Going with the road team this afternoon. Best of luck with your picks everyone!
MLB Record: 15-11-3 (+3.15 Units) on posted MLB picks this season
Houston Astros @ Milwaukee Brewers (12:10PM CST)
My Pick: Houston Astros ML (-127)
I'm posting this kind of early with some confidence that Houston will remain favored. Assuming they do, this sets up to be a pretty good spot for them. American League teams playing interleague day games as a road favorite are 10-1 SU (90.9%) and 8-1 against the run line (88.9%) playing the third game of a series after losing the first two when both teams have a day off before their next series. Those teams have won each of the previous nine games (going back to the 2008 season) straight up and covered the run line in each of the previous three (going back to the 2021 season). Teams in that spot are 1-0 SU (100.0%) versus Milwaukee, 4-0 SU (100.0%) when they lost their previous game as an underdog, 4-0 SU (100.0%) when the team has a below .500 record, and 2-0 SU (100.0%) when the teams next game is at home while their opponents is on the road. Framber Valdez will be on the bump for Houston and although he's had some struggles this season, he's always come through when the Astros have gone into the third game of a series after having lost the previous two. Houston is 3-0 SU (100.0%) when Valdez starts as a road favorite in that spot. Houston is also 2-0 SU (100.0%) when Valdez starts and the team plays their next game at home after a day of rest. Quinn Priester will be starting for Milwaukee and the Brewers are 1-3 SU (25.0%) in games that he's started in. Although they did manage to win the only home game he started in (which was also an interleague game), he's 0-1 SU (0%) playing the third game of a series and 0-2 SU (0%) when his team won their previous game. This will be the Astros last chance to win a game in this series and AL teams in this spot have pulled through in the past, including Astros games when Valdez is pitching. They could very likely cover the run line, but the ML price isn't bad so that's what I'm going with.