For what it’s worth, I didn’t post a play yesterday.  I thought that the game between the Dodgers and the Mets was too close and while I believed that the Dodgers were the better team, I had zero confidence in Walker Buehler, so I passed.  I was wrong about the game being close and also wrong about Buehler.

!'m still up +315.36 units for the 2024 season.  I guess I’ve been lucky that most of my losses in this postseason were small and my wins were large enough to more than offset them.   

We now move on to Games 3 of the ALCS and NLCS and I am betting both games.  Here is the card.

Here are my thoughts on those two games.

 CLEV @ NYY

Aaron Judge, who led the majors with 58 homers and 144 RBIs, hit his first HR of this postseason as the Yankees beat the Guardians 6-3 in Game 2 of the ALCS.  With the Yanks leading 4-2 lead in the bottom of the 7^th, the likely AL MVP drove a Hunter Gaddis fastball 414 feet to center for his 14^th career postseason HR. 

Starting Pitchers

Edge – Nome

Clarke Schmidt will get the start for the Yankees tonight in Game 3 of this ALCS.  The Yanks opted to go with Schmidt rather than Luis Gilm who will be available out of the Yanks’ bullpen.  Schmidt gave up 2 runs on 4 hits and a walk over 4.2 innings, while striking out 4 in the Yank 3-1 win in Game 3 of their ALDS at the Royals.   A right lat strain limited Schmidt to just 16 starts and 85.1 innings during the regular season, but he was outstanding when healthy, posting a 1.18 WHIP and 2.85 ERA, with a 93/30 K/BB ratio.

Matther Boyd will get the start for the Guardians today.  In his Game 5 ALDS start v the Tigers, Boyd was surprisingly pulled after just 2 innings despite holding the Tigers scoreless on just 1 hit with 4 Ks and in his Game 2 start in that series, Boyd tossed 4.2 scoreless innings, giving up 4 hits and 2 walks with 5 Ks.  That’s 6.2 scoreless postseason innings with 9 Ks!  The lefty joined the Guardians this season, but began the season on the IL with an elbow injury before making his Guardians’ debut on August 13. He posted a solid 1.13 WHIP and superb 2.72 ERA, with a 46/13 K/BB ratio over 39.2 innings in 8 starts, but that’s still a small sample size and he has walked 9 batters in his last four outings. 

Bullpens

Edge – CLEV

Offenses

Edge – NYY

Conclusion:  For the most part, the Yankees are the better team here.  They won two more games than the Guardians during the regular season and they’re up two games to none in this series.  The Yankees were the clearly better hitting team during the regular season averaging almost two-thirds of a run more per game with a 25-point better wOBA and a 17-point better wRC+.  That has certainly been the case in this series as well.  However, when we compare these two bullpens, it’s the Guardians who hold the edge.  The Guardians’ pen has been elite all season and may well have been the best in baseball, ranking 1^st in strand rate, runs allowed per inning pitched, BA against, WHIP and ERA, as well as 3^rd in K rate.  Those are some damned impressive numbers!   I have been critical of the Yankee bullpen for most of the season, but my opinion has softened considerably since they stopped using Clay Holmes as their closer.  New closer Luke Weaver was 4 for 4 in save opportunities during the regular season with a stellar 0.92 WHIP and 2.89 ERA over 84 innings with 103 Ks.  He has also been lights out in the postseason with 4 saves in 4 save opportunities and 9 Ks in 6 innings.   The Yanks’ pen is so much better today than it was a few months ago.  Still, the Guardians had arguably the best pen in baseball, but the Yanks have narrowed that gap significantly.  That leaves the two starting pitchers and that’s a really close matchup.  Schmidt had the better ratio of above to below average starts, but Boyd had the slight better ERA and comparable ERA metrics, as well as a better wOBA, xwOBA and slightly better K and walk rates, but the sample size was small.  I guess that I’d have to give Boyd a slight edge based on the stats, but Boyd will also be facing a very potent Yanks offense, while Schmidt will face a Guardians offense that, while it got off to a very fast start over the first month of the season, but has been very mediocre since.

Down two games to none, this is pretty much a “must win” for the Guardians.  If they lose this game, they would need to win four straight and I just don’t see that happening.  Still, “must win” doesn’t necessarily mean will win.  It’s close, but the Yankees are still the better team. 

Pick – NYY full game ML in a side bet

NYM @ LAD

Kiké Hernández hit a two-run HR in the 6^th to give the Dodgers a o 4-0 lead in Game 3 of their NLDS at the Mets.  Shohei Ohtani added a three-run HR in the 8^th and Max Muncy hit a solo shot in the 9^th to power the Dodgers to an easy 8-0 win in Game 3 of the NLCS and a two to one series lead.  Winless since May 18, Walker Buehler tossed 4 scoreless innings, giving up 3 hits and striking out 6.  Buehler combined with four relievers on the 4-hit shutout

Starting Pitchers

Edge LAD

Bullpens

Edge – LAD, big

Offenses

Edge – LAD

In Game 1 of the Dodgers NLDS v the Padres, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has had a history of struggling in the 1^st, fell behind 3-0 and gave up a total 5 runs on 5 hits, 3 walks and a wild pitch over 3 innings, while striking out just 1.  However, Yamamoto bounced back in Game 5, delivering five shutout innings.  Yamamoto, who missed time with injuries, started 18 games for the Dodgers during the regular season, with 12 grading as above average and 6 grading as below.  He posted a fine stat profile that was across the board clearly better than Jose Quintana’s.

Quintana will get the start today after giving up just 1 unearned run over 11 innings in his two postseason starts this season, at the Brewers and v the Phils.  Including those two outings, Quintana now boasts a 0.57 ERA over his last eight starts dating back to late August. That’s in stark contrast to his regular season stat profile, which was very mediocre and across the board much worse than Yamamoto’s.

Conclusion:  The Dodgers should be the better team here.  They won 9 more games than the Mets during the regular season and won the NL West, earning a wild card bye, while the Mets had to get by  the Phils in the wild card round and the Brewers in the NLDS.  Offensively, these were both very good hitting teams during the regular season, but of the two, the Dodgers averaged almost a half a run more per game with an 11-point better wOBA and 11-point better wRC+.  Both bullpens got off to very rocky starts and both got better as the season progressed, but statistically the Dodger pen was the better unit, and has been  mostly dominating during the postseason with 2 saves in 2 save opportunities, while posting a 1.10 WHIP and 3.55 ERA with a 59/25 K/BB ratio.  The Mets’ pen, on the other hand, has posted 3 saves, but also two blown saves, with a mediocre 1.33 WHIP and 3.70 ERA.  As for the two starting pitchers, Jose Quintana is indeed having a stellar postseason, but also coming off a very mediocre regular season.  Yamamoto’s postseason wasn’t as impressive as Quintana’s but his regular season stat profile was much better.   

The Dodgers are the better team here, and despite Quintana’s two stellar postseason outings, the overall stats give Yamamoto a significant edge in the starting pitching matchup.  As impressive as Quintana’s two postseason starts have been, it’s only two starts and his full season numbers paint a vastly different picture and tell me to expect some regression from him, and tonight, he will be facing a scary dangerous Dodgers’ offense.    

Pick – LAD 1^st 5 and full game MLs in a same game parlay