For what it’s worth, I used four games and five sides on my parlay card, the Tigers 1^st 5 ML, the Pirates 1^st 5 ML, the Red Sox 1^st acks 1^st 5and full game MLs, and the Mets ML. I also had side bets on the Phils ML and the Padres 1^st 5 and full game MLs. Much to my shock, only the Tigers and Mets covered.  Everyone else lost! I finished an ugly –19.92 units for the day, and +23.73 units for this young season.

• The Pirates got to Paul Skenes,
• The Blue Jay beat up on Garrett Cochet,
• The Phils bullpen collaped, and
• The A;s got to Dylan Cease.

Here’s my Wednesday card.

 Here are my thought on the games

MIA @ NYM

Pete Alonso drove in four runs, Francisco Lindor hit a leadoff HR,  Brandon Nimmo hit a wo-run double, Starling Marte added a two-run single, and Juan Soto had two singles and scored twice, as the Mets bombed the Marlins 10-5 yesterday notching their sixth straight win.

Starting Pitchers

Max Meyer will make his third start for the Marlins today.  Meyer’s first two starts both graded as above average.  He has given up 5 runs (4 earned) on 13 hits and 3 walks rover 11.2 innings with 15 Ks.  

Tylor Megill will also be making his third start of the season for the Mets today.  Megill’s first two starts  also both also graded as above average.  Megill has given up just 1 run on 5 hits and 4 walks over 10.1 innings with 10 Ks.

Edge – NYM, slight

Bullpens

The Marlins bullpen is currently 3-2 with 1 save, 6 holds and 1 blown save with a mediocre 1.32 WHIP and 3.63 ERA over 43.2 innings.  

The Mets bullpen is currently 3-0 with 3 saves, 8 holds and 0 blown saves with a superb 0.92 WHIP and 1.15 ERA over 39 innings.

Edge –NYM

Offenses

The Marlins are averaging 3.30 runs per game with a .291 wOBA and 93 wRC+. 

The Mets are averaging 3.50 runs per game with a .300 wOBA and 88 wRC+.

Edge – MYM, but surprisingly close

Neither of these offenses started off that well, but the 10 runs that the Met put up last night should boost their offensive stats.   With their big offseason additions like Juan Soto, the Mets should be the better hitting team here and it shouldn’t be close.  The Marlins’ bullpen has actually looked pretty good so far, but the Mets pen, if anything, has looked even better.  As for the two starting pitchers, both have pitched well in their first two starts with Megill performing slightly better (only 1 run allowd).  On paper the Mets should be the clearly better team here.  That’s been the case in the first two games of this series and I see no reason why that should change today.  I’ll ride the hot team. 

Pick – NYM ML

TEX @ CHI C

Dansby Swanson hit a tiebreaking two-run single in a four-run 8^th, after the Cubs had blown a 6-3 lead, but m but  two Ranger errors in the 8^th opened the door for the Cubs big inning as the Cubs beat the Cubs beat the Rangers 10-6 last night. The Cubs have now won seven of their last eight games. 

Starting Pitchers

Tyler Mahle will make his third starts of the season for the Rangers today.  While Mahle didn’t make it out of the 2^nd second in his first start against the Red Sox, which graded as well below average, Male’s second outing against the Rays was much better and graded as above average.  In those two outings, Mahle has given up 1 run on 3 hits, but 6 walks over 6.2 innings with 8 Ks.

Shota Imanaga will make his fourth start of the season for the Cubs today.  In his first three outing Imanaga has been dominant with all three grading as above average.  Imanaga has given up a total of just 2 hits and 6 walks over 18.1 innings with 10 Ks.    

Edge – CHI C

Bullpens

The Ranger bullpen is currently 4-2 with 6 saves, 14 holds and 3 blown saves, while posting a 1.35 WHIP and 3.69 ERA.

The Cubs bullpen is currently 1-3 with 4 saves, 10 holds and 3 blown saves, while posting a poor 1.80 WHIP and 5.21 ERA. Their stats took a big hit after last night’s meltdown.

It’s to early to be sure, but at this moment…

Edge – TEX

Offenses

The Rangers are only averaging 3.25 runs per game with a .272 wOBA and 76 wRC+.

The Bubs, on the other hand are averaging a gawdy 6.71 runs per amewith a .349 wOBA and 126 wRC+

Edge – CHI C

Conclusion

Between their prolific offense and Imanaga’s dominance, the Cubs should be able to complete the sweep.

Pick – CHI C

PHIL @ ATL      

Sean Murphy homered and drove in four runs in his return from a rib injury, and Austin Riley hit two doubles, including a tiebreaking shot to the wall in right-center in the 7^th as the Braves beat the visiting hils 7-5 last night.

Starting Pitcher

Tajuan Walker will make his second start of the season for the Phils.  In his first start against the Rockies, Walker was superb, giving up just 3 hits and a walk over 6 scoreless innings with 4 Ks.  However, it was the Rockies who are 1-5 on the road where they have een historically awful, so let’s not get overly excited just yet.

Grant Holmes will make his fourth start of the season for the Braves.  Two of Holmes first three starts have graded as above average with one grading as below. In those three outings, Holes has given up 9 runs (7 earned) on 16 hits and 9 walkls (25 base runners) over 14.2 innings with 20 Ks.  The Ks are nice, but 25 base runners in less than 15 innings is just begging for trouble.

  I’m not ready to jump on a Walker bandwagon yet, but I want no part of Holmes.

Edge – PHIL, small and mostly by default

Bullpens

After last night’s debacle, the Phils’ bullpen is currently 3-1 with 3 save, 9 holds and 3 blown save with a mediocre 1.46 WHIP and 4.15 ERA over 30.1 innings.  

The Braves’ bullpen is currently 1-4 with 1 save, 4 holds and 2  blown saves with a 1.27 WHIP and 4.09 ERA over 33 innings.

Edge –Good question.  Right now NONE

 Offenses

The Phils are averaging a healthy 5 runs per game with a .349 wOBA and 123 wRC+. 

The Braves are averaging just 3.10 runs per game with a .282 wOBA and 77 wRC+.  However, they’ve now scored 21 in their last 3 games, so maybe they’re coming out of their hitting funk._

Edge – PHIL

Conclusion:  While I give Tajuan Walker an edge over Grant Holmes in the starting pitching matchup, ome good outing at home against the Rockies just isn’t enough to justify a 1^st 5 bet  I don’t trust either bullpen either.  This come down to who will hit tonight.  I think that the Phils are the better hitting team and that they bounce back from  terrible loss last night.

Pick – PHIL ML