For what it’s worth, last night there weren’t many games that I liked, just three, and that’s sort of been a pattern for me lately. Last night, I had to bet on two bad teams, the Twins and the Royals, and although I don’t like betting on bad teams, last night their opponents (the White Sox and Rockies) were even worse. . Bad teams are just so damned unpredictable. Fortunately, both won last night.
I also dislike betting so few games. To make any substantial profit betting just 3 games, you pretty much have to sweep and that’s never easy. There’s not much margin fir error.
As mentioned above, I used just three games and five sides on my parlay card last night. I cashed with the Twins 1st 5 and full game MLs, as well as the Royals ML. I also pushed with the Royals 1st 5 ML, but lost with the Phills 1st 5 ML. any chance for that 1st 5 to cash died when Phils starter Cristopjer Sanchez had to exit after just two innings with left forearm soreness.
I finished +0.95 units for the day, leaving me -34.85 units for this still young season. I’ve got a long road ahead of me, but it’s still only April so I’ve got plenty of time to turn it around.
Here is my Wednesday card.
|
MLParlays
|
Team
|
Team 2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
155
|
2
|
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
MINN ML
|
147
|
2
|
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
179
|
2
|
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
KC ML
|
165
|
2
|
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
MINN ML
|
104
|
2
|
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
131
|
2
|
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
KC ML
|
120
|
2
|
|
|
MINN ML
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
123
|
2
|
|
|
MINN ML
|
KC ML
|
113
|
2
|
|
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
KC ML
|
144
|
2
|
Here are my thoughts on those games.
PHIL @ NYM
Francisco Lindor had three hits, including an RBI single, as the 17-7 Mets beat the 13-11Phils 5-1 last night to take a 2-0 series lead. As mentioned above, Phils starter Cristopher Sánchez was pulled with left forearm soreness after just two innings. The team said Sánchez will be evaluated today. It was the Mets second six-game winning streak this season.
Starting Pitchers
|
1:10
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
PHIL
|
Wheeler - R
|
|
(3/5)
|
(2/5)
|
0/99
|
3.73
|
2.32
|
3.17
|
2.52
|
2.40
|
0.288
|
0.251
|
33.6%
|
5.9%
|
|
NYM
|
Peterson - L
|
|
(2/4)
|
(1/4)
|
1.36
|
3.27
|
3.57
|
3.08
|
2.69
|
3.04
|
0.328
|
0.309
|
27.7%
|
8.5%
|
Edge – PHIL
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
PHIL
|
6
|
3
|
7
|
6
|
14
|
0.67
|
27
|
1.53
|
25
|
5.80
|
29
|
0.279
|
30
|
66.9%
|
23
|
21.9%
|
18
|
8.8%
|
11
|
|
NYM
|
5
|
1
|
8
|
2
|
21
|
0.31
|
3
|
1.02
|
3
|
2.59
|
3
|
0.196
|
6
|
76.7%
|
5
|
26.5%
|
7
|
7.8%
|
6
|
Edge NYM big
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
BABIP
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
PHIL
|
4.50
|
11
|
0.326
|
5
|
106
|
12
|
0.140
|
19
|
0.251
|
8
|
0.306
|
7
|
11.3%
|
1
|
0.9
|
10
|
21.6%
|
11
|
|
NYM
|
4.21
|
18
|
0.311
|
19
|
101
|
16
|
0.170
|
10
|
0.231
|
18
|
0.265
|
21
|
8.7%
|
19
|
3.6
|
3
|
20.0%
|
5
|
Edge – PHIL
Conclusion: I still don’t know who the better team is here, but the Mets do hold a 2-0 series lead and will be looking for the sweep tonight. I don’t trust the Phils bullpen and giving up 4 runs on 5 hits and 4 walks last night over the final 6 innings makes me trust that unit even less. Both teams can hit. Last night the early departure of Christpher Sanchez pretty much killed my 1st 5 bet. Tonight, I’m betting on Zach Wheeler. Wheeler is an elite starting pitcher and his stat profile is clearly better than David Peterson’s. The Phils should also be very motivated to avoid getting swept by their NL East rivals. I think that the Phils could actually win this game, but I can;;t bring myself to bet on that bullpen.
Pick – PHIL 1st 5 ML
CHI WS @ MINN
Bailey Ober worked six strong innings giving up just 1 run to win his second straight start, Trevor Larnach hit a two-run HR and Byron Buxton made a game-saving diving catch to end the game after the 5-18 White Sox loaded the bases in the 9th to seal the 8-15 Twins 4-2 win over the White Sox last night in the first game of this series.
