MLB 2025

MLB "FAVORITE SIDE (FAV)" 2025 ( 3 - 2 )  +.20 units

MLB "UNDERDOG SIDE (DOG)" 2025 ( 0 - 0 )

MLB "TOTAL SCORE" 2025 ( 0 - 0 )

Money never sleeps, Bud.

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Blue Horseshoe musings, also know as... "An idea popped into my head:"

Recap:  Unlike the ARI & ATL picks, in the LAA game, the ebb of luck came our way in the form of the walkoff win with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th.  It should have never have come to that, but LAA literally did everything possible to lose us the number, including having there second baseman forget how many outs there were in an inning.  ATL had numerous opportunities to bring home the ridiculous moneyline number available in the early innings, especially when immediately after recommending the juicy moneyline, Hunter Greene pops his groin. But like I shared previously, there is an ebb and flow to lady luck that is needed, even if you have a killer algorithm for a given sport like I have built for beisbol after years of tinkering with it.  What I can assure you just as certain as the sun rises in the morning is that the angles I will share with the brethren will ALWAYS provide you a decided advantage over the book. 

If you watched either of the ARI or ATL games, the opportunities were NUMEROUS for them to bring the number home.  In fact, sans a couple of bad ump calls, both ARI and ATL played better baseball than the eventual winning team.  The unfortunate thing about my algorithm is that it does not necessarily predict "blowouts" but rather finds edges based on regression to the mean analysis of some very telling variables that ultimately play a major role in winning, or losing, a ball game. The algorithm has been painstakingly tweaked to "look for" uptrending/downtrending statistical events that greatly influence outcomes. The new umpire strike zone is wreaking a bit of havoc presently, but I hope to make an adjustment to account for a more traditional strike zone being called rather than the former strikezone+ umps have previously called.  This is a BIG deal that is impacting pitching & hitting strategy significantly, more so than that garbage "torpedo bat" bullshit narrative that was polluting the airwaves early season.  Shit, me and my peeps were messing with torpedo bat type of designs with a bat manufacturer out of the Hippie west coast for a wood bat travel ball team I was involved with a decade or so ago.  It's not the bat, it's the hand path, balance, athleticism originating from your core down through your glutes, and of course an individuals innate mental ability to "slow down" the process.

My apologies for posting today's number late and not capturing the "underdog line," but unfortunately I make my bones as a "fixer," not necessarily in the mold of "Ray Donovan," but rather more like the character "Michael Clayton."  For you lawyers in the forum, and I know there is a shit load of you, you know what I do.  So when my phone rings, its often a problem that needs my immediate attention, and I'll be pulled away from sharing a rock solid angle with the brethren. Ho hum, it is what it is.

For tomorrows games no clean angles are catching Blue Horseshoe's algorithm curiosity at present.  But, I still need to crunch some numbers on my spreadsheets to reach the "DEFCON 1" threshold I require before I have the confidence to reach into my tin coffee can and peel off a few benjies to invest.

Time to wind it down and go and spark up a Cuban stick, preferably a Bolivar Royal Corona, but will settle for a Cohiba Behike BHK 52.  Have a good evening gents... 

MLB 2025

MLB "FAVORITE SIDE (FAV)" 2025 ( 3 - 2 )  +.20 units

MLB "UNDERDOG SIDE (DOG)" 2025 ( 0 - 0 )

MLB "TOTAL SCORE" 2025 ( 0 - 0 )

Money never sleeps, Bud.

Blue Horseshoe musings, also know as... "An idea popped into my head:"

Blue Horseshoe's NOON algorithm update:

Sooo, following up on observations over the last 12 hours, the card is still sending a lot of "mixed" signals, or as I like to refer to it, a DEFCON 4 situation.  However, there is a total that may provide us some value, since it's contrarian to surface logic.  The CIN/ATL first 5 inning total may have some substance.  Joe public will assume that because Schwellenbach and Lodolo both got shelled in their last outing, coupled with the fact that the CIN bullpen was absolutely abused last night for over 100 high stress pitches, layman's logic would imply then that the total posted by the book this afternoon (o8 @ -112) is a gift from the book and will proceed to hammer the over.  Take a peek at the F5 total.  My bookie is offering me o4.5 @ -105.  I see it on some online books @ -120.  

Here is some food for thought.  Both are groundball pitchers, who hold their own with K's.  Mr. Schwellenbach is an off the chart "control artist." The pressure is on ATL to notch a win tonight.  You can bet your bottom dollar that Lodolo knows that he MUST pitch an above average game because if not, there is ZERO chance that CIN wins the game.  These observations are contrarian to each pitchers recent performances, and the fact that CIN's bullpen is gassed.  The telltale sign that something is amiss is in the book's offer on the complete game total of o8 @ -110 at most reputable online books.  So basically the book is "inviting" Joe Public to "splurge" on his square logic and HAMMER the over.  But I suggest that you consider the timeless, sage wisdom, Mr. Don Corleone imparted to Sollozzo, "What have I done to deserve such generosity?"  Indeed.  

