For what it’s worth, after a great day kast Friday when I won everything that I bet, the Next four days were horrific. I knew that days like I has last Friday are rare and luck had something to do with it. What I didn’t expect was the losing streak that followed over the next four days.
I used two games and four sides on my Wednesday parlay card, the Mets 1st 5 and full game MLs, and the Cubs 1st 5 and full game MLs. I lost all four sides. I also had side bets on the Phils 1st 5 and full game MLs. I pushed on that 1st 5 and cashed with the full game. I finished an ugly –9.58 units for the day, leaving me +14.15 units for this season.
Considering just how bad I’ve picked over the last four days, I will consider myself fortunate to still be a little ahead for the season. I can’t explain the last four days and I’m not even going to try, but I still trust my process.
I took yesterday off. I didn’t like any of the six games and I needed some time to clear my head. I decided to start using this season’s stats today. I’ll obviously update starting pitcher stats daily, but team bullpen and offensive stats weekly. Enough games have been played that those stats shpuldm’t change too dramatically in a week.
Nere is my Friday card.
|
MLParlays
|
Team
|
Team 2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CIN 1st 5 ML
|
SD ML
|
126
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sides
|
DET Ist 5 ML
|
|
104
|
2
|
|
DET ML
|
|
-103
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
|
-122
|
2
|
|
TEX 1st 5 RL
|
|
110
|
2
|
|
TEX ML
|
|
122
|
2
|
Here are my thought on those games.
PITT @ CIN
The 5-8 Pirates had yesterday off and head to Cincinnati for a weekend series against the Reds, after taking two of three from the visiting Cards. The 5-8 Reds also had the day off and return home after taking two of three from the Giants in San Francisco.
Starting Pitchers
|
6:40
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
PITT
|
Falter - L
|
|
(1/2)
|
(1/2)
|
1.50
|
5.61
|
3.55
|
3.79
|
3.96
|
3.61
|
0.415
|
0.306
|
20.0%
|
2.2%
|
|
CIN
|
Singer - R
|
|
(1/2)
|
(1/2)
|
1.08
|
2.25
|
2.08
|
1.32
|
2.90
|
2.82
|
0.248
|
0.235
|
30.6%
|
6.1%
|
Edge – CIN
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
PITT
|
2
|
3
|
3
|
4
|
9
|
0.44
|
0
|
1.40
|
19
|
3.86
|
14
|
72.5%
|
14
|
22.1%
|
19
|
12.2%
|
23
|
|
CIN
|
0
|
2
|
3
|
2
|
9
|
0.65
|
26
|
1.13
|
8
|
3.86
|
14
|
68.5%
|
20
|
17.1%
|
29
|
9.9%
|
15
|
Edge – None
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
RK
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
PITT
|
4.67
|
11
|
0.267
|
27
|
67
|
29
|
0.103
|
28
|
0.198
|
30
|
10.4%
|
8
|
-0.6
|
21
|
25.0%
|
23
|
|
CIN
|
3.69
|
18
|
0.267
|
27
|
63
|
30
|
0.123
|
22
|
0.206
|
25
|
6.5%
|
30
|
-1.1
|
26
|
25.1%
|
24
|
Edge – None
Conclusion: When I look at the two offenses and bullpens, I don’t see a hell of a lot of difference between them. Neither team is hitting very well and nether bullpen has impressed. However, Brady Singer is the clearly better starting pitcher here. He is carrying the Better WHIP, ERA, ERA metrics wOBA and xwOBA. His career stats are also much better than Falter’s.
Pick – CIN 1st 5 ML
DET @ MINN
The 7-5 Tigers, who had yesterday off, head to the Twin Cities to face the Twins in a weekend series after taking two of three from the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. The 4-9 Twins return home after dropping three of four 4 to the Royals in KC.
