For what it’s worth, other than one great day a few weeks ago, I’ve spent most of this season wallowing in shit.
Yesterday, I used four games and seven sides on my parlay card/ I cashed with the Phil 1st 5 and full game MLs and the Mets full game ML, but lost with the Padres ML and the Giants 1st 5 and a full games ML. I also pushed with the Mets 1st 5 ML.
I also lost two side bets on the Diamondbacks, a 1st 6 ML and a full game ML bet
I finished -23.18 units for the day, leaving me -29.85 units for this still young season. It’s my worst start in a long time and it pisses me off!
Here is my Saturday card.
|
MLParlays
|
Team
|
Team 2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
PHIL ML
|
123
|
2
|
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
PITT 1st 5 ML
|
130
|
2
|
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
NYM 1st 5 ML
|
152
|
2
|
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
NYM ML
|
141
|
2
|
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
BOS 1st 5 ML
|
102
|
2
|
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
BOS ML
|
100
|
2
|
|
|
PHIL ML
|
PITT 1st 5 ML
|
125
|
2
|
|
|
PHIL ML
|
NYM 1st 5 ML
|
134
|
2
|
|
|
PHIL ML
|
NYM ML
|
135
|
2
|
|
|
PHIL ML
|
BOS 1st 5 ML
|
-103
|
2
|
|
|
PHIL ML
|
NYM ML
|
-105
|
2
|
|
|
PITT 1st 5 ML
|
NYM 1st 5 ML
|
142
|
2
|
|
|
PITT 1st 5 ML
|
NYM ML
|
143
|
2
|
|
|
PITT 1st 5 ML
|
BOS 1st 5 ML
|
104
|
2
|
|
|
PITT 1st 5 ML
|
BOS ML
|
101
|
2
|
|
|
NYM 1st 5 ML
|
NYM ML
|
153
|
2
|
|
|
NYM 1st 5 ML
|
BOS 1st 5 ML
|
112
|
2
|
|
|
NYM 1st 5 ML
|
BOS ML
|
110
|
2
|
|
|
NYM ML
|
BOS 1st 5 ML
|
113
|
2
|
|
|
NYM ML
|
BOS ML
|
110
|
2
|
|
|
BOS 1st 5
|
BOS ML
|
30-Jan
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sidss
|
ARIZ ML
|
|
-107
|
2
|
|
|
CIN 1st 5 ML
|
|
-135
|
2
|
|
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
|
-115
|
|
|
|
SD ML
|
|
-125
|
2
|
Here are my thoughts on the afternoon games. I’ll post my thoughts about the two evening games later.
MIA @ PHIL
Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber each homered, and Zack Wheeler was his usual dominant self, giving up just two runs and striking out 13 over seven innings as the 12-9 Phils beat the 8-11 Marlins 7-2 last night in the first game of this series.
Starting Pitchers
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
,423
|
0.406
|
13.1%
|
9.8%
|
|
0.317
|
0.303
|
21.2%
|
7.6%
|
Edge – PHIL big
Bullpens
|
TEAM
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
MIA
|
4
|
3
|
2
|
2
|
13
|
0.59
|
25
|
1.47
|
25
|
4.50
|
24
|
70.7%
|
20
|
17.7%
|
30
|
13.7%
|
29
|
|
PHIL
|
5
|
2
|
6
|
5
|
14
|
0.55
|
21
|
1.44
|
24
|
4.83
|
26
|
71.2%
|
16
|
23.7%
|
16
|
9.5%
|
13
|
Edge – PHIL, but close
Offenses
|
TEAM
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
w/RISP
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
MIA
|
4.05
|
19
|
4.00
|
22
|
0.312
|
14
|
97
|
17
|
0.118
|
25
|
0.255
|
6
|
9.0%
|
18
|
0.0
|
15
|
25.0%
|
25
|
|
PHIL
|
4.35
|
14056
|
4.05
|
25
|
0.317
|
11
|
103
|
14
|
0.141
|
19
|
0.238
|
12
|
11.9%
|
1
|
-0.8
|
21
|
22.2%
|
13
|
Edge – PHIL, but surprisingly close
Conclusion: These two offenses look closer than I expected, but I don’t think that will las. The Phils are a clearly better hitting team than the Marlins. The same can be said of these two bullpens, there’s simply not much difference in how they’ve performed. I can’t give either pen an edge. As for the two starting pitchers, that’s easy. Quantrill is garbage ans Walker is not
The Phils should be the better team with the better starting pitcher.
