For what it’s worth, I posted two plays yesterday and I was damned lucky to get a split. I lost a little, but it could have been much worse.
I had the Dodgers 1st 5 and full game MLs in a parlay and that was an awful pick. It never had a chance as the Mets, facing elimination, jumped all over Jack Flaherty for 3 runs in the 1st on a three-run Pete Alonzo HR, and 5 more in the 3rd, as the Mets rolled to a 12-6 blowout win over the Dodgers last night. It was Flaherty’s second poor outing in his three postseason starts.
In the nightcap, I had the Yankees ML and was damned lucky to eke out a win as the Yankees scratched out two runs in the 9th against the Guardians’ All-Star closer Emmanuel Chase and bouncing back from a gut-wrenching loss on Thursday, beating the Guardians 8-6 last night to take a 3-1 lead in the ALCS.
Yanks manager Aaron Boone really pissed me off, by going right back to former closer Clay Holmes one day after he gave up a two-run HR to David Fry in the 10th in a 7-5 Yankee loss. In the top of the 7th with the Yanks leading 6-2, Boone again went to Holmes with men on 1st and 3rd and no outs. After striking out Fry, Homes then proceeded to give up back-to-back doubles to Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor to make it 6-5 Yanks. After walking Lee Thonas, Boone finally pulled Holes. Mark Leiter got the final two outs to end the inning without further damage. The Guardians tied it at 6-6 in the 8th before the Yanks finally won it in the 9th. As I’ve been saying all season long, Holmes just can’t be trusted in high leverage situations.
I finished the day -0.26 units, leaving me +317.20 for the 2024 season.
We now move on to today’s Game 5 of the ALCS between the Yankees and the Guardians. Here are my thoughts on that game.
NYY @ CLEV
Starting Pitchers
8:08
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
NYY
|
Rodon - L (16-9)
|
(17/32)
|
(14/32)
|
1.22
|
3.96
|
4.14
|
4.39
|
4.09
|
3.78
|
0.320
|
0.317
|
26.5%
|
7.7%
|
CLEV
|
Bibee - R (12-8)
|
(20/311)
|
(11/31)
|
1.12
|
3.47
|
3.80
|
3.56
|
3.58
|
3.58
|
0.299
|
0.305
|
23.6%
|
6.2%
|
Edge – NYY
Carlos Rodon will start Game 5 of the ALCS tonight at the Guardians. The lefty went through his fair share of ups and downs during the regular season, posting a decent, but not great, 1.22 WHIP and 3.96 ERA, with a 195/57 K/BB ratio over 175 innings. He also led the team in wins with 16. Rodon finished on an upswing after adding a change-up to his repertoire, posting an impressive 2.20 ERA with a 34/10 K/BB ratio over 28.2 innings in his five September starts. In his Game 2 ALDS start v the Royals, Rodon took the loss, giving up 4 runs on 7 hits and no walks over 3.2 innings, while striking out 7, but the lefty rebounded from that loss in Game 1 of this series, holding the Guardians to 1 run (a solo HR) on 3 hits over 6 innings, while striking out 9.
Tanner Bibee started 31 regular season games for the Guardians this season with 20 grading as above average and just 11 grading as below, while posting a solid 1.12 WHIP and 3.47 ERA with a 187/44 K/BB ratio over 173.2 innings. The 25-year-old also pitched particularly well late in the season, posting a 2.64 ERA in his five September starts. Bibee tossed 4.2 shutout innings in Game 1 of the Guardians ALDS v the Tigers and then gave up 2 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks over 4 innings while striking out 3 in Game 4 of that series. He didn't fare as well in his most recent outing in Game 2 of this series, giving up 3 runs (2 earned) and lasting just 1.1 innings. The one silver lining is that his abbreviated start now allows him to pitch on short (4 days) rest today.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
CLEV
|
42
|
12
|
53
|
16
|
78.5%
|
1
|
0.33
|
1
|
0.200
|
1
|
1.05
|
1
|
2.57
|
1
|
26.0%
|
3
|
8.1%
|
7
|
NYY
|
29
|
20
|
45
|
21
|
72.6%
|
12
|
0.47
|
12
|
0.223
|
8
|
1.24
|
10
|
3.62
|
6
|
23.9%
|
12
|
9.1%
|
19
|
Edge – CLEV
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
CLEV
|
4.40
|
14
|
0.238
|
21
|
0.306
|
17
|
100
|
16
|
0.157
|
12
|
7.9%
|
18
|
-1.0
|
17
|
20.2%
|
5
|
28.7%
|
29
|
NYY
|
5.03
|
3
|
0.248
|
8
|
0.331
|
3
|
117
|
2
|
0.181
|
3
|
10.8%
|
1
|
-16.9
|
30
|
21.2%
|
3
|
33.1%
|
5
|
Edge – NYY
Conclusion: The Yankees are the better team here. They won two more games than the Guardians during the regular season and they’re up three games to one in this series. The Yankees were the clearly better hitting team during the regular season averaging almost two-thirds of a run more per game with a 25-point better wOBA and a 17-point better wRC+. That has been the case in the first four games of this series as well, as they outscored the Guardians 26-18. However, when we compare these two bullpens, it’s the Guardians who hold the edge. The Guardians’ pen has been elite all season and may well have been the best unit in baseball, ranking 1st in strand rate, runs allowed per inning pitched, BA against, WHIP and ERA, as well as 3rd in K rate. Those are some damned impressive numbers! On the other hand, I have been critical of the Yankee bullpen for most of the season, but my opinion has softened considerably since they stopped using Clay Holmes as their closer. It would soften even more if they completely stopped using Holmes in high leverage situations. New closer Luke Weaver was 4 for 4 in save opportunities during the regular season with a stellar 0.92 WHIP and 2.89 ERA over 84 innings with 103 Ks. He also had been lights out in the postseason with 4 saves in 4 save opportunities and 9 Ks in 6 innings. That was until Game 3 of this series when he gave up a game-tying two-run HR to blow the save and send the game into extra innings, but he didn’t get used last night, so he should be available tonight. Neither pen distinguished itself last night with the Yanks’ pen giving up 4 runs on 8 hits and 4 walks over the final five innings, and the Guardians’ pen, not to be outdone, gave up 5 runs on 7 hits over the final 6.2 innings. The Yanks’ pen is still much better today than it was a few months ago, but they were looking mighty thin last night. The Guardians; pen didn’t look a lot better. the Guardians still have arguably the best pen in baseball, but the Yanks have narrowed the gap. That leaves the two starting pitchers and that’s close, but with the exception of a slightly lower K rate, Carlos Rodon has the better stat profile and his recent numbers have been mostly very good. Still, truth be told, I still don’t know what to expect from Rodon in any given start. He can be so damned inconsistent. If we get the good Rodon tonight, he will dominate the Guardians fairly mediocre offense, much like he did in Game 1. However, if we don’t, it could be a long night for the Yanks and Rodon.
Another concern I have is that the Guardians are now down three games to one at home and facing elimination. This is a “must win” game for them. If they lose it, there is no tomorrow. That makes the Guardians desperate and very dangerous.
I’m pretty sure that the Yanks will win this series, but I’m not sure that they’ll win it tonight. As mentioned, I’m not sure about Rodon either, but I think that he has a better chance of shutting down the Guardians’ mediocre offense for five innings that Bibee has of doing the same against a much better Yanks’ offense and that’s how I’m betting it.
Pick – NYY 1st 5 ML (-117 for 2 units) in a side bet