? The Inside Pitch Ep. 3 – Extended Summary

This episode offers an in-depth conversation between Scott Seidenberg and former MLB pitcher Josh Towers, merging gambling trends, advanced metrics, clubhouse culture, and raw mental health disclosures into a full-circle breakdown of baseball’s modern challenges and strategies.

Betting Systems and Sweep Avoidance

Statistical Summary:

• Favorites avoiding 3-game sweeps: 10-4 (profit +$485)

• Home teams avoiding 3-game sweeps: 8-2 (profit +$565)

• Underdogs: 6-10 (loss -$201)

• Overall sweep avoidance (all types): 16-15 (profit +$179)

• Home teams in Game 4 of 4-game series: 9-0 so far in 2025

Scott emphasizes betting on final games of series — Wednesdays, Thursdays, Sundays — citing how teams bounce back from near-sweeps. Josh notes these reflect manager decisions, psychological adjustments, and line-up reshuffling.

? "You're going to push your best lineup every single day because you have to end that streak." – Josh Towers

Managerial Psychology and Bullpen Strategy

Josh explains how managers often “concede” games mid-inning. He provides a telling example:

• In a Twins game, Rocco Baldelli let Simeon Woods Richardson continue pitching while down 4-1, signaling the team had “accepted the loss.”

• Contrastingly, in a close 2-1 game, Baldelli pulled him early, turning to elite relievers.

Josh criticizes this inconsistency:

? "Three or four runs in MLB is nothing. Why concede?"

He also calls out the Dodgers for similar behavior — down 2-0, they gave up 16 runs due to using weak bullpen arms instead of trying to stay in the game.

 Live Betting Strategy

Scott proposes a smarter tactic:

• Instead of betting the moneyline on a comeback, bet the over on live totals when a team is slightly behind.

• Benefits:

  • Accounts for extra innings

  • Accounts for opponent scoring

  • Offers better odds

Case example:

• Dodgers down 2-1 → Scott bet over 6.5 runs → score ended 4-2, but Pete Crow-Armstrong was stranded on 3rd with no outs. Loss despite being “one swing away.”

? “With a runner on 3rd, 0 outs, you expect 1.43 runs. They got 0.” – Scott Seidenberg

? Loss of Situational Baseball

Discussion pivots to lost tactics like:

• Bunting runners over

• Creating infield holes with base runners

• Hit and run

They cite a Red Sox game where a runner is thrown out stealing, only for Devers to hit a single next pitch. That mistake cost them a win.

Josh reflects:

? “The game’s too close. You must create every advantage.”

 Mental Health in Baseball

A powerful segment highlights:

• Jarren Duran’s suicide admission (from Netflix series)

• Drew Robinson’s attempted suicide and recovery

Josh, reflecting on the pressure of call-ups and short leashes in the minors:

? “I could write a book on why players don’t make the big leagues — not one chapter would be about talent.”

He urges MLB to teach resilience, not just performance.

 Award Markets: Cy Young & MVP Races

 American League

• Garrett Crochet (BOS): +210

  • 7 no-hit innings

  • FIP: 1.23

  • Josh: “He’s like Chris Sale but bigger and nastier.”

• Tarek Skubal (DET): +425

• Cole Ragans: 23 IP, 34 K, 4 BB

National League

• Paul Skenes (PIT) & Hunter Greene (CIN): +300

  • Skenes: ERA 3.46, FIP 1.31

  • Greene: ERA 0.98, FIP 1.66, 27.2 IP

• Spencer Schwellenbach:

  • ERA 0.45 (lowest), FIP 2.35, 20 IP

  • 8.55 K/9

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 1.23 ERA, looks far more comfortable in Year 2 with less pressure (thanks to Sasaki)

Josh believes Crochet was underpaid:

? “MLBPA probably told him not to sign. That contract was bad for other pitchers.”

 Advanced Metrics: FIP Over ERA

They agree that FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is the truest skill metric.

• Example: Chris Bassitt – Lowest FIP in MLB (1.20)

• Others with elite FIPs: Rasmussen, Luzardo, Sanchez

Josh reiterates:

? “Control what you can control. Wins are team stats — FIP is a pitcher stat.”

 Division & Team Trends

 Standouts:

• Padres: 13 wins, 10-0 at home (only undefeated home team), +700 to win NL West

• Mets: 10-5 but heavily reliant on pitching due to poor offense

• Yankees: Great pitching, poor defense hurting Fried’s stats (3 of 7 runs earned)

Josh's observations:

• Red Sox were 8-9 but could have led AL with 1 more win (9 wins leads AL)

• Orioles need pitching badly

• Dodgers’ run differential: 0 — underperforming

Futures Bets Breakdown

• Padres projected at 90 wins, now -140 to go over → Both hosts agree it's solid value.

• Mets: Projected 90 wins but Josh disagrees, citing lack of hitting.

• Dodgers: Win total set at 100; risky due to injuries and bullpen usage.

• AL East: Wide open — Josh leans Boston, fading Toronto and Tampa.

Weather & Travel Effects

Josh validates that cold-weather transitions impact performance:

• Teams moving from California to cold cities often struggle in Game 1

• Weather + body discomfort + travel fatigue = low performance

? “Nobody likes hitting in the cold — maybe a few pitchers, that’s it.”

Final Anecdotes

Josh shares a personal story:

• Left on the mound to “die” by his manager

• Gave up a grand slam after loading bases intentionally

• “These stats don’t matter to me anymore.” – a moment of defiance

? “They were smug. I was like, alright, I’m giving it right back.”