For what it’s worth, yesterday ended up being a veery nice bounce back day for me.
I used four games and six sides on my parlay card. I won five sides, the Pirates 1st 5 ML, the Tigers 1st 5 and full game MLs, and the Dodgers 1st 5 and full game MLs. I lost just one, the Padres 1st 5 ML. I also lost my one side bet on the Royals 1st 5 ML.
I finished +13.27 units for the day, leaving me +13.05 units for this season.
Here is my Tuesday card.
Here are my thoughts on these games.
ARIZ @ MIA
The 9-7 Diamondbacks had yesterday off after taking 2 of 3 from the visiting Brewers over the weekend. The surprising 8-7 Marlins also had yesterday off after taking 2 o 3 from the visiting Nats.
Starting Pitchers
|
6:40
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
ARIZ
|
Kelly - R
|
|
(2/3)
|
(1/3)
|
1.60
|
7.20
|
7.50
|
6.67
|
6.45
|
6.13
|
0.377
|
0.326
|
10.0%
|
1.3%
|
|
MIA
|
Gillispie - R
|
|
(1/3)
|
(2/3)
|
1.14
|
3.86
|
3.66
|
4.22
|
4.40
|
4.20
|
0.295
|
0.315
|
20.0%
|
8.3%
|
Edge – MIA
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
ARIZ
|
4
|
0
|
5
|
0
|
6
|
0.37
|
6
|
0.84
|
1
|
3.29
|
9
|
67.6%
|
20
|
27.6%
|
4
|
4.7%
|
1
|
|
MIA
|
4
|
5
|
2
|
2
|
13
|
0.61
|
23
|
1.48
|
24
|
4.50
|
25
|
67.3%
|
22
|
15.6%
|
30
|
13.5%
|
27
|
Edge – ARIZ
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
RK
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
ARIZ
|
5.12
|
4
|
0.345
|
3
|
121
|
5
|
0.180
|
6
|
0.256
|
6
|
11.7%
|
1
|
0.1
|
14
|
17.1%
|
1
|
|
MIA
|
4.33
|
14
|
0.314
|
13
|
99
|
17
|
0.122
|
23
|
0.253
|
8
|
9.3%
|
15
|
0.7
|
11
|
23.8%
|
20
|
Edge – ARIZ
Conclusion: The Diamondbacks are the clearly better hitting team here and they have the better bullpen. As for these two starting pitchers, their stat profiles are both downright ugly. I don’t trust either one for even 5 innings, so I’ll simply bet on the better team to just win the game and that’s the Dbacks.
Pick – ARIZ ML
SF @ PHIL
Willy Adames and Mike Yastrzemski homered, and Tyler Fitzgerald also homered, doubled and tripled to lead the 12-4 Giant to a 10-4 rout of the 9-7 Phils in Philly last night.
Starting Pitchers
|
6:45
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
SF
|
Verlander - R
|
|
(0/3)
|
(3/3)
|
1.69
|
6.92
|
3.87
|
3.92
|
3.68
|
3.82
|
0.356
|
0.434
|
25.8%
|
9.7%
|
|
PHIL
|
Luzardo - L
|
|
(3/3)
|
(0/4)
|
1.00
|
1.50
|
2.56
|
1.78
|
2.41
|
2.28
|
0.259
|
0.265
|
36.0%
|
7.2%
|
Edge – MIA
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
SF
|
5
|
2
|
6
|
2
|
13
|
0.28
|
3
|
1.05
|
6
|
1.82
|
2
|
83.0%
|
3
|
23.5%
|
16
|
8.6%
|
9
|
|
PHIL
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
5
|
11
|
0.50
|
15
|
1.40
|
23
|
4.27
|
20
|
74.7%
|
10
|
23.9%
|
15
|
9.5%
|
14
|
Edge – SF
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
RK
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
SF
|
5.31
|
6
|
0.312
|
16
|
102
|
15
|
0.184
|
4
|
0.220
|
20
|
9.9%
|
10
|
3.3
|
2
|
25.3%
|
26
|
|
PHIL
|
4.00
|
18
|
0.313
|
14
|
101
|
16
|
0.135
|
19
|
0.237
|
13
|
11.5%
|
2
|
-0.6
|
20
|
21.9%
|
11
|
Edge – NONE
Conclusion: What’s wrong with the Phils? The current stats say that the Giants are the better hitting team so far, but I’m not buying it. The Phils have too much talent to continue to hit this badly. They will hit. If the Phils have a weakness, it looks like their bullpen. It’s been shaky all season long and has already cost them a few games. By contrast, the Giants’ pen has been rock solid so far. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and I’m sad to say this, but it sure looks like a mismatch. Considering his spectacular career, it seems like blasphemy to speak ill of Justin Verlander, but at 42 the truth is that Verlander’s just about done. There’s just not much left in the tank anymore. Jesus Luzardo, on the other hand, if off to a fine start after signing with the Phils in the offseason. His stat profile is excellent and comes with that 26% K rate. It pains me to do this, but…
Pick – PHIL 1st 5 ML
KC @ NYY
Trent Grisham, Ben Rice and Austin Wells each hit solo HRs off Seth Lugo in the bottom of the 5th to break a 1-1 tie, as the 8-7 Yankees beat the visiting 8-9 Royals 4-1 last night.
