For what it’s worth, last night turned out to be a very good bounce back spot for me.     I used just two games and four sides on my parlay card and cashed all four of them, the Dodgers 1^st 5 and full game MLs and the Cubs  1^st 5 and full game MLs.  However, I did lse to of my three side bets, on the Padrts 1^st 5 ML and the Diamondbacks ML, but I cashed with the Padres full game ML    

I finished +21.44 units for the day, leaving me -9.96 units for this still very young and very inconsistent season.

Here is my Tuesday card.

LAD @ MIA

Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman each homered, and Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernández each had two hits, as the 24011 Dodgers roughed up Sandy Alcántara again in a 7-4 win over the 13-21 Marlins last  night.

Starting Pitchers

Ede – LAD

Bullpens

Edge – LAD

Offenses

Edge – LAD

Conclusion:  The Dodgers are a lot better than the Marlins and that was the case again last night.  Offensively, they average almost a full run more than the Marlins with a with a 38-point better wOBA and a 30-point better wRC+.  The Dodgers also have the much better bullpen, giving up .20 fewer runs per inning pitched with a .33 lower WHIP and a 1.30 lower ERA, and I’ll give the Dodgers a big edge there as well.  That brings us to the two starting pitchers.  I’m not sure what to expect from Tony Gonsolin who has only made one start after dealing with back issues that delayed the start of his season.  He was OK in his first start v these very same Marlins in LA last week, giving up three runs on six hits over six innings with an impressive 9 Ks.  The Marlins will start Cal Quantrill.   Quantrill is a bad joke.  Of his six starts, five  have graded as below average with an ugly 1.89 WHIP and 8.10 ERA.  Quantrill’s ERA metrics are almost as bad as that ERA with a wOBA and xwOBA that are both over .400! I’m always looking to fade Quantrill and this looks like yet another  great spot to do so. 

Pick – LAD 1^st 5 ML and full game MLs

PHIL @ TB

The 19-15 Phils had yesterday off and head to Tampa after taking two of three from the visiting Diamondback over the weekend.  The 16-18 Rays also had the day off after taking two of three from the Yankees at Yankee stadium.      

Starting Pitchers

Edge – PHIL

Bullpens

Edge – TB

Offenses

Edge – PHIL

Conclusion:  The Phils should be the better team here.  Offensively, they are averaging more than three quarters of a run per game more than the Rays with a 22-point better wOBA and 6-point better wRC+.  If the Phils have a weakness, it’s their bullpen, which has already blown 8 saves this season. the Rays pen has a much lower runs per inning pitched, WHIP, ERA and strand rate.  That brings us to the two starting pitchers and I’m very inclined to back Zack Wheeler here.  His stat profile is superb and almost across the board better than Drew Rasmussen’s and he also has an outstanding track record. 

The Phils are better than the Rays, but their bullpen issues trouble me.  Ilkove the Phils 1^st 5 with Wheeler, but the full game is less certain/.  Still I expect the Phils tut up enough runs to beat this mediocre Rays team.       

Pick – PHIL 1^st 5 and full game MLs

SD @ NYY

Manny Machado hit a two-run double and Xander Bogaerts followed with a two-run single in an 8^th inning comeback against Devin Williams and Luke Weaver, as the 23-11 Padres rallied past the 19-16 Yankees 4-3 on a soggy night. notching their sixth straight win.

Starting Pitchers

Edge – SD

Bullpens

Edge – SD

Offenses

Edge – NYY, big

Conclusion:  This is again looking like your classic good hitting v good pitching dilemma.  The Yankees are the clearly better hitting team in this matchup.  They average almost a half a run more per game than the Padres with a 37-point better wOBA and a 27-point better wRC+.  However, the Yanks offense has been either feast or famine this season and the Padres have the pitching to shut any offense down.  They have the best bullpen in baseball and they proved it again last night giving up just one hit over four scoreless innings.  Thid bullpen ranks 1^st in runs per inning pitched, WHIP, ERA, batting average and strand rate.  Now that is impressive!  That brings us to the two starting pitchers and unlike last night. this looks like a mismatch.  Former Yankee Michael King is having a grsat season with five of his six starts grading as ablve average.  His stat profile is, across the board, much better than Clarke Schmidt’s.     

Umfprtimately, the Padres aren’t a juicy dog today, but I’ll take the team with the better pitching starting and relief.          

Pick – SD 1^st 5 and full game MLs

 BALT @ MINN

The 13-20 Orioles continue to struggle this season after winnng the AL East last season.  They just dropped two of three to the visiting Royals and now hit the road and head to Minnesota for a series at the Twins.  The 15-10 Twins have also disappointed this season and return home after taking two of three from the Red Sox at Fenway.      