Starting Pitchers
|
8:10
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
DET
|
Olson - R
|
|
(1/2)
|
(1/2)
|
1.50
|
5.06
|
4.16
|
3.82
|
3.70
|
4.08
|
0.340
|
0.328
|
22.2%
|
11.1%
|
|
MINN
|
Festa - R *
|
|
6/13)
|
(7/13)
|
1.32
|
4.90
|
4.14
|
3.76
|
3.58
|
3.58
|
0.324
|
0.314
|
27.8%
|
8.3%
|
*2023
Edge – None
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
DET
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
1
|
2
|
0.73
|
25
|
0.91
|
2
|
4.20
|
20
|
60.9%
|
25
|
22.2%
|
18
|
5.6%
|
2
|
|
MINN
|
2
|
3
|
0
|
1
|
8
|
0.50
|
16
|
1.09
|
7
|
2.36
|
5
|
81.9%
|
3
|
24.3%
|
13
|
7.9%
|
6
|
Edge – None
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
RK
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
DET
|
4.92
|
9
|
0.347
|
4
|
131
|
2
|
0.187
|
5
|
0.261
|
5
|
10.6%
|
7
|
-0.1
|
16
|
25.7%
|
27
|
|
MINN
|
3.38
|
25
|
0.290
|
21
|
96
|
17
|
0.133
|
19
|
0.200
|
29
|
11.5%
|
3
|
0.3
|
11
|
23.8%
|
17
|
Edge – DET
Conclusion: The Tigers have been the clearly better team so far this season. They are obviously hitting much better, and while both of these bullpens have been solid, the starting pitching matchup could be close. I can’t say that Reese Olsen’s pitched all that well this season because he hasn’t, but he did last season and David Festa was just recalled by the Twins from AAA St. Paul this morning. Festa did make 13 starts for the Twins last season ao pitched OK. The Tigers look like the better team right now and they’ve done so despite already facing the Dodgers and Yankees.
Pick – DET ML.
PHIL @ STL
The 8-4 Phils head to STL after dropping two of three tp the Braves in Atlanta, including a tough 4-3 extra-inning loss last night. The 5-7 Cards had the day off and return home after dropping two of three to the Pirates in Pittsburgh.
Starting Pitchers
|
8:15
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
PHIL
|
Nola - R
|
|
(0/2)
|
(2/2)
|
1.24
|
6.35
|
5.93
|
6.42
|
3.64
|
3.41
|
0.396
|
0.382
|
20.8%
|
2.1%
|
|
STL
|
Pallante R
|
|
(0/2)
|
(2/2)
|
1.39
|
3.86
|
4.82
|
5.53
|
3.37
|
3.32
|
0.327
|
0.348
|
22.0%
|
12.2%
|
Edge – STL
Bullpens
|
8:15
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
PHIL
|
Nola - R
|
|
(0/2)
|
(2/2)
|
1.24
|
6.35
|
5.93
|
6.42
|
3.64
|
3.41
|
0.396
|
0.382
|
20.8%
|
2.1%
|
|
STL
|
Pallante R
|
|
(0/2)
|
(2/2)
|
1.39
|
3.86
|
4.82
|
5.53
|
3.37
|
3.32
|
0.327
|
0.348
|
22.0%
|
12.2%
|
Edge – STL
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
RK
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
PHIL
|
4.67
|
11
|
0.350
|
3
|
124
|
4
|
0.164
|
9
|
0.265
|
4
|
12.1%
|
2
|
-0.8
|
23
|
21.7%
|
11
|
|
STL
|
6.00
|
3
|
0.346
|
5
|
123
|
5
|
0.159
|
13
|
0.278
|
2
|
9.4%
|
13
|
-0.9
|
24
|
20.7%
|
9
|
Edge – surprisingly, STL
Conclusion: I don’t believe it either, but based on their 2025 stats, the Cards are hitting better that the Phils so far this season. The Card bullpen has also been the better unit, but that’s really not all that surprising. If the Phils have a weakness, it’s their pen. What is surprising is that Andre Pallante has been better than Aaron Nola. The 31-year old Nola, who has been one of the anchors in the Phils rotation is struggling so far this season. As far as I can tell, he hasn’t lost any velocity and he’s not walking batters either, but Nola may have been experiencing some bad luck on batted balls in play, or at least that’s what his .321 BABIP tells me when compa1red to his .265 BA allowed. That's a 55- point discrepancy!
I had the Cards pegged as one of the league’s bottom feeders this season as did many others. I still believe that, and while I have some concerns about the Phils bullpen, I still think that thy’re on of the league’s elite teams. The Phols should be a lot better than the Cards. While I can’t back Aaron Nola until he shows me something, I will back the Phils.
Pick – PHIL ML
COL @ SD
The 3-9 Rockies hit the road again and head to San Diego after dropping two of three to the Brewers at Coors, including a 7=2 win last night to avoid getting swept.