Pick – PHIL 1st 5 and full game MLs
ARIZ @ CHI C
Carson Kelly homered twice, Ian Happ hit a grand slam. Seiya Suzuki went deep and Kyle Tucker hit a go-ahead two-run homer in a six-run 8th, as the 13-9 Cubs pulled out a wild win after the 12-8 Diamondbacks scored 10 runs in the top of the 8th to take an 11-7 lead as the Cubs outslugged the Dbacks 13-11 on Friday.
Starting Pitchers
|
2:20
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
ARIZ
|
Gallen - R
|
|
(2/4)
|
(2/4)
|
1.41
|
4.64
|
4.47
|
4.26
|
4.19
|
4.02
|
0.321
|
0.343
|
25.3%
|
11.6%
|
|
CHI C
|
Brown - R
|
|
(1/3)
|
(2/3)
|
1.75
|
5.09
|
4.20
|
3.90
|
3.65
|
3.87
|
0.36
|
0.334
|
23.8%
|
10.7%
|
Edge – ARIZ slight
Bullpens
|
TEAM
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
ARIZ
|
4
|
1
|
6
|
10
|
11
|
0.39
|
6
|
0.97
|
2
|
3.48
|
13
|
68.4%
|
23
|
27.6%
|
5
|
6.1%
|
2
|
|
CHI C
|
4
|
4
|
6
|
5
|
4
|
0.57
|
23
|
1.34
|
20
|
4.48
|
23
|
74.9%
|
9
|
23.4%
|
18
|
10.1%
|
17
|
Edge – ARIZ
Offenses
|
TEAM
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
w/RISP
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
ARIZ
|
5.75
|
2
|
3.74
|
19
|
0.349
|
2
|
123
|
2
|
####
|
3
|
0.254
|
8
|
11.8%
|
2
|
2.2
|
5
|
19.0%
|
4
|
|
CHI C
|
6.12
|
1
|
4.52
|
30
|
0.340
|
3
|
121
|
4
|
####
|
7
|
0.255
|
6
|
10.6%
|
4
|
3.5
|
2
|
20.2%
|
7
|
ARIZ, but vey close
Conclusion: These are two very good teams. Both hit well and proved it yesterday. but while the Cubs are averaging more runs per game so far this season, it is the Diamondbacks who hold the edge in all the other offensive stats. The Dbacks are su[[osed to have the better pen, but both looked like total shit yesterday. That brings us to the two starting pitchers aond on paper they look very similar, but Gallen has a track record qnd Brown doesn’t
Pick – ARIZ ML
CIN @ BALT
Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain each hit three-run homers as the 10-10 Reds notched an 8-3 win over the 8-11 Orioles at Camden n last night.
Starting Pitchers
|
4:05
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
CIN
|
Greene - R
|
|
(4/4)
|
(0/4)
|
0.58
|
0.98
|
2.47
|
1.66
|
3.22
|
2.80
|
1.670
|
0.260
|
31.3%
|
4.0%
|
|
BALT
|
Young - R
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edge – CIN
Bullpens – NA, this is a 1st 5 bet only
Offenses
|
TEAM
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
HR
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
CIN
|
4.40
|
13
|
0.282
|
24
|
74
|
26
|
0.123
|
23
|
0.213
|
27
|
17
|
|
8.4%
|
23
|
-2.5
|
30
|
23.8%
|
21
|
|
BALT
|
4.58
|
9
|
0.312
|
14
|
107
|
12
|
0.169
|
8
|
0.234
|
15
|
23
|
|
8.0%
|
25
|
-0.7
|
20
|
22.4%
|
14
|
Conclusion: This is all all about Hunter Greene who’s n tremendous’
Pick – CIN 1st 5 ML
CLEV @ PITT
Bo Naylor had a solo HR, a two-run double and a single and Luis L. Ortiz pitched five solid innings as the Guardians outlasted the Pirates 10-7 last night.
Starting Pitchers
|
4:05
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
CLEV
|
Lively - R
|
|
(1/4)
|
(3/4)
|
1.33
|
4.87
|
4.36
|
4.41
|
4.49
|
4.46
|
0.339
|
0.338
|
19.8%
|
8.6%
|
|
PITT
|
Skenes - R
|
|
(4/4)
|
(0/4)
|
0.74
|
2.96
|
1.49
|
1.39
|
2.28
|
2.29
|
0.194
|
0.200
|
28.0%
|
3.2%
|
Edge – PITT big
Bullpens – NA, this is a 1s 5 bet only
Offenses
|
TEAM
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
HR
|
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
PITT
|
3.52
|
15
|
0.265
|
28
|
66
|
27
|
0.105
|
27
|
0.197
|
29
|
13
|
|
9.8%
|
8
|
-2.0
|
28
|
24.7%
|
24
|
|
CLEV
|
5.11
|
17
|
0.302
|
19
|
99
|
16
|
0.152
|
11
|
0.228
|
18
|
22
|
|
9.3%
|
13
|
-2.2
|
29
|
22.1%
|
12
|
Edge – CLEV
Conclusion: I’vwe been riding Skenes all season. He’s special
Pick – PITT 1st 5 ML
STL @ NYM
Francisco Lindor homered off Cards reliever Ryan Fernandez leading off the 9th, and the 1307 Mets survived a late blown lead to beat the 9-11 Cards 5-4 last night.
