For what it’s worth, yesterday ended up being a really bad dayning day for me.
I used nine games and twelve sides on my parlay card. I won five sides and lost three, but I pushed on four.
I finished -16.73 units for the day, leaving me -0.22 units for this season, pretty much right where I started.
Nere is my Monday card.
|
MLParlays
|
Team
|
Team 2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
|
PITT 1st 5 ML
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
142
|
2
|
|
|
PITT 1st 5 ML
|
DET ML
|
142
|
2
|
|
|
PITT 1st 5 ML
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
137
|
2
|
|
|
PITT 1st 5 ML
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
-107
|
2
|
|
|
PITT 1st 5 ML
|
LAD ML
|
-107
|
2
|
|
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
DET ML
|
177
|
2
|
|
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
172
|
2
|
|
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
122
|
2
|
|
|
DET 1st 5 ML
|
LAD ML
|
122
|
2
|
|
|
DET ML
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
172
|
2
|
|
|
DET ML
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
122
|
2
|
|
|
DET ML
|
LAD ML
|
122
|
2
|
|
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
117
|
2
|
|
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
LAD ML
|
117
|
2
|
|
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
LAD ML
|
129
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sides
|
KC 1st 5 ML
|
|
107
|
1
|
WASH @ PITT
The 6-9 Nats dropped 2 if the to the Marlins in Miami over the weekend while the 5-11 Pirates were swept by the Red in Cincinnati.
Starting Pitchers
|
6:40
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
WASH
|
Lord – R
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PITT
|
Skenes - R
|
(2/2)
|
(0/3)
|
0.82
|
3.44
|
1.45
|
1.30
|
2.24
|
3.32
|
0.305
|
0.200
|
28.6%
|
4,5%
|
Edge – PITT
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
WASH
|
2
|
1
|
5
|
2
|
8
|
0.78
|
27
|
1.86
|
39
|
6.35
|
30
|
67.6%
|
20
|
18.7%
|
28
|
14.3%
|
28
|
|
PITT
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
9
|
0.45
|
12
|
1.30
|
16
|
3.45
|
11
|
73.7%
|
12
|
21.9%
|
18
|
11.7%
|
20
|
Edge – PITT
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
RK
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
WASH
|
4.67
|
9
|
0.323
|
9
|
109
|
11
|
0.165
|
8
|
0.239
|
12
|
10.2%
|
6
|
-1.7
|
28
|
23.2%
|
16
|
|
PITT
|
3.13
|
29
|
0.255
|
30
|
61
|
30
|
0.106
|
26
|
0.184
|
30
|
10.0%
|
8
|
-2.3
|
30
|
25.3%
|
26
|
Edge – WASH
Conclusion: The Nats offense has been pretty damned good so far this season, much better than the Pirates offense ,and that’s a legitimate cocern. However, ste starting pitching matchup kiiks like a mismatch. Rookie Brad Lord has all of 5 MLB innings under his belt. He’s only given up 2 runs (1 earned, but 5 hits and 4 walks. That’s a lot for just 5 innings. Paul Skenes is an elite talent and he’s coming off a rare poor start v the Cards. I;m expecting a strong bounce back tonight.
Pick – PITT 1st 5 ML
KC @ NYY
The 8-8 Royalsdropped 2 of 3 to the Guardians in Cleveland over the weekend, while the 8-7 Yankees dropped two of 3 to the visiting Giants.
Starting Pitchers
|
7:05
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
KC
|
Lugo – R
|
(2/3)
|
(1/3)
|
1.26
|
3.57
|
4.42
|
3.83
|
3.76
|
4.63
|
0.317
|
0.332
|
18.2%
|
10.6%
|
|
NYY
|
Carrasco - R
|
(1/2)
|
(1/2)
|
1.63
|
7.71
|
6.07
|
6.5
|
4.15
|
3.94
|
0.440
|
0.392
|
19.2%
|
5.8%
|
Edge – KC
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
KC
|
3
|
2
|
6
|
2
|
9
|
0.52
|
18
|
1.32
|
17
|
3.78
|
14
|
71.9%
|
15
|
20.9%
|
20
|
10.9%
|
19
|
|
NYY
|
3
|
1
|
3
|
1
|
8
|
0.49
|
14
|
1.28
|
15
|
3.75
|
13
|
69.1%
|
18
|
31.6%
|
1
|
15.4%
|
30
|
Edge – NYY
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
RK
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
KC
|
3.25
|
27
|
0.272
|
27
|
72
|
26
|
0.100
|
29
|
0.219
|
21
|
7.3%
|
26
|
-0.3
|
17
|
21.7%
|
9
|
|
NYY
|
5.33
|
2
|
0.363
|
1
|
140
|
1
|
0.230
|
1
|
0.259
|
5
|
9.8%
|
11
|
-0.5
|
19
|
25.0%
|
25
|
Edge – NYY
Conclusion: After an incredibly hot start, the Yankkes bats have cooled of considerably, but they are still hitting better than the Royals and that’s a legitimate concern. That said, the 38-year old Carlos Caarrasco is on the downside of his career and his stat profile clearly reflects that. Seth Lugo proved he was a quality starting pitcher when ge got the opportunity kast season. I’m fading Carrasco, but that Yankee offense scares me enugh to drop this bet to 1 unit.
Pick –
DET @ NIL
The 9-6 Tigers took 2 of 3 from the Twins in Minnesota over the weekend, while the 8-8 Brewers dropped 2 of 3 to the Diamondbacks in the desert.
