Pick – LAD and full game ML
TEX @ BOS
Nathan Eovaldi struck out seven over six strong innings, and the 18-18 Rangers had 16 hits in their first game since adding Bret Boone as a hitting coach as the Rangers beat the 18-19 Red Sox 6-1 last night.
Starting Pitchers
|
6:45
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
TEX
|
Mahle - R
|
|
(5/7)
|
(2/7_
|
0.98
|
1.19
|
3.44
|
2.48
|
3.80
|
4.11
|
0.220
|
0.304
|
21.9%
|
9.6%
|
|
BOS
|
Houck - R
|
|
(3/7)
|
(4/7)
|
1.47
|
6.38
|
4.58
|
5.14
|
3.93
|
4.02
|
0.366
|
0.346
|
18.9%
|
7.5%
|
Edge – TEX
Bullpens
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
BABIP
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
TEX
|
3.31
|
28
|
0.286
|
27
|
83
|
25
|
0.131
|
23
|
0.228
|
25
|
0.272
|
26
|
6.7%
|
29
|
0.2
|
15
|
22.3%
|
17
|
|
BOS
|
4.86
|
7
|
0.331
|
7
|
108
|
9
|
0.165
|
10
|
0.255
|
5
|
0.311
|
1
|
9.5%
|
12
|
4.2
|
2
|
23.3%
|
25
|
Edge - BOS
Conclusion: This is an interesting game. The stats tell us that the Red Sox are the muv=ch better hitting team, averaging over a run and a lalf more runs per game than the Rangers, with a 45-point wOBA and a 25-point better wRC+. How much difference adding Bret Boone as a hitting coach remains to be seen, but last night’s outburst was at least encouraging. The Red Sox bullpen remains highly problematic and the Rangers pen is he clearly better unit in this game. That leaves the two starting pitchers and that matchup also favors the Rangers. Tyler Mahle Tyler Mahle has been an eye-opening revelation for the Rangers. Statistically, while it’s still a small sample size, Mahle holds all the edges when compared to the disappointing Tanner Houck. Houck pitched really well for the Red Sox last , but has struggled this season with more below average starts (4) than above average ones (3).
Fot five innings, I trust Mahle a lot more thn U trus Houck.
Pick – TEX 1st 5 ML