For what it’s worth, we haven’t had any MLB since the Dodgers finished off the Mets last Sunday night in LA.  I had one play in that game, the Dodgers ML, and it cashed easily.  I finished the day +1.43 units, leaving me +316.63 for the 2024 season.

Tommy Edman and Will Smith both hit two-run HRs to send the Dodgers to the World Series, with a 10-5 win over the Mets. The Dodgers move on to the World Series where they’ll host the Yankee in Game 1 this Friday night much to the delight of MLB, who really wanted this matchup.

I took a few days off to clear my head, but I’m back and here are my thoughts on Game 1. 

NYY @ LAD

The Yankees, who won the AL East and finished the regular season 94-68, got here by taking three of four from the Royals in the ALDS and four of five from the Guardians in the ALCS.

The Dodgers, who won the NL West and finished the regular season 98-64, got here by taking three of five from the Padres in the NLDS and four of six from the Mets in the NLCS.

Starting Pitchers

Edge – None

Gerrit Cole will get the start for the Yankees in Game 1.  Cole didn’t have a typical Gerrit Cole season in 2024.  His last regular-season start against the Orioles was one of his best, but was one of just three scoreless starts that Cole produced this season.  However, is his most recent start in Game 2 of the ALCS, Cole was chased after just 4.1 erratic innings in which he gave up 2 runs on 6 hits and 4 walks while striking out 4.  His start in Game 1 of the Yankees’ ALDS against the Royals was also not impressive, as he gave up 4 runs 3 earned) on 7 hits over 5-plus innings.  However, Cole was dominant in his Game 4 start in KC, giving just 1 run over 7 innings in a 3-1 win over the Royals.  Which version we get in Game 1 remains to be seen.  Cole’s performance in his three postseason starts wasn’t all that impressive.  He gave up 7 runs (6 earned) on 19 hits and 6 walks over 16.1 innings with 12 Ks, while posting a high 1.53 WHIP, but solid 3.31 ERA with a 12/6 K/BB ratio.  During the regular season, Cole posted a solid 1.13 WHIP and 3.41 ERA, with an impressive 99/29 K/BB ratio over 95 innings in 17 starts. Cole didn’t have a great regular season by his lofty standards, and he has struggled in two of his three postseason starts.  That given, wwith the exception of a slightly higher walk rate than usual, his stat profile was still solid.

The Dodgers will start Jack Flaherty in Game 1.  He will be making his fourth postseason start this season.   Flaherty started Game 2 of the Dodgers NLDS v the Padres and was roughed up for 4 runs on 5 hits and a walk over 5.1 innings, while striking out just 2 in a 10-2 loss.  He bounced right back in Game 3 of that series, tossed 7 shutout innings as he and relievers Daniel Hudson and Ben Casparius combined to shut out the potent Mets in a 9-0 win. However, in his most recent start in Game 6 of the NLCS, the Mets jumped all over Flaherty for 3 runs in the 1^st on a three-run Pete Alonzo HR, and 5 more in the 3^rd, as the Mets rolled to a 12-6 blowout win. That’s three poor outings in Flaherty’s four postseason starts, while posting a very high 1.43 WHIP and ugly 7.04 ERA.  Flaherty had a solid regular season, but struggled some down the stretch, giving up 9 earned runs over his final 14 innings with a less than impressive 14/9 K/BB ratio.  Since being acquired by the Dodgers at the trade deadline, Flaherty posted a 6-2 record, but with a mediocre 1.28 WHIP, but decent 3.58 ERA in 10 start (55.1 IP).  However, his ERA metrics were all higher than that ERA, telling me it should have been higher, with a 61/19 K/BB ratio.  Flaherty was much better over the first half of the season.  His stat profile with the Dodgers, while definitely not as impressive as his first half with the Tigers, was nonetheless, still decent, but not as good as the Dodgers were hoping for.

Bullpens

Edge – LAD

Offenses

Edge – LAD, but very close

Conclusion:  This is a really tough call.  I’m not at all sure which of these two powerhouses is really the better team.  The Dodgers did win four more games than the Yanks during the regular season and are small favorites in this game and this series, but it’s all so damned close.  Offensively, both of these teams are loaded with more than enough firepower to win this series.  The Dodgers averaged just 0.17 more runs per game during the regular season with a 6-point better wOBA, but a 1-point worse wRC+.  It should be noted that each team has one top hitter who has struggled in the postseason.  For the Yanks, it’s been Aaron Judge, who smacked 58 HRs and drove in 144 runs while posting  a 218 wrC+ during the regular season, but has hit just 2 HRs and driven in 6 runs, while posting a 137 wRC+m but slumped .  For the Dodgers, it’s Freddie Freeman, who’s been hampered by an ankle injury after hitting 22 HRs and driving in 89 runs, while posting a 137wRC+ during the regular season but slumped to 0 HRs and just 1 RBI with a 37 wRC+ in the postseason.  Freelman now says that he;s 110%.  We’ll see.  I don’t see much difference between these two offenses.  Both bullpens got off to very rough starts and both got a lot better as the season progressed, but statistically, the Dodger pen was the better unit, and has been mostly dominant during the postseason with a 5-0 record and 3 saves in 3 save opportunities, while posting a 1.26 WHIP and 3.16 ERA with a 53/22 K/BB ratio. The Yanks’ pen, on the other hand, also has 5 postseason saves, but has also blown 3 saves, with a very comparable 1.27 WHIP and a lower 2.56 ERA, but with an less impressive 38/20 K/BB ratio.   I have been critical of the Yankee bullpen for most of the season, but my opinion softened considerably after they stopped using Clay Holmes as their closer.  It would soften even more if they completely stopped using Holmes in high leverage situations, but I doubt that happens because the Yanks’ pen lacks depth.  New closer Luke Weaver was 4 for 4 in save opportunities during the regular season with a stellar 0.92 WHIP and 2.89 ERA over 84 innings with 103 Ks.  He also was mostly very good in the postseason with 4 saves to 1 blown save with a 12/1 K/BB ratio over 10.1 innings.  However, other than Weaver, I’m just not sure about the rest of the Yanks’ pen.

That leaves the two starting pitchers, and while Flaherty had the better full season stat profile, it was close.  Over the second half of the season, I didn’t see much difference between Cole and Flaherty and the same goes for their postseason starts The Dodgers appear to have the deeper and hence better bullpen and the very slightly better of two very potent and dangerous offenses.  However, based on their respective career track records, I am inclined to give Cole an edge over Flaherty because he;s been dominant for so damned long. 

This is far from a sure thing and I could be totally out to lunch here, so I’m dropping my bet size down to one unit, but at plus money… 

  Pick – NYY 1^st 5 ML (+105 for 1 unit)