Braves played well

Thanks AJ!

great call

So I'm taking my thought process for this game and expanding it.

I calculated all 30 teams hit to run ratios YTD, and last 3 games. The ones with the lowest (Cubs 1.20 YTD and 1.17 Iast 3 would be the ones I deem most inflated. The ones with the highest Cincinnati and Yankees both over 3.5 hits per run last 3 games I would view as being under valued.

With this thought process I'm not saying go out and bet all these but the ones I think have value.

Yankees are a buy low in my eyes (29th hit to run ratio last 3)
Detroit is a sell in my eyes (4th hit to run ratio last 3)

Cubs sell (1st in ratio last 3) vs rangers slight buy (21 in ratio last 3)

Cincy and sf are 2 of the 3 worst ratios in the last 3 games in the league. If you believe that trend will continue hammer the under or if you believe vice versa go over.... I'm not gonna touch it both though.

White Sox are buy (27 in ratio)

Love Tampa Bay (25 in ratio) vs Angels (2 in ratio) tb same amount of hits as Angels last 3 games but runs are 20 to 10 Angels advantage.

The thing I would be weary about is don't go buy huge on white Sox just because ratio is high. They for example have only had 14 hits last 3 games. So they are not hitting and they are not scoring but teams I will be on today are Yankees (21 hits last 3 or tb ( 26 hits last 3) because they are hitting the ball they just aren't scoring

Detroit also great example 21 hits 15 runs last 3 games

Yankees 21 hits 6 runs last 3 games

The three bets I made for anyone who cares.... Yankees, rays, rangers

Thanks AJ

Interesting sir...good luck and cash them.

I think what my goal is with this is to try to smooth out the effect of the home run.

I view home runs like turnovers in football. They effect the game a huge amount but aren't really predictable.

Last year the worst hit to run ratio was 2.34 the white Sox who coincidentally hit the least amount of home runs last year.

The best was Arizona at 1.64 who was top 5 in the amount of home runs hit last year.

I'm going at this with the approach I can't really predict home runs but I can look for teams who are getting hits but haven't been getting home runs too be undervalued

If you look more at the braves for example they are hitting wise some what similar to last year but a bulk of the difference is home runs. Last year top 5 team this year bottom ten home run team.

If you expect that home run number to rebound they may be a team to be on as soon as the long ball starts to show up