For what it’s worth, although I didn’t post anything yesterday, I did make one bet late.  It was the exact same bet that I made and lost on Game 2.  I bet 2 units on a parlay of the Yankees 1^st 5 and full game MLs at a very favorable +209.  I suppose that I could say that I didn’t post it because it was late, but the truth is that I couldn’t rationally justify my bet.  All I can say is that, despite what I saw in the first three games, I didn’t believe that the Yanks would get swept.  Although they hadn’t shown it, I firmly believed that the Yanks were better than that with too much pride to let that happen.  I also believe that this game didn’t really matter all that much to the Dodgers.  Even if they lost, they would still hold a commanding 3-1 lead and should still win this series.  The spot was very similar to where the Mets were going into Game 5 of the NLCS and the Mets went out and beat the Dodgers 12-6 to extend the series.         

I finished the day +4.18 units, leaving me +315.81 for the 2024 season.  For the first time in this series my gut was actually right as the Yankees rolled to an 11-4 win.  It kind of reminded me of Game 5 of the NLCS.

In Game 1, I thought that Gerrit Cole was better than Jack Flaherty.  I still think that, but in this game, while Cole pitched well, so did Flaherty and the Yanks’ offense never got untracled..

In Game 2, I foolishly bought into Carlos Rodon.  He had pitched really well over the second half of the season, but who was I kidding.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto was the better starting pitcher and that proved to be the case and again the Yanks didn’t hit.

In Game 3, I bet against Walker Buehler who had a horrible season, but again the Yanks didn’t hit.

I can’t explain the Yanks offensive in those first three games.  I really don’t think that it was the Dodger pitching.  With both Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw sidelined, their starting pitching looks mighty thin.  As for the bullpen, on paper it isn’t that good and it’s been used extensively in the postseason.  Whatever the reason, until last night, the Yanks haven’t hit.  And even last night, it wasn’t Judge or Soto on Stanton.  It was regular guys like Volpe, Verdugo and Torres doing the heavy lifting.                

Here are my thoughts on Game 5.

• Offensively, the stats say that while this should be close, the Dodgers do hold the statistical edge. While that edge is statistically small, It’s magnified by Aaron Judge’s dismal performance.  He needs to get it going.
• The Dodgers hold a clear statistical edge in the bullpen matchup. Their pen has been better than the Yanks’ pen.  It is true that the Dodgers have used their pen extensively in this series, but they rested most of their key arms last night.
• That brings is to the two starting pitchers. As mentioned above, both pitched well in Game 1.  I broke thist matchuo down in depth in my 10/24 post.  Here’s basically what I said.

Jack Flaherty started Game 1 giving up 2 runs on 5 hits and a walk over 5.1 innings.  In Game 2 of the Dodgers NLDS v the Padres he was roughed up for 4 runs on 5 hits and a walk over 5.1 innings, while striking out just 2 in a 10-2 loss.  He bounced right back in Game 3 of that series, tossing 7 shutout innings as he and two relievers combined to shut out the potent Mets in a 9-0 win. However, in Game 6 of the NLCS, the Mets jumped all over Flaherty for 3 runs in the 1^st and 5 more in the 3^rd, as the Mets rolled to a 12-6 blowout win. Flaherty had a solid regular season, but struggled some down the stretch, giving up 9 earned runs over his final 14 innings with a less than impressive 14/9 K/BB ratio.  Since being acquired by the Dodgers at the trade deadline, Flaherty posted a 6-2 record, but with a mediocre 1.28 WHIP, but decent 3.58 ERA in 10 start (55.1 IP).  However, his ERA metrics were all higher than that ERA, telling me that ERA should have been higher.  Flaherty was much better over the first half of the season.  His stat profile with the Dodgers, while definitely not as impressive as his first half with the Tigers, was nonetheless, still decent, but not as good as the Dodgers were hoping for.

Gerrit Cole didn’t have a typical Gerrit Cole season in 2024.  His last regular-season start against the Orioles was one of his best, but was one of just four scoreless starts that Cole produced this season.  In Game 1 of this series, Cole game up just 1 run on 4 hits over 6 innings, but in Game 2 of the ALCS, Cole was chased after just 4.1 erratic innings in which he gave up 2 runs on 6 hits and 4 walks.  His start in Game 1 of the Yankees’ ALDS against the Royals was also not impressive, as he gave up 4 runs 3 earned) on 7 hits over 5-plus innings.  However, Cole was dominant in his Game 4 start in KC, giving just 1 run over 7 innings in a 3-1 win over the Royals.  Which version we get tonight remains to be seen.  During the regular season, Cole posted a solid 1.13 WHIP and 3.41 ERA, with an impressive 99/29 K/BB ratio over 95 innings in 17 starts. Cole didn’t have a great regular season by his lofty standards, but with the exception of a slightly higher walk rate than usual, his stat profile was still solid.

Conclusion:  I didn’t see all that much difference between Cole and Flaherty during the regular season, especially over the second half, and the same goes for their postseason starts.   The Dodgers statistically have the better bullpen and the very slightly better of two very potent and dangerous offenses.  As for the two starting pitchers, based on their respective career track records, I give Cole the edge, but he will need help from his offense.  The Yanks big guns have to start hitting and yes, I’m pointing fingers directly at Judge here.      

I don’t think that the Yanks will win this series, but I do think that their bats heat up enough in their last game at Yankee Stadium to extend this series and at least get back to LA.

Pick – Parlay:  NYY 1^st 5 and full game MLs (+186 for 2 units)