Starting Pitchers
|
7:05
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
KC
|
Wacha - R
|
|
(1/3)
|
(1/3)
|
1.40
|
4.20
|
5.21
|
4.00
|
5.14
|
5.13
|
0.328
|
0.268
|
17.5%
|
12.7%
|
|
NYY
|
Fried – L
|
|
(2/3)
|
(1/3)
|
1.21
|
1.56
|
2.87
|
2.19
|
2.76
|
2.66
|
0.287
|
0.281
|
26.9%
|
3.8%
|
Edge – NYY
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
KC
|
3
|
2
|
6
|
2
|
9
|
0.52
|
18
|
1.32
|
17
|
3.78
|
14
|
71.9%
|
15
|
20.9%
|
20
|
10.9%
|
19
|
|
NYY
|
3
|
1
|
3
|
1
|
8
|
0.49
|
14
|
1.28
|
15
|
3.75
|
13
|
69.1%
|
18
|
31.6%
|
1
|
15.4%
|
30
|
Edge – NYY
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
RK
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
KC
|
3.25
|
27
|
0.272
|
27
|
72
|
26
|
0.100
|
29
|
0.219
|
21
|
7.3%
|
26
|
-0.3
|
17
|
21.7%
|
9
|
|
NYY
|
5.33
|
2
|
0.363
|
1
|
140
|
1
|
0.230
|
1
|
0.259
|
5
|
9.8%
|
11
|
-0.5
|
19
|
25.0%
|
25
|
Edge – NYY
Conclusion: The Yankees have all the edges in this one. They hit better than the Royals with a hell of a lot more power. Their bullpen has been the better unit and they have a significant edge in the starting pitching matchup. Michael Wacha’s stat profile leaves a lot to be desired, while Max Fried looks like the only pitcher holding this Yanks’ rotation together. He’s pitched every bit as well as advertised.
Pick – NYY `1st 5 and full game MLs
DET @ MIL
Tarik Skubal, the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, was tremendous, giving up four hits and no walks over seven shutout innings and striking out nine as the 10-6 Tigers trounced the Brewers 9-1 last night.
Starting Pitchers
|
7:40
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
DET
|
Flaherty R
|
|
(3/3)
|
(0/3)
|
0.95
|
1.62
|
3.43
|
2.70
|
3.21
|
3.10
|
0.243
|
0.306
|
31.9%
|
10.6%
|
|
MIL
|
Priester - R
|
|
(1/1)
|
(0/1)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edge – DET big
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
DET
|
3
|
3
|
4
|
1
|
3
|
0.50
|
15
|
0.99
|
4
|
3.91
|
16
|
68.5%
|
19
|
20.9%
|
20
|
5.8%
|
3
|
|
MIL
|
3
|
4
|
2
|
2
|
10
|
0.82
|
30
|
1.59
|
26
|
6.28
|
28
|
56.5%
|
29
|
21.7%
|
19
|
11.7%
|
20
|
Edge – DET
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
RK
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
DET
|
5.00
|
6
|
0.331
|
6
|
118
|
7
|
0.168
|
7
|
0.249
|
10
|
9.7%
|
14
|
0.2
|
13
|
25.7%
|
28
|
|
MIL
|
4.82
|
9
|
0.307
|
17
|
96
|
20
|
0.143
|
17
|
0.236
|
15
|
8.7%
|
21
|
1.2
|
10
|
22.7%
|
14
|
Edge – DET
Conclusion: This Tiger team is starting to grow on me. Their offense has the better statistical profile. The Tigers also have the clearly better bullpen. Look no further than that 5-run 9th inning meltdown by the Brewers’ pen in a 5-4 loss to the Dbacks on Saturday night. Then there’s the starting pitching mismatch, Jack Flaherty v the eminently forgettable Quinn Priester. Flaherty has pitcher really well for the Tigers, while Quinn Priester has just one start (5 innings) on his 2025 resume. He only gave I up run in that start at the Royals, but 6 hits and 2 walks. That’s 8 baserunners in 5 innings. I’d say Priester may have benefited from some good luck. A career 1.56 WHIP and 6.02 ERA over 104 MLB innings says the same thing to me. I want no part of Priester. Give me the better starting pitcher and the better team.
Pick – DET 1st 5 and full game ML
HOU @ STL
Nolan Arenado homered and Brendan Donovan went 4 for 4, while Sonny Gray tossed seven scoreless innings, giving up just 3 hits and one walk and striking out four as the 8-8 Cards beat the 7-9 Astros 8-3 last night.
