For what it’s worth, I only had one play yesterday.  I had the Yankees 1^st 5 ML in a side bet and it lost.  I finished the day -2 units, leaving me +315.20 for the 2024 season.

Carlos Rodon was OK last night, but not as dominant as he was in Game 1.  He gave up a run in the 2^nd on a Josh Naylor infield single and a Bo Naylor double.  Rodon gave up another run in the 5^th on an Andres Giminez double and a two-out Stephen Kwan single. 

By contrast, I thought that Tanner Bibee, who was pitching on just three day’s rest, would run out of gas and he did, just one inning too late for me.  Giancalo Stanton hit a two-run HR in the 6^th to tie the game at 2-2, and Juan Soto won it in the 10^th with a three-run shot.  Stanton’s HR was his 5^th of this postseason and 4^th in this series.  Soto’s was also his 3^rd of this series.       

We now move on to today’s Game 6 of the NLCS between the Mets and the Dodgers in LA.  Here are my thoughts on that game.

NYM @ LAD

The Mets, faced with elimination in Game 5, jumped all over Jack Flaherty for 3 runs in the 1^st on a three-run Pete Alonzo HR, and 5 more in the 3^rd, as the Mets rolled to a 12-6 blowout win over the Dodgers.  It was Flaherty’s second poor outing in his three postseason starts.

Starting Pitchers

Edge - NYM

Sean Manaea will get the start for the Mets tonight in Game 6 of the Mets NLCS at the Dodgers.  The 32-year-old southpaw has now stated three postseason games, giving up a total of 6 runs (5 earned) on 11 hits (2 HRs) and 6 walks over 17 innings, while posting a 1.00 WHIP and 2.65 ERA, with a 17/6 K/BB ratio.  In his Game 2 start at the Dodgers Manaea gave up 3 runs (2 earned) on 2 hits and 4 walks over 5 innings with 7 Ks.  He posted a fine 1.08 WHIP and 3.47 ERA, with a 184/63 K/BB ratio over 181.2 regular season innings this season.

Michael Kopech will serve as the Dodgers' opener tonight in Game 6 of the NLCS against the Mets.  Kopech's only appearance in this series came in Game 3 on Wednesday, when he tossed 1 scoreless inning, struck out 1 and picked up the win  He's appeared in five postseason games this season, tossing 4.1 scoreless innings and giving up just 1  hit and 2 walks while striking out 6.  After the Dodgers rescued him from the White Sox at the trade deadline, Kopech appeared in 24 regular season games, posting a 4-0 record with 6 saves in 6 save opportunities, 8 holds, a 0.79 WHIP and 1.13 ERA over 24 innings with a 29/10 K/BB ratio.  It should also be noted that Kopech never went more than one inning in any of his appearances, so I expect he won’t go much deeper in this one.        

Bullpens

Edge – LAD, big

Offenses

Edge – LAD

Conclusion:  The Dodgers, who now lead this NLCS three games to two, are the better team here.  They won 9 more games than the Mets during the regular season and won the NL West, earning a wild card bye, while the Mets had to get by the Phils in the wild card round and the Brewers in the NLDS.  Offensively, while these were both very good hitting teams during the regular season, the Dodgers averaged almost a half a run more per game with an 11-point better wOBA and 11-point better wRC+.  They have also outscored the Mets 36-21 in this series.  Both bullpens got off to very rocky starts and both got better as the season progressed, but statistically the Dodger pen was the better unit, and has been mostly dominating during the postseason with 2 saves in 2 save opportunities, while posting a 1.18 WHIP and 2.94 ERA with a 45/18 K/BB ratio.  The Mets’ pen, on the other hand, has posted 3 saves, but also two blown saves, with a lousy 1.50 WHIP and 5.33 ERA with a 57/29 K/BB ratio.  As for the two starting pitchers, Sean Manaea resurrected his career from the scrap heap this season, putting together a fine season.  He is probab;y the Mets’ best and most reliable starting pitcher.  In his five appearances as an opener, Ryan Brasier has also performed well, but most of those appearance were for just one inning and shouldn’t matter.  The Dodgers will put this one on the backs of their bullpen, and since they lead this series 3-2, it’s not do or die for them, like it is for the Mets.

The Dodgers are the better team here.  They have the much better bullpen and the better of two potent offenses.  While Manaea obviously will have an edge in the starting pitching matchup, if for no other reason than that he should go deeper than Kopech wii, he will also be facing a scary dangerous Dodgers’ offense.

I can’t bet a 1^st 5 on an opener, so I’m betting on the better team, the Dodgers, to end this series today.   

Pick – LAD full game ML (-140 for 2 units) in a side bet