The 10-3 Padres had the day off and return home after dropping two of three to the A’s in Scramento.
Starting Pitchers
|
9:40
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
COL
|
Marquez - R
|
|
(1/2)
|
(1/2)
|
1.36
|
2.45
|
3.09
|
3.43
|
4.76
|
5.20
|
0.291
|
0.285
|
15.6%
|
13.3%
|
|
SD
|
Pivetta - R
|
|
(1/2)
|
(1/2)
|
1.00
|
2.70
|
4.60
|
3.67
|
3.98
|
4.13
|
0.248
|
0.385
|
20.0%
|
7.5%
|
Edge – None
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
COL
|
1
|
4
|
2
|
3
|
6
|
0.29
|
4
|
1.76
|
29
|
6.81
|
30
|
59.6%
|
28
|
18.2%
|
26
|
12.9%
|
27
|
|
SD
|
4
|
0
|
7
|
0
|
12
|
0.40
|
7
|
0.91
|
2
|
1.65
|
1
|
93.5%
|
1
|
25.7%
|
10
|
9.8%
|
13
|
Edge – SD
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
RK
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
COL
|
3.33
|
27
|
0.292
|
20
|
73
|
27
|
0.123
|
22
|
0.232
|
16
|
7.7%
|
25
|
-0.1
|
16
|
29.1%
|
30
|
|
SD
|
4.38
|
13
|
0.336
|
8
|
118
|
7
|
0.127
|
20
|
0.286
|
1
|
8.4%
|
20
|
0.5
|
10
|
17.7%
|
2
|
Edge – SD big
Conclusion: The Padres are the vastly superior hitting team here. They also have the much better bullpen. The starting pitching matchup, on the other hand looks closer. German Marquez has actually pitched pretty well considering that he missed almost all of 2023 and 2024. Nick Pivetta has also be OK in his first season with the Padres. However, while both ho;d fine ERAs, their ERA metrics are all much higher. I’m not willing to give either one an edge here.
The Padres hit a hell of a lot better than the Rockies and they have the better bullpen. The Rockies are also just 1-5 away from Coors this season, after finishing a dismal 24-57 on the road last season. Give me the Padres.
Pick – SD ML
TEX @ SEA
The 9-3 Rangers had yesterday off and head to Seattle for a weekend series with the Mariners after dropping two of three to the Cubs in Chicago.
The 5-8 Mariners also had ysterday off after taking two of three from the Visiting Astros.
Starting Pitchers
|
9:40
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
TTEX
|
deGrom - R
|
|
(1/2)
|
(1/2)
|
1.13
|
3.38
|
3.40
|
4.60
|
4.07
|
2.98
|
0.332
|
0.299
|
20.5%
|
4.5%
|
|
SEA
|
Miller - R - R
|
|
(0/2)
|
(2/2)
|
1.19
|
5.73
|
4.92
|
4.10
|
4.90
|
4.89
|
0.371
|
0.353
|
16.7%
|
10.4%
|
Edge – TEX
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
TEX
|
4
|
2
|
6
|
3
|
14
|
0.59
|
23
|
1.33
|
17
|
4.13
|
19
|
57.3%
|
29
|
24.3%
|
13
|
8.6%
|
8
|
|
SEA
|
3
|
3
|
4
|
2
|
4
|
0.51
|
19
|
1.40
|
19
|
3.11
|
8
|
74.3%
|
12
|
18.8%
|
25
|
10.0%
|
16
|
Edge – None
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
RK
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
|
TEX
|
3.46
|
21
|
0.282
|
24
|
84
|
21
|
0.160
|
11
|
0.207
|
24
|
6.8%
|
28
|
1.6
|
4
|
21.6%
|
10
|
|
SEA
|
3.38
|
25
|
0.290
|
22
|
97
|
17
|
0.133
|
19
|
0.200
|
29
|
11.5%
|
3
|
0.3
|
11
|
23.8%
|
17
|
Edge – None
Conclusion: Neither of these two tems is hitting very well and both struggle to score runs. However, when it come to the pitching side of the equation, the Rangers appear to have all the edges. While these two bullpens are fairly close, the Rangers appear to have a big edge in the starting pitching matchup with Jacob deGrom facing Bryce Miller. deGrom is healthy and has retained his velocity, while Miller has struggled. deGrom has the clearly better stat profile.