Starting Pitchers
|
7:40
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
DET
|
Skuba; - L
|
(1/3)
|
(2/3)
|
1.20
|
3.78
|
3.43
|
4.13
|
3.52
|
3.46
|
0.312
|
0.305
|
23.2%
|
5.8%
|
|
MIL
|
Alexander
|
(1/2)
|
(1/2)
|
1.18
|
2.84
|
5.11
|
4.01
|
4.93
|
4.68
|
0.276
|
0.365
|
23.1%
|
13.5%
|
Edge – DET
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
DET
|
3
|
3
|
4
|
1
|
3
|
0.50
|
15
|
0.99
|
4
|
3.91
|
16
|
68.5%
|
19
|
20.9%
|
20
|
5.8%
|
3
|
|
MIL
|
3
|
4
|
2
|
2
|
10
|
0.82
|
30
|
1.59
|
26
|
6.28
|
28
|
56.5%
|
29
|
21.7%
|
19
|
11.7%
|
20
|
Edge – DET
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
RK
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
DET
|
4.73
|
8
|
0.331
|
6
|
118
|
7
|
0.168
|
7
|
0.249
|
10
|
9.7%
|
14
|
0.2
|
13
|
25.7%
|
28
|
|
MIL
|
5.06
|
5
|
0.307
|
17
|
96
|
20
|
0.143
|
17
|
0.236
|
15
|
8.7%
|
21
|
1.2
|
10
|
22.7%
|
14
|
Edge – DET
Conclusion: Strangely enough the Brewers are averaging about a third of a run more than the Tigers, but the Tigers; offense posses the better statistical profile. Go figure? The Tigers habe the clearly better bullpen. Look no further than that 5-run 9th inning meltdown by the Brewers’ pen un a 5-4 loss tp the Dbacks. Then there’s the starting pitching mismatch, Tarik Skubal, the reighning AL Cy Young Award winner v the eminently forgettable Tyler Alexander.
Pick – DET 1st 5 and full game ML
CHI C @ SD
The 11-7 Cubs took t2 of 3 from the visiting Dodgers over the weekend, while the 13-3 Padres swept the vising Rockies. What else is new.
Starting Pitchers
|
9:40
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
CHI C
|
Taillon – R
|
(2/2)
|
(1/3)
|
1.35
|
6.06
|
5.31
|
5.19
|
4.04
|
3.98
|
0.367
|
0.371
|
20.0%
|
5.60%
|
|
SD
|
Cease R
|
(1/3)
|
(2/3)
|
1.57
|
7.98
|
3.65
|
2.65
|
3.34
|
3.39
|
0.341
|
0.315
|
27.3%
|
9.1%
|
Edge – SD
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
CHI C
|
2
|
2
|
5
|
4
|
12
|
0.51
|
17
|
1.57
|
25
|
4.28
|
21
|
72.5%
|
13
|
18.8%
|
25
|
10.7%
|
18
|
|
SD
|
4
|
0
|
8
|
0
|
14
|
0.17
|
1
|
0.91
|
2
|
1.51
|
1
|
94.0%
|
1
|
28.0%
|
3
|
9.5%
|
14
|
Edge – SD
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
RK
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
CHI C
|
6.44
|
1
|
0.348
|
2
|
127
|
2
|
0.183
|
5
|
0.256
|
6
|
11.4%
|
3
|
3.4
|
1
|
19.9%
|
6
|
|
SD
|
4.56
|
10
|
0.341
|
5
|
123
|
4
|
0.140
|
18
|
0.283
|
1
|
8.8%
|
20
|
0.3
|
12
|
17.5%
|
2
|
Edge – CHI C
Conclusion: The Padres are a very good hitting team, but so far this season the Cubs have been even better and that’s scary. However, the Padres have the clearly better pen and most importantly, Dylan Cease. Cease’s stat profile is much better than Jamleson Tailon’s. I’m betting on Cease ere.
Pick – SD `1st 5 ML
COL @ LAD
The 3-12 Rockies were swept by the Padres in San Diegp over the weekend. While the 1306 Dodgeers were dropping 2 of 3 to the Cubs in ?Chicago.
Starting Pitchers
|
10:10
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
COL
|
Senzatela - r
|
(0/4)
|
(3/3)
|
2.14
|
5.14
|
5.84
|
4.64
|
4.42
|
4.26
|
0.450
|
0.386
|
8.8%
|
4.4%
|
|
JAD
|
May
|
(2/2(
|
-2
|
0.91
|
0.82
|
3.46
|
3.37
|
4.27
|
4.92
|
1.810
|
0.307
|
16.3%
|
14.0%
|
Edge – LAD
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
COL
|
2
|
1
|
2
|
4
|
6
|
0.81
|
28
|
1.68
|
28
|
5.92
|
27
|
66.5%
|
23
|
17.9%
|
29
|
14.7%
|
29
|
|
LAD
|
7
|
2
|
7
|
2
|
16
|
0.46
|
13
|
1.20
|
10
|
4.01
|
18
|
71.8%
|
16
|
27.2%
|
5
|
7.9%
|
6
|
Edge LAD big
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
RK
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
COL
|
3.67
|
30
|
0.275
|
26
|
63
|
29
|
0.115
|
25
|
0.218
|
23
|
7.3%
|
26
|
-0.4
|
18
|
29.3%
|
30
|
|
LAD
|
4.35
|
13
|
0.321
|
10
|
108
|
12
|
0.198
|
3
|
0.225
|
18
|
9.2%
|
16
|
-0.6
|
20
|
24.4%
|
21
|
Edge – LAD big
Conclusion: After starting the season 6-0, the Dodgers have struggled going just 7-6. Nothing could cure that faster than a visit from the Rockies who are a wretched 108 on the road this season, after going 24-57 away from Coors last season. Now throw in Antonio Senzatela who has sucked and you understand why I’m fading the Rockies in the road.
Pick – LAD 1st 5 and full game MLs