Starting Pitchers

Edge –MINN, big

Bullpens

Edge – MINN

Offenses

Edge – BALT, but close  

Conclusion:  I don’t like either of these teams very much, but there is oe huiger difference between them and that is the two starting pitchers.  Cade Povich is coming off a rare strong outing for the O’s in his last start against the Yankees, but he’s still carrying an ugly 1.43 WHIP and 5.16 ERA with ERA metrics that are every bit as bad as that ERA would suggest.  By contrast, Pablo Lopez has delivered four aboove average starfts in his five outings this season and his stt profile ism across the board better than Povich’s and it’s not at all close.

I don’t trust either of these teams, but for five innings I’ll take Lopez over Povich all day, every day.    

Pick – NINN 1^st 5 ML

SF @ CHI C

Ian Happ homered and drove in three runs and added a sacrifice fly, Carson Kelly also homered un the Cubs five-run 6^th, and singled in two more runs in the decisive outburst helping Matthew Boyd who pitched six innings of two-run ball as the 22-14 Cubs beat the sloppy 22-14 Giants 9-2 lst night.

Starting Pitchers

Edge – CHI C

Bullpens

Edge – SF, big

Offenses

Edge – CHI C, big

Conclusion:  Both teams are having good seasons.  The Cubs are the better hitting tea, here, averaging almost a run and a half more runs per game than the Giants with a 38-point better wOBA and a 26-point better wRC+.  However, it’s the Giants who have the much better bullpen, allowing 0.26 fewer runs per inning with a 0.40 better WHIP and a 2-run lower ERA.  It’s not close either.  That brings us to the two starting pitchers, and that natchup isn’t particularly close.  Much to my surprise, Colin Rea  has delivered above average starts in each of his his four outings, with a better stat profile, across the board, than Justin Verlander.  At 42, Verlander is very near the end of the road and doesn’t have much left.  Time for him to bow out gracefully and proceed directly to the Hall of Fame.

I don’t really believe Reas is anywhere near as good as he’s looked so far this season.  Regression is coming, but Verlander is done.  The Cubs won with their bats last night and I think that they do it again and I’m hopig that real has another good outing in him before the clock strikes midnight.

Pick – CHI C 1^st 5 and full game MLs

PITT @ STL

Willson Contreras hit a go-ahead HR in a four-run 6^th as the 17-19 Card beat the 12-24 Pirates 6-3 last night for their third straight victory.

Starting Pitchers

Edge – PITT

Bullpens

N/A – this is a 1^st 5 bet only

Offenses

Edge – STL

Conclusion:  These are two bad teams.  The Cards are bad and the Pirates are worse.  The Cards at least have an offense.  They average almost a run and a half more than the Pirates with a 34-point better wOBA and a 27-point better wRC+.  Since this is a 1^st5 bet only, the two bullpens aren’t relevant.  That brings us to the two starting pitchers.  That bring is to the two starting pitchers.  Paul Skenes is coming off a rare rough outing v the Cubs.  Good pitchers usually bounce back from rough outing like than and Skenes is a very good pitchers with six of his seven starts grading s aboe average, a sub 1.00 WHIPa stellar 2.74 ERA and ERA metrics that are totally consistent with that ERA.  Natthew Libratore has also pitched well for the Cards, but, across the boar, Skenes has the clearly better stat profile.  He’s special!

I absolutely do not trust this Pirates team.  Other than Skenes, they are nothing but a hot mess.  However for five innings, I an expecting a string out from Skenes tonight.     

Pick – PITT 1^st 5 ML

DET @ COL

The 22-13 Tigers had yesterday off and head to Colorado to take on the Rockies, after taking two of three from the Angels in Anaheim.  The 6-28 Rockies also had the day off and return home after dropping two of three to the Giants in San Francisco.

Starting Pitchers

Edge – DET

Bullpens

Edge – DET

Offenses

Edge – DET, big

Conclusion: The Tigers are a lot better than the wretched Rockies.  The best I can say about the Rockies is that they aren’t quite as bad at Coors.  They’re still really bad, but just not as bad.  The Tigers hold all the edges her.  Offensively, they average almost two full runs more than the Rockies with a 57-poit better wOBA and wRC+.  The Tigers also have the much better bullpen.  That brings us to the two starting pitchers.  Jacksin Jobe hasn’t pitched great, but his stat profile is still better than Chase Dollander’s.  Jobe has the better WHIP, ERA, wOBA and xwOBA.

Since this game is at Coors, I suppoe the Rockies do have acjhance here, but not a good one.  The tigers are a lot better and I expect that they’ll fid a way to get it done.       

Pick – DET 1^st 5 and full game MLs