For what it’s worth, it was another losing days, albeit a small one.

I used the Red 1^st 5 and the Padres ML in a parlay and that cashed.  I also  had side bets on the Tigers 1^st 5 and full game ML, the Phils ML and the Rangers 1^st 5 ML.  The Tigers ML cashed, but the other four lost.

I finished a-3.54 units for the day, leaving me +11.61 units for this season.

Considering just how bad I’ve picked over the last several days, I will consider myself fortunate to still be a little ahead for the season.  I can’t explain the last four days and I’m not even going to try, but I still trust my process.

Nere is my Saturday card.

Here are my thought on those games.

PHIL @ STL

The 8-5 Phils were shut out by the 6-7 Cards 2-0 in STL last night.  Adre Pallante was outstanding tossing 7 shutout innings.  I was stunned by how inept made the Phils’ hitters look.   

Starting Pitchers

Edge – PHIL

Bullpens

Edge – STL

Offenses

Edge – surprisingly, STL

Conclusion:  I still don’t believe it, but it happened again last night.  The Cards beat a very good Phils team.   based on their 2025 stats, the Cards are hitting better that the Phils so far this season.  The Card bullpen has also been the better unit, but that’s really not all that surprising.  If the Phils have a weakness, it’s their pen.  However, the Phils should have a big edge in today;s starting pitching matchup with Cristopher Sancez facing Miles Mikolas.  Sanchez has pretty much all the statistical edges here.  Mikolas, who will turn 37 this season and is basically a finesse pitcher, hasn’t shown much in recent season and I am not expecting that to change.   

I had the Cards pegged as one of the league’s bottom feeders this season as did many others.  Thus fat they’ve been surprisingly competotive, but I still have my doubts.  I have some concerns about the Phils bullpen, but I still think that they’re one of the league’s elite teams.  The Phils should be a lot better than the Cards.  Of course, I said the same thing last night and look how that turned out.  That said, I’m backing the Phils today and fading Mikolas.

Past – PHIL 1^st 5 and full game MLs

SF @ NYY

The surprising 10-3 Giants pounded the 7-6 Yankees 9-1 in a rain shortened game last night at Yankee Stadium.  

Starting Pitchers

Edge – SF

Bullpens

Edge – SF

Offenses

Edge – NYY

Conclusion:  You sure wouldn’t know it based on what we saw last night, but the stats say that the Yankees are the better itting team here, but that’s a little deceptive.  The Yanks have played 13 games and in 5 of them scored 20, 12, 10, and 9 twice.  That’s more than enough to warp their offensive state with on 14 games.  The Giants are hitting pretty damned well themselves, but not quite as well.  When we turn to the pitching side, it’s the Giants who have most of the edges. Both pen have performed well, but the Giants have the better W-L record, as well as the better WHIP, ERA, strand rate, K rate and walk rate.  As for the starting pitchng matchup, that looks like a joke.  Jotdan Hicks is off to a great start for the Giants.  Yeah, it’s still early, but his numbers are very impressive, especially when compared to Will Warren;s.  Warren has no business being in any MLB starting rotation.  He’s only in the Yanks because they don’t have anyone else, what with the injuries to Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil.

I’m not comfortable fading the Yanks offense, but for five innings I’ll take Jordan Hicks any day v Will Warren.

Pick – SF 1^st 5 ML

NYM @ OAK

Pete Alonso homered and drove in 3 runs, Brandon Nimmo also homered and Griffin Canning pitched into the 6^th as the 9-4 Mets held off the 5-9 A’s 7-6 last night at Citi Field.

Starting Pitchers  

Edge – NYM, by default

Bullpens

Edge – NYM

Offenses

Edge – NYM

Conclusion:  The Mets should have all the edges in this one.  They are the much better hitting team, averaging over a run more per game with a much better wOBA, wRC+, ISO, Baand walk rate than the A’s.  The Mets also have the statistically better bullpen, with the sole exception of a higher runs allowed per inning pitched.  That bring us to the two starting pitchers and that’s a tougher call.  David Peterson has only started 2 games with one grading a above average and the other grading as average.  His WHIP is high, probably because of his very high walk rate, but his ERA is very good (in the mid 2s).  Peterson’s  ERA metrics are all also considerably higher than that ERA.  J.T, Ginn was called up from Triple-A Las Vegas to make this start for the A’s.   Ginn who has had a litany of arm issues throughout his career, looked healthy for the first time in a while last season, throwing over 100 innings for the first time in his careers. He underwent Tommy John surgery just before the shutdown in 2020, though that didn’t deter the Mets from selecting him in the 2^nd round of that year’s draft. He was traded to the A’s for Chris Bassitt before the 2022 season. Forearm soreness cost him a chunk of 2022 and he showed reduced velocity and poor command when he returned, only to be shut down two more times with forearm soreness. The sink on Ginn’s fastball is nasty, so even though it has below-average velocity, it’s at least an average pitch and can generate GBs.  That pitch pairs nicely with his slider, which generated a 17% swinging strike rate during his eight-game big league run in 2024.

The Mets should be the much better team here.

Pick – NYM ML

WASH @ MIA

Nathaniel Lowe hit a bases-clearing, go-ahead double in the 8^th and James Wood added a HR un the 9^th as the 607 Nats scored 7 unanswered runs to erase a 4-0 deficit in a 7-4 win at the 6-7 Marlins last night.

Starting Pitchers

Edge -MIA

Bullpens

Edge – None

Offenses

Edge – WASH

Conclusion:  The Nats are the better hitting team here.  They are averaging a run more per game with the better wOBA, wRC+ and ISO.  The bullpen comparison isn’t relevant because this is a 1^st 5 bet only.  It’s all about the two starting pitchers Trevor Williams hasn’t been very good this season and that;snot surprising.  Williams’ entire career reeks of mediocrity.  He’ll give you innings and that’s about it.  By contrast, Sandly Alcanra was elite prior to going down and undergoing TJ surgery.  He returned this season and has looked very good so far, with an excellent stat profile.  I know what I’m going to get with Williams, more of the same.  I don’t like the Marlins offense, but for five innings, I;m ready to hop on the Alcantara bandwagon.

Pick – MIA 1^st 5 ML

José Quintana tossed 7 scoreless innings in his Brewers debut, leading the 8-6 Brewers to a 7-0 sutout win over the 7-7 Diamondbacks in the desert last night.

MIL @ ARIZ

Edge – As crrzy as it appear ARIZ

Bullpens

Edge – ARIZ

Offenses

Edge – ARIZ

Conclusion:  Wile the Brewers actually are averaging 0.22 more runs per games than the Dbacks, almost every other offensive stat tilts to the Dbacks.  They have the better wOBA, wRC+. ISO, BA, walk and K rates.  The margins are all fairly small but theu all points to the Dbacks.  The bullpen edge also goes to the Dbacks and the margins are pretty clear about that.   That brings us to the two starting pitchers and this matchup is problematic for me.  I am a stat guy.  I rely on and trust the numbers, and so far this season, the numbers say Brewers, but I’m still leaning Dbacks.  Chad Patrick has pitched well in both of his starts this season v the Reds and Royals, but his ERA merics are all considerably higher than his stellar ERA and he’s carrying a very hugh `15.2% walk rate that will catch up with him if he keeps walking batters at that rate.  Corbin Burnes has been a huge disappointment for the Dbacks so far, but it is still only April 12 and Burnes is coming off a dominant season with the Orios in 2024.  The 30-year old Burne has been too damned good for long enough  I’m nor willing to write him off after two lousy outings with a new team.  I can’t do it.

The stats don’t support me here but…

ARIZ 1^st 5 and full game MLs