For what it’s worth, yesterday I will consider myself lucky that the Padres and Tigers came through for me because the Brewers crapped all over themselves and the Orioles couldn’t score even one lousy run.
I finished the day -12.62 units and am now +292.59 units for the season. That’s still an amazing turnround for someone who spent the first five month of the 2024 season struggling to get out of his own way.
2024 has been a truly strange season for me. The really strange thing is that after getting Covid and missing about a week, when I was finally well enough to resume picking games my picking suddenly and inexplicably improved dramatically. I can’t explain it and I won’t even try. I was too damned sick to do much detailed handicapping and I wasn’t doing anything differently, but I just started winning like crazy. I’m guess that It was just one of those weird coincidences and probably didn’t mean a damned thing. However, I do think that almost six months into the 2024 MLB season, I had a better handle on who or what these MLB teams really were.
It's day 2 of the playoffs and we again have four wild card games today, but I only like two of them today. Here’s the card.
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ML Parlays
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Team
|
Team #2
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Odds
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Units
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
HOU ML
|
148
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sides
|
NYM 1st 5 ML
|
|
-103
|
2
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Here are my thoughts on these two games.
DET @ HOU
The Tigers beat the Astros 3-1 as ace Tarik Skubal continued his stellar season with a tremendous playoff debut and the Tigers got to Framber Valdez early. Skubal, the AL pitching Triple Crown winner, gave up just 4 singles and walked 1 over 6 innings.
Starting Pitchers
|
2:30
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
DET
|
Holton - L (7-2)
|
(3/9)
|
(5/9)
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0.78
|
2.19
|
2.75
|
3.17
|
3.68
|
3.48
|
0.221
|
0.261
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21.8%
|
4.8%
|
|
HOU
|
Brown - R (11-9)
|
(19/30)
|
(10/30)
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1.27
|
3.49
|
3.27
|
3.58
|
3.47
|
3.70
|
0.296
|
0.284
|
25.1%
|
8.4%
|
Edge – HOU
Allow me to explain myself here. The raw stats seem to indicate that Holton was the better pitcher this season, but I think that in this case the stats are deceiving us. Holton was used most as a reliever, working out of the Tigers bullpen. He only started 9 games and just 3 of his starts graded as above average, while the other 6 graded as below. Holton will be used as the Tigers’ opener open today. He'll likely only throw an inning or two before turning things over to Reese Olson. Holton has gone as long as 3 innings in four of his 66 appearances. Olson pitched decently, ut was limited in his final 3 starts after returning from a shoulder injury. The 25-year-old had a solid season overall, posting a 1.18 WHIP and 3.53 ERA while recording 101 Ks over 112.1 innings.
Hunter Brown started 30 games for the Astros with 19 grading as above average and just 10 grading as below, but the interesting thing is that after the AS break 10 of his 12 starts graded as above average with just 2 grading as below. Overall, Brown posted a solid WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics, as well as a below league average wOBA and xwOBA. Brown also struck out well over a batter per innings.
Edge – HOU
Bullpens
|
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
R/IP
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
|
DET
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46
|
36
|
45
|
26
|
71.6%
|
17
|
0.45
|
4
|
0.221
|
6
|
1.14
|
2
|
3.55
|
5
|
21.8%
|
24
|
7.3%
|
1
|
|
HOU
|
29
|
26
|
43
|
26
|
75.7%
|
3
|
0.46
|
7
|
0.226
|
10
|
1.25
|
11
|
3.66
|
8
|
25.4%
|
5
|
9.4%
|
21
|
Edge – DET, slight
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
|
DET
|
4.21
|
19
|
0.234
|
23
|
0.299
|
25
|
95
|
21
|
0.151
|
21
|
7.9%
|
18
|
5.3
|
9
|
24.3%
|
23
|
29.8%
|
25
|
|
HOU
|
4.60
|
10
|
0.262
|
3
|
0.321
|
7
|
111
|
5
|
0.157
|
12
|
7.3%
|
27
|
-12.8
|
28
|
19.3%
|
2
|
30.0%
|
24
|
Edge – HOU, big
Conclusion: Despite what we saw yesterday, the Astros are the better team here and they’ve been here before, so they also have a clear experience edge. Most importamt;y they won’t have to face Tarik Skubal today. The Astros are the much better hitting team here. They averaged over a third more runs per game than the Tigers with a 22-point better wOBA and a 16-point better wRC+. The Tigers are the worst hitting team in the playoffs and it should cost them today. Yesterday was all about Tarik Skubal. He has been that good and was again yesterday. That’s not the case today.
Pick – HOU 1st 5 ML and full game ML in a parlay
NYM @ MIL
The Mets beat the Brewers 8-4 last night.
Starting Pitchers
|
7:30
|
SP
|
GS+
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|
NYM
|
Manaea - L (12-6)
|
(24/32)
|
(7/32)
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1.08
|
3.47
|
3.75
|
3.83
|
4.04
|
3.97
|
0.275
|
0.303
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24.9%
|
8.5%
|
|
MIL
|
Montas 0 R (7-11)
|
(12/30)
|
(17/30)
|
1.37
|
4.84
|
4.71
|
4.71
|
4.26
|
4.38
|
0.325
|
0.336
|
22.6%
|
10.1%
|
Edge – NYM
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 bet only
Offenses
|
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
AVG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
|
NYM
|
4.74
|
7
|
0.247
|
11
|
0.321
|
7
|
109
|
7
|
0.169
|
7
|
8.4%
|
7
|
-8.7
|
23
|
22.4%
|
16
|
32.3%
|
8
|
|
MIL
|
4.80
|
6
|
0.248
|
8
|
0.319
|
10
|
104
|
10
|
0.155
|
18
|
9.7%
|
2
|
19.8
|
1
|
23.6%
|
18
|
31.6%
|
12
|
Edge – NYM, but close
Conclusion: These two teams can both hit, but of the two, the Mets have the slightly better offensive stat profile. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and the Mets Sean Manaea has been the clearly better and more consistent starting pitcher this season.
Manaea was knocked around by the Brewers in Milwaukee in his final start of the regular season, but it's still no surprise that he's getting the nod for Game 2. Manaea posted a fine 1.08 WHIP and 3.47 ERA, with a 184/63 K/BB ratio over 181.2 innings this season.
It has to be scary for Brewer fans that Frankie Montas will take the mound as the Brewers face elimination Wednesday after losing the series opener last night. The right-hander finished the 2024 regular season with a lousy 1.37 WHIP and 4.84 ERA, with a 148 Ks over 150.2 innings in 30 starts with the Reds and Brewers. Montas has made two career postseason appearances, giving up 7 earned runs on 10 hits and a walk while striking out 6 over 6.2 innings.
Manaea’s been a lot better than Montas this season and you seriously have to seriously question a Brewers starting rotation with Montain as the #2 guy.
Pick – NYM 1st 5 ML in a side bet