For what it’s worth, yesterday afternoon went well, but the evening really sucked. 

I used six games and eleven sides on my parlay card and cashed five of them, the Rangers 1^st 5 ML, the Giants 1^st 5 and full game MLs and the Tigers 1^st 5 and full game MLs.   I also lost four, the Red Sox ML, The Mets ML and the Dodgers 1^st 5 MLs  Finally, I pushed two, the Red Sox 1^st 5 ML and the Mets 1^st 5 ML.   I also pushed my one side bet on the A’s 1^st 5 ML.

I finished a lousy -31.79 units for the day, leaving me -31.40 units for this still very young and very inconsistent season.

Here is my Monday card.

LAD @ MIA

The 23-11 Dodgers head down to Miami after taking two of three from the Braves over the weekend in Atlanta, while the 13-20 Marlins were dropping two of three to the visiting A’s.

Starting Pitchers

Ede – LAD

Bullpens

Edge – LAD

Offenses

Edge – LAD

Conclusion:  The Dodgers are a lot better than the Marlins.  Offensively, they average almost a full run more than the Marlins with a with a 38-point better wOBA and a 30-point better wRC+.  The Dodgers also have the much better bullpen, giving up .20 fewer runs per inning pitched with a .33 lower WHIP and a 1.30 lower ERA.  That brings us to the two starting pitchers,  all I’ll give the Dodgers a slight edge there as well.  Ben Casparius has appeared in 11 games for the Dodgers, but has only started one at the Cubs, giving up one hit over 2.2 scoreless innings with 4 Ks.  His stat profile is very good and across the board better than Sandy Alcantara’s.  Alcantara has struggled in his return after missing almost two full seasons recovering from TJ surgery.  He started fast with two solid but short outings, but has given up 20 runs in his last 4 outings (16.1 innings)              

Pick – LAD 1^st 5 ML and full game MLs

SD @ NYY

The 22-11 Padres head to the “Big Apple” to open a series with the Yankees, after sweeping a three-game series at the Pirates over the weekend.  The 19-15 Yankees dropped two of the three to the visiting Rays over the weekend.

Starting Pitchers

Edge – SD, but close

Bullpens

Edge - SAC

Offenses

Edge – NYY, big

Conclusion:  This is looking like your classic good hitting v good pitching dilemma.  The Yankees are the clearly better hitting team in this matchup.  They average almost a half a run more per game than the Padres with a 370point better wOBA and a 27-point better wRC+.  However, the Yanks offense has been either feast or famine this season and the Padres have the pitching to shut any offense down.  They have the best bullpen in baseball, ranking 1^st in runs per inning pitched, WHIP, ERA, batting average and strand rate.  That brings us to the two starting pitchers and that could be a great matchup.  Nick Pivetta has been outstanding with five of his six starts grading as above average.   His WHIP and ERA are both better than Carlos Rodon with ERA metrics that are all as good as or better than Rodon’s, as well as a higher K rate and lower walk rate.  Rodon’s has been less consistent with four of his seven starts grading as above average, but three grading as below.  His stat profile is solid.  Rodon has pitched well, but just not quite as well as Pivetta.

As a dog, I’ll take the team with the better pitching.          

Pick –  SD 1^st 5 and full game MLs

SF @ CHI C

The 22-13 Giants head East to pen a series with the Cubs at Wrigley after taking three of four from the visiting Rockies over the weekend.  The 21-14 Cubs return home after taking two of three from the Brewers in Milwaukee over the weekend.      

Starting Pitchers

Edge – CHI C

Bullpens

Edge – SF, big

Offenses

Edge – CHI C, big

Conclusion:  Both teams are having good seasons.  The Cubs are the better hitting tea, here, averaging one and a quartert more runs per game than the Giants with a 38-point better wOBA and a 26-point better wRC+.  However, it’s the Giants who have the much better bullpen, allowing 0.26 fewer runs per inning with a 0.40 better WHIP and a 2-run lower ERA.  It’s not close.  That brings us to the two starting pitchers, and that natchup is closer.  Matthew Boyd has deliveredfive above average starts in his six outings, while Landen Roupp has only produced two.  Boyd also has an over 2 run better ERA and mostly better ERA metrics.

Pick – CHI C  

NYM @ ARIZ

The 22-13 Mets head to the desert to take on the 18-16 Diamndbacks after dropping two of three to the Cards in St. Louis.  The Diamondbacks return home after dropping two of three to the Phils in Philly.    

Starting Pitchers

Edge ARIZ

Bullpens

Edge – NYM

Offenses

Edge – ARIZ

Conclusion:  These are two good teams.  Offensively, the Diamondbacks average a little more than  third of a run more per game and a very slight 4-point better wOBA, but the Mets have a 3-point better wRC+.  Now that’s close!  The Mets also have the clearly better bullpen across the board.  That brings us to the two starting pitchers Griffin Canning has pitched surprisingly well for the Mets this season, after what I’d describe as a mediocre career.  Canning has delivered five above average starts in his six outings with a solid stat profile, but I’m still not completely sold on this guy.  Ryne Nelson also has a solid stat profile, but his is exclusively out of the Diamondbacks’ bullpen and he’s yet to go more than four innings.  I gave Nelson the edge based on better numbers, but truthfully it’s so damned close that maybe that edge isn’t real.

I expect the Diamondbacks to win this one with their bats.            

Pick – ARIZ full game ML