Starting Putchers
|
4:05
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
STL
|
Liberatore - L
|
|
(2/3)
|
(1/3)
|
0.98
|
3.93
|
3.37
|
1.91
|
2.61
|
2.81
|
0.257
|
0.302
|
25.4%
|
1.4%
|
|
NYM
|
Senga - R
|
|
(2/3)
|
(0/3)
|
1.00
|
1.06
|
2.70
|
2.76
|
3.44
|
3.49
|
0.254
|
0.273
|
24.6%
|
7.7%
|
Edge – NYM
Bullpens
|
TEAM
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
STL
|
1
|
5
|
5
|
4
|
12
|
0.58
|
24
|
1.30
|
17
|
4.18
|
20
|
59.5%
|
29
|
19.1%
|
26
|
9.9%
|
16
|
|
NYM
|
4
|
1
|
6
|
1
|
16
|
0.26
|
2
|
1.01
|
3
|
2.09
|
3
|
79.9%
|
4
|
26.1%
|
8
|
7.9%
|
6
|
Edge – NYM big
Offenses
|
TEAM
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
w/RISP
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BABIP
|
Rk
|
|
STL
|
5.95
|
5
|
4.21
|
28
|
0.335
|
6
|
117
|
8
|
0.147
|
16
|
0.272
|
2
|
8.9%
|
20
|
-0.6
|
19
|
20.1%
|
6
|
0.323
|
2
|
|
NYM
|
4.05
|
21
|
3.68
|
17
|
0.300
|
21
|
96
|
19
|
0.154
|
10
|
0.221
|
22
|
9.1%
|
16
|
1.5
|
8
|
20.0%
|
5
|
0.257
|
26
|
Edge STL
Conclusion: So far this season the Cards have been the better hitting team. However, that shouldn’t last. Right now, t he Merts bullpen is performing at an elite level while the Cards pen is struggling. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and the Mets should have an edge there Kodai Senga facing Matt Liberatore.
Simply based on talent alone, the Mets should be the better team.
Pick – NYM 1st 5 and full game MLs
CHI WS @ BOS
Trevor Story went 3 for 4 with two HRs and six RBIs, and Hunter Dobbins pitched six strong innings, as the 11-10 Red Sox beat up on the 4-15 White Sox 10-3 last night.
Starting Pitchers
|
4:10
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
CHI S
|
Smith – R
|
|
(3/3)
|
(0/3)
|
0.91
|
2.04
|
3.90
|
3.00
|
4.22
|
3.45
|
0.206
|
,323
|
17.6%
|
10.3%
|
|
Bos
|
Crochet 0 L
|
|
(3/4)
|
(1/4)
|
0.88
|
1.38
|
2.83
|
2.27
|
3.20
|
3.18
|
0.207
|
0.278
|
35.1%
|
5.5%
|
Edge – BOS
Bullpens
|
TEAM
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
CHH WS
|
1
|
6
|
0
|
2
|
7
|
0.50
|
18
|
1.65
|
28
|
4.92
|
27
|
70.8%
|
19
|
18.0%
|
29
|
12.7%
|
26
|
|
BOS
|
5
|
2
|
7
|
3
|
5
|
0.54
|
20
|
1.21
|
14
|
3.96
|
19
|
60.9%
|
27
|
23.8%
|
15
|
6.5%
|
3
|
Edge – BOS
Offenses
|
TEAM
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
HR
|
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
CHI WS
|
3.00
|
28
|
0.258
|
30
|
66
|
27
|
0.100
|
29
|
0.196
|
30
|
12
|
|
9.1%
|
16
|
-1.2
|
25
|
23.5%
|
20
|
|
BOS
|
4.67
|
10
|
0.310
|
17
|
97
|
17
|
0.134
|
21
|
0.247
|
10
|
17
|
|
9.2%
|
14
|
1.8
|
6
|
25.5%
|
27
|
Conclusion: In Garreett Crochjet I trust.
Pick – BOS – 1st 5 and full game ML