Gecko sees this angle as providing value at the present price for the F5 total.  A lean at present, and based on my style of investing, will hold my benjies till the last possible moment, maybe even an "in-game" wager.  Just thought I would put this out there for consideration, and debate, time permitting.

The evening card has a possibility of a dog opportunity, as a certain Japanese sensation is due for a MLB reality check, and his offensive support is not stroking the ball with 100% efficiency.  Stay tuned.

- G. Gecko

MLB 2025

MLB "FAVORITE SIDE (FAV)" 2025 ( 3 - 2 )  +.20 units

MLB "UNDERDOG SIDE (DOG)" 2025 ( 0 - 0 )

MLB "TOTAL SCORE" 2025 ( 0 - 0 )

Money never sleeps, Bud.

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Blue Horseshoe's Midnight Update:

Evenin' gents.  Since my occupation oftentimes will prevent me from timely sharing investment guidance within a baseball games pregame betting window, I decided to create the "Midnight Update" as a way to impart angles that my algorithm represents will give the investor a decided edge over the book.  For the couple of followers who may have bothered to read my previous posted gibberish, I think it's fair to assume at this point, that I know a thing or two about beating the house in beisbol.  No bluster. No deleting previous guidance. No silly, linear logic that "because blankity-blank is on a heater, then blankity-blank outcome is a sure thing to happen." Everything is meticulously documented so all can read and determine how to leverage the insights provided.  The beautiful thing about beisbol is that once you have a relatively reliable way to interpret the data, you then can focus on the truly difficult part of investing in sports; when to go BIG and which number/investment is the most ideal to capitalize on the information on hand. Maybe it's a player prop, maybe an F5 investment, maybe a -RL, maybe the moneyline. Maybe an in-game BOMB investment on a super juiced +1500 moneyline opportunity in the spirit of HaroonTheGreat (that dude is a serio yoda master of sports investing)   Your ability to pick the right investment is ultimately the holy grail for sports investing to be not a hobby, but rather a consistent reliable income stream.  My proposition is to share angles and provide a raison d'être, without giving away my methods.  

Case in point is the F5 Under analysis for the CIN/ATL game.  The algorithm was dead on and the angle discussed landed easy-peasy with room to spare.  Granted the square also got to eat his cake as the square "over 8 bet da house on the full game total" bet also came home, but that number was a major sweat if you watched the game, since both teams left more men stranded than the precursor events to the Battle of Dunkirk during WWII. But I digress...  Also, let's not forget that I also foreshadowed Yamamoto's meltdown and LAD's anemic offense performance against ARI's mid-tier pitcher Pfaadt.  Just another day at the office.

They say what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. Well how about if for a change, if what happens inside Vegas (cutting edge tech and analytics to bait and crush Joe Square), escapes Vegas, and allows the small guy to have a chance to wet his beak every so often.  With discipline, patience, bankroll management, and being able to know how to best leverage an angle, you can have your cake and eat it also.

Time to mine some data and see what the tea leaves share for tomorrow's slate of games.  Will post the first "Midnight Report" edition after the algorithm completes its work.

Money never sleeps, Bud.

- G. Gecko

MLB 2025

MLB "FAVORITE SIDE (FAV)" 2025 ( 3 - 2 )  +.20 units

MLB "UNDERDOG SIDE (DOG)" 2025 ( 0 - 0 )

MLB "TOTAL SCORE" 2025 ( 0 - 0 )

Money never sleeps, Bud.

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BLUE HORSESHOE'S MIDNIGHT REPORT #1:

Here we go... The inaugural "Midnight Report." 

STATUS:  DEFCON 4 (Sifting through the sewage of data)

Again, due to my occupation, more often than not, I will not have time on my hands during the pregame beisbol betting windows to share angles or the raison d'être.  So instead, I will share a "preview" of the algorithm's wee hour data vomit during my down time.  It's from this data sewage that I start the daily process of distilling a gem angle that checks off a myriad of variables that I have fine tuned over the years to reach a DEFCON 1 status that provides me the confidence to pull out my dented tin coffee can and pull out some wadded benjies to invest.

Games that I am presently analyzing in my lab are:  STL / PHI / SF / CHI / KC

The process involves regression analysis of the position players, starters and relievers expected to play and their career statistical norms.  Then an analysis of the statistical outcomes between position players and the starter over the course of their careers facing off against each other.  Knowing what data to include and exclude gets tricky, and don't use small sample sizes in the core number crunching.  Wind and park dimensions are peripheral factors, and once the home umpire is locked in, the umps statistical accuracy for the strike zone becomes a "thing" to ponder.  A few other "goodies" are explored, hence why reaching DEFCON 1 status is not a turn-key thing, and often can take me right up to start time before full confidence in the angle is set.  Mix in my occupation, and you can appreciate why it's hard to post the angles in a timely fashion.