Starting Pitchers
|
7:45
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
HOU
|
Brown – R
|
|
(3/3)
|
(0/3)
|
0.78
|
2.00
|
3.17
|
2.25
|
2.58
|
3.65
|
0.231
|
0.292
|
27.7%
|
4.6%
|
|
STL
|
Fedde – R
|
|
(2/3)
|
(1/3)
|
1.00
|
4.20
|
4.78
|
5.70
|
5.99
|
6.62
|
0.264
|
0.352
|
8.8%
|
14.0%
|
Edge – HOU
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
HOU
|
2
|
2
|
4
|
3
|
10
|
0.39
|
7
|
1.19
|
9
|
3.30
|
10
|
74.9%
|
9
|
31.1%
|
2
|
10.2%
|
16
|
|
STL
|
1
|
3
|
4
|
3
|
9
|
0.62
|
24
|
1.35
|
21
|
4.35
|
22
|
56.4%
|
30
|
19.7%
|
23
|
10.4%
|
17
|
Edge – HOU
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
RK
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
HOU
|
4.00
|
18
|
0.285
|
23
|
87
|
23
|
0.101
|
27
|
0.219
|
21
|
10.5%
|
5
|
2.0
|
4
|
22.9%
|
15
|
|
STL
|
5.47
|
3
|
0.345
|
3
|
124
|
3
|
0.155
|
10
|
0.280
|
2
|
9.0%
|
17
|
-2.0
|
29
|
20.6%
|
7
|
Edge – STL
Conclusion: This is a tough call. If I’m right, the Cards are playing way over their heads and it won’t last. I’m still not a believer, but I don’t believe in the Astros these days either. They’ve just lost too much over recent seasons and it’s finally catching up with them. The Cards are hitting much better that the Astros so far. The Astros still appear to have the better bullpen, but this bet is all about the two starting pitchers. Hunter Brown is coming off a fine 2024 and he’s off to a great start this season, with 3 above average starts, a WHIP of under 1.00, an ERA of 2.00, solid ERA metrics an almost 28% K rate and a low walk rate. Erick Fedde’s been OK for the Cards, but his ERA is mediocre and his ERA metrics are all over a half a run higher than that mediocre ERA. Then there’s that very high 14% walk rate, which will catch up to him if it continues.
I don’t trust the Astros anymore, but I’ll take Brown over Fedde any day.
Pick – HOU 1st 5 M\L
CHI C @ SD
Fernando Tatis Jr. homered twice and scored the go-ahead run on a wild pitch as the 14-3 Padres improved to 11-0 at home by beating the visiting Cubs 10-4 last night.
Starting Pitchers
|
9:40
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
CHI C
|
Imanaga - L
|
|
(3/4)
|
(1/4)
|
0.90
|
2.70
|
4.48
|
4.40
|
4.97
|
4.97
|
0.255
|
0.342
|
15.4%
|
7.7%
|
|
SD
|
Vasquez - R
|
|
(2/3)
|
(1/3)
|
1.21
|
1.72
|
6.38
|
4.56
|
6.32
|
7.24
|
0.242
|
0.397
|
9.7%
|
19.4%
|
Edge – CHI C
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
CHI C
|
2
|
2
|
5
|
4
|
12
|
0.51
|
17
|
1.57
|
25
|
4.28
|
21
|
72.5%
|
13
|
18.8%
|
25
|
10.7%
|
18
|
|
SD
|
4
|
0
|
8
|
0
|
14
|
0.17
|
1
|
0.91
|
2
|
1.51
|
1
|
94.0%
|
1
|
28.0%
|
3
|
9.5%
|
14
|
Edge – SD
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
RK
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
CHI C
|
6.32
|
1
|
0.348
|
2
|
127
|
2
|
0.183
|
5
|
0.256
|
6
|
11.4%
|
3
|
3.4
|
1
|
19.9%
|
6
|
|
SD
|
4.88
|
8
|
0.341
|
5
|
123
|
4
|
0.140
|
18
|
0.283
|
1
|
8.8%
|
20
|
0.3
|
12
|
17.5%
|
2
|
Edge – CHI C
Conclusion: The Padres are a very good hitting team and they proved it last night, but so far this season the Cubs have been even better and that’s scary. However, the Padres have the clearly better pen and that point was made abundantly clear last night as well. However, the starting pitching matchup of Shota Imanaga v Randy Vasquez looks pretty lopsided. Iamaga is coming off a fine 2024 and has seemingly picked up right where he left off. I
I never cared for Randy Vasquez. His WHIP and ERA both look solid, but his ERA metrics are all at least 2 runs higher than his ERA. That’s a staggering difference. Something’s fishy about that. Now factor in a lousy K rate and I see that WHIP and ERA climbing rapidly.
These are two very good teams, but the Cubs should have a big starting pitcher advantage with Imanaga.
Pick – CHI C 1st 5 ML