Starting Pitchers
|
7:40
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
CHI WS
|
Wilson - R
|
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
1.58
|
4.50
|
6.38
|
6.78
|
4.49
|
4.29
|
0.427
|
0.397
|
15.1%
|
5.7%
|
|
MINN
|
Festa - R
|
|
(2/2)
|
(2/2)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edge – MINN
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
CHI WS
|
2
|
7
|
0
|
2
|
8
|
0.49
|
16
|
1.35
|
18
|
4.28
|
19
|
0.231
|
14
|
76.7%
|
5
|
23.5%
|
13
|
11.0%
|
22
|
|
MINN
|
3
|
8
|
2
|
5
|
97
|
0.46
|
10
|
1.18
|
14
|
3.69
|
14
|
0.220
|
19
|
70.0%
|
18
|
22.7%
|
16
|
8.0%
|
8
|
Edge –MINN
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
BABIP
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
CHI WS
|
3.13
|
29
|
0.261
|
30
|
68
|
28
|
0.109
|
28
|
0.196
|
30
|
0.239
|
30
|
8.7%
|
19
|
-0.5
|
19
|
23.6%
|
20
|
|
MINN
|
3.43
|
26
|
0.279
|
27
|
82
|
26
|
0.127
|
25
|
0.211
|
27
|
0.259
|
26
|
7.4%
|
28
|
2.7
|
6
|
22.8%
|
16
|
Edge - MINN
Conclusion: The stats say that the Twins are across the board better than the White Sox, who may be the worst team in the league. Although the data that we have on these two starting pitchers is very limited, it also says that David Festa should be better than Bryse Wilson. Festa has only started two games for the Twins, but both v the Tigers and Mets graded as above average. Festa has given up a total of just 1 run (unearned) on 8 hits and 2 walks over 9 innings with 10 Ks. By contrast,Bryse Wilson, working exclusively out of the White Sox bullpen, has given up 6 runs on 16 hits and 3 walks over 12 innings with 8 Ks.
I’m fading the White Sox again tonight.
Pick – MINN – 1st 5 and full game MLs
COL @ KC
Freddy Fermin hit a game-winning single in the bottom of the 11th as the 10-14 Royals rebounded, after blowing a two-run, lead in the top of the 9th, to beat the 4-18 Rockies last night.
Starting Pitchers
|
7:40
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
COL
|
Marquez - R
|
|
(1/4)
|
(3/4)
|
1.84
|
8.27
|
5.01
|
4.94
|
4.94
|
6.08
|
0.408
|
0.359
|
14.3%
|
10.4%
|
|
KC
|
Lorenzen - R
|
|
)1/4)
|
(3/4)
|
1.43
|
4.57
|
4.30
|
3.64
|
4.11
|
4.26
|
0.318
|
0.336
|
27.7%
|
7.3%
|
Edge – KC
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
COL
|
2
|
5
|
3
|
5
|
8
|
0.56
|
21
|
1.45
|
23
|
4.16
|
18
|
0.231
|
14
|
72.4%
|
13
|
19.7%
|
25
|
13.9%
|
30
|
|
KC
|
5
|
3
|
6
|
4
|
10
|
0.47
|
12
|
1.35
|
18
|
3.63
|
12
|
0.238
|
12
|
74.3%
|
11
|
21.3%
|
19
|
10.8%
|
20
|
Edge - KC
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
BABIP
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
COL
|
3.23
|
28
|
0.285
|
25
|
67
|
29
|
0.133
|
23
|
0.218
|
26
|
0.303
|
9
|
7.7%
|
26
|
0.2
|
14
|
30.4%
|
30
|
|
KC
|
2.96
|
30
|
0.263
|
29
|
66
|
30
|
0.094
|
30
|
0.210
|
28
|
0.259
|
26
|
7.7%
|
26
|
-1.5
|
25
|
21.3%
|
10
|
Edge – None
Conclusion: Neither of these teams has hit worth crap this season, but while the Rockies have the slightly better overall offensive stats, when you factor in home/road splits, it’s the Royals who have the slightly better offensive stats, averaging 3.27 runs per game at home, while the Rockies are averaging a dismal 2.00 runs per game away from hitter-friendly Coors. The Royals also have the better pen and the better starting pitcher, if only by default. Michael Lorenzen is no prize, but almost without exception, he has pitched better than German Marquez has this season and that’s what their respective stat profiles tell us. For me, the definitive stat is that the Rockies are now just 1-12 away from Coors this season, after going 24-57 on the road last season.
I’m fading the Rockies away from Coors every chance I get and that includes tonight.