Taking a contrarian approach is the foundation to my analysis of the data spewed out from the algorithm.  Case and point, Nola seems like the "sure bet" against lowly scrub Gavin Williams of the Guardians.  I suppose at a glance this makes sense.  But if you peel back the layers of the onion, you come to realize that for this start, Williams may just command his pitches a little better than his career norm, and if the blue behind the plate provides us some "wiggle room" the Guardians on the moneyline, or F5 moneyline, or team total, or the RL+ in game if the Guardians get down early a couple of runs, or a prop bet against one of Philly's hot right handed bats inflated stat line bet, would be the play.  See, that's the rub.  The angle is meaningless unless you can correlate it to the best line the book is providing to capitalize on the angle.  I have found often times that a prop bet delivers the best value, but the prop bet is based off of the angle the algorithm identified.  I know it does come across as complex, but in actuality it's really not.  The key is to find the angle, which will typically stem from the starting pitcher, since he has the most influence on the outcome of the first five innings of a game.

More to come, time permitting, and of course a specific angle to consider and maybe even lay some benjies because the angle reached DEFCON 1 status.

- G. Gecko

I’m hearing Fezzik is suing you for copyright infringement . What say you Blue HorseShoe ?

Got a lot to say but very few picks.

MLB 2025

MLB "FAVORITE SIDE (FAV)" 2025 ( 3 - 2 )  +.20 units

MLB "UNDERDOG SIDE (DOG)" 2025 ( 0 - 0 )

MLB "TOTAL SCORE" 2025 ( 0 - 0 )

Money never sleeps, Bud.

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DEFINITIONS:

DEFCON 4 & 5:  Angles of interest, not leans, and definitely not picks

DEFCON 3:  Angle that may become an in-game investment... No bet prior to game

DEFCON 2:  Angle that is a pre-game lean, a few bones thrown at the angle PRIOR to game

DEFCON 1:  Solid angle; Use it to find a line from the book that leverages the angle and bet that line within your budget

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Blue Horseshoe's DEFCON update:

DEFCON 4 & 5:  MIL ML / NYY ML 

DEFCON 3: WAS ML @ -103 / CHI ML @ +120 or better / CLE ML @ -101 / BOS ML @ -107 / MIL ML @ -115 / F5 u6.5 SD/COL  

DEFCON 2: Pending

DEFCON 1:  Pending

Will try to pop in later this evening, if a couple of angles I am looking at reach DEFCON 1 status, or at least DEFCON 2 status.  If not, I am playing in-game angles more than likely this evening.  My best.

- G. Gecko

I looked at the wash. game b4......your def. 3....Parker having probs. immediately thru it out. good luck

Bone said:

I looked at the wash. game b4......your def. 3....Parker having probs. immediately thru it out. good luck

Mr. Bone:  I appreciate your feedback. Am a BIG admirer of your insights in all major sports.  Your insights have caused me, on an occasion or two, to put the rubber band tightly back on my roll, on more than one occasion.  Thanks!  It's takes 'nads to lay out the thinking behind your angles, only to have some knuckle-dragger from the peanut gallery drop a "you don't know shit" bomb in your thread if the angle didn't pan out.  

Personally, I don't plan on engaging in any back and forth's with the less appreciative members of the forum.

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Regarding the WAS & Parker angle, here are some of my notes:

+Positive regression to mean flag raised by algorithm for this borderline flyball 4th SP

+Slider/changeup combo is ideal against an aggressive STL position player swing tendencies

+STL is on a 5 game heater, and SP is vanilla, so why is Vegas begging for STL money from Joe Square?

-SP needs blue to give him the "tweeners" or else...

-WAS bullpen among the worst, so SP will have to rise to the occasion; complements algorithm suggestion of positive regression

-WAS position players have put up 23 runs in last 6 games, this trend is not supported

As you can see, I had no reason to classify the WAS pick as a pre-game investment, hence why I designated it a DEFCON 3, aka an in-game watch and see... Obviously, the side was STL tonight, but Parker will positively regress to the mean within his next two starts.  Believe me you, this angle will be of high interest to me in his next start, and may just become a DEFCON 2, or Lord forbid, a DEFCON 1.

And this is the beauty of my system.  It's just as rewarding to NOT LAY DOWN AN INVESTMENT and protect my bank, than to "gamble it" like most sports gambling dweebs do.  The DEFCON system is simple, elegant, and really helps keep me grounded on when I should take pre-game risks, and when to hold my benjies, and wait for a better opportunity.

Again, I truly appreciate your patronage.  

- G. Gecko

ok. that is cool because it is ez to get caught up in betting against cards on the road .....smart to stay away. congrats. there is value on wash. certain spots but Parker was in the right spot stat wise against the cards but he has pitched like shit last 2 ...good luck forward