For what it’s worth, last night’s game was a tough one to lose for the Yankees and for me.  I only had one play in that game, the Yankees’ 1^st 5 ML, and I lost it.  I really thought that the Yanks would get to Jack Flaherty and they ultimately did, but it was one inning too late.  That’s what makes 1^st 5 bets so damned tricky.  It’s tough enough to predict what will happen, but it’s damned near impossible to predict when something will happen.  I knew this could be close.  That’s why I only risked 1 unit on it.  I finished the day -1 unit, leaving me +315.63 for the 2024 season.

After the Yankees had taken a 3-2 lead in the top of the 10^th, Freddie Freeman hit the first game-ending grand slam in World Series history with two outs in the bottom of the 10^th to give the Dodgers a 6-3 win over the Yankees last night.

Here are my thoughts on Game 2. 

NYY @ LAD

After last night’s loss, the Yankees are now facing the prospect of heading back to NY down two games to none in this seven game series.  It may not be an absolute “must win” game, but it’s damned close to that.

Starting Pitchers

Edge – LAD

Carlos Rodon will get the start in Game 2 of the World Series tonight at the Dodgers.  The lefty went through his fair share of ups and downs during the regular season, posting a decent, but not great, 1.22 WHIP and 3.96 ERA, with a 195/57 K/BB ratio over 175 innings.  He also led the team in wins with 16.  Rodon finished on an upswing after adding a change-up to his repertoire, posting an impressive 2.20 ERA with a 34/10 K/BB ratio over 28.2 innings in his five September starts. In a less than impressive Game 2 ALDS start v the Royals, Rodon took the loss, giving up 4 runs on 7 hits and no walks over 3.2 innings, while striking out 7, but the lefty rebounded from that outing in Game 1 of the ALDS v the Guardians, holding them to 1 run (a solo HR) on 3 hits over 6 innings, while striking out 9.  Rodon also started the deciding Game 5 in that series, giving up 2 runs on 5 hits and a walk over 4.2 innings, while striking out 6.   In his three postseason starts, Rodon holds a 1.11 WHIP and 4.40 ERA with a 22/1 K/BB ratio over 14.1 innings.

The Dodgers will counter with Yoshinobu Yamamoto.  In Game 1 of the Dodgers NLDS v the Padres, Yamamoto, who had a history of struggling in the 1^stinning, fell behind 3-0 and gave up a total 5 runs on 5 hits, 3 walks and a wild pitch over 3 less than stellar innings, while striking out just 1.  However, Yamamoto bounced back in Game 5 of that series, delivering five shutout innings.  In his most recent start against the Mets in Game 4 of the NLCS, Yamamoto gave up 2 runs on 4 hits and a walk over 4.1 innings with 8 Ks.  That’s a total of 7 runs allowed on 12 hits (2 HRs) and 4 walks over just 12.1 innings, good for a solid 1.22 WHIP, but very high 5.11 ERA in his three postseason outings.  Yamamoto, who missed time with injuries, started 18 games for the Dodgers during the regular season, with 12 grading as above average and 6 grading as below.  He posted a fine stat profile that was across the board better than Rodon’s.

Bullpens

Edge – LAD

Offenses

Edge – LAD, but very close

Conclusion:  This is another really tough call.  I’m still not at all sure which of these two powerhouses is really the better team.  The Dodgers did win last night in a game one could argue that they could/should have lost.  They won four more games than the Yanks during the regular season and are favored in this game and this series, but it’s still all so damned close.  Offensively, both of these teams are loaded with more than enough firepower to win this series, but Game 1 was tied 2-2 after nine.  The Dodgers averaged a very slight 0.17 more runs per game during the regular season with a 6-point better wOBA, but a 1-point worse wRC+.  It should be noted that each team has one top hitter who has struggled in the postseason.  For the Yanks, it was Aaron Judge, who smacked 58 HRs and drove in 144 runs while posting a 218 wrC+ during the regular season, but has hit just 2 HRs and driven in 6 runs, while posting a 137 wRC+ coming into this series.  Judge went 1 for 5 last night and struck out 3 times.   For the Dodgers, it was Freddie Freeman, who’d been hampered by an ankle injury after hitting 22 HRs and driving in 89 runs, while posting a 137wRC+ during the regular season but slumped to 0 HRs and just 1 RBI with a 37 wRC+ in the postseason coming into this series.  Freeman said that he was 100%.  I know that I had my doubts, but that narrative definitely changed after last night’s game-winning grand slam.  If Freeman continues to hit like that and Judge continues to struggle, it could be a game changer for these two offenses.  Both bullpens got off to very rough starts and both got a lot better as the season progressed, but statistically, the Dodger pen was the better unit during the regular season, and has been mostly dominant during the postseason with a 6-0 record and 3 saves in 3 save opportunities, while posting a mediocre 1.30 WHIP, but solid 3.06 ERA with a 60/25 K/BB ratio. The Yanks’ pen, on the other hand, also has 5 postseason saves, but has now blown 3 saves, with a very comparable 1.28 WHIP and 3.19 ERA, with a 38/22 K/BB ratio.   I have been critical of the Yankee bullpen for most of the season, but my opinion softened considerably after they stopped using Clay Holmes as their closer.  It would soften even more if they would stop using Holmes in high leverage situations, but Boone went right back to him last night in the bottom of the 7^th with a man on 1^st in a 2-2 game and I thought the Yanks would lose it right there, especially after he hit the first batter.  Holmes did get the next two batters out before being pulled.  New closer Luke Weaver was 4 for 4 in save opportunities during the regular season with a stellar 0.92 WHIP and 2.89 ERA over 84 innings with 103 Ks.  He also was mostly very good in the postseason with 4 saves to 1 blown save with a 12/1 K/BB ratio over 12 innings.  However, other than Weaver, I’m still not sure about the rest of the Yanks’ pen.

That leaves the two starting pitchers, and while the full season stats all point to Yamamoto, the second half and postseason stats all point to this being a much closer matchup than the full season stats suggest.  I never know which Rodon we’ll get in any given start.  The good one can dominate any lineup including the Dodgers, while the bad one can get smacked around by any offense.  The stats say that the Dodgers struggled more against lefties than righties with a 15-point lower BA (.240 v /255), a lower wOBA (.317 v .341), and a lower wRC+ (101 v 117)    Both teams used their bullpens extensively last night so neither one gets a rest edge, but the Dodgers appeared to have the deeper and hence better pen coming into this series.  However, the loss of Evan Phillips really cuts into that edge. The Dodgers also have the slightly better of two very potent and dangerous offenses, but not so much against lefties.  As for the two starting pitchers, the full season stats say Yamamoto, but the second half and postseason stats say pick-em.  The only real edge that I give the Yankees is the desperation factor.  They need it more, a lot more.  Is that enough?  Damned if I know.    

In my mind, Game 2 is even closer than I thought Game 1 was so it’s far from a sure thing and I could easily be totally wrong however I bet it, so I’m keeping my bet sizes at one unit, but in a close game and at plus money, I’m going right bacl tp the dog tonight. 

Pick – NYY 1^st 5 ML (+120 for 1 unit) and NYY full game ML (+125